A five-year forecast projects a stable budget for Toledo Public Schools, so long as voters keep the cash coming.
The district does not envision asking for new tax money during the half-decade span. But the forward-looking financial estimate unanimously accepted Tuesday by the Toledo Board of Education depends on renewing three local levies that will expire over the duration of the forecast.
The first of those tax measures — a five-year, 6.5-mill levy generating nearly $13.8 million a year — goes before voters Nov. 7. It was last renewed in 2013.
In November of 2018, the district plans to ask voters to renew two other levies that generate a combined $27 million a year.
The financial health of the district — and the veracity of its projections — hinges on successful renewal campaigns.
“This forecast could look a lot different if we don’t pass the levies,” said board member Bob Vasquez.
The district estimates expenses will grow from $380.5 million for the fiscal year ending June 30 to slightly more than $430 million by 2021.
RELATED CONTENT: Toledo Public Schools five-year forecast
To help offset that, TPS plans to tap into its current $50 million cash balance beginning in 2020. The fund could dwindle to $32.6 million by 2021, though Treasurer Ryan Stechschulte said that is a conservative estimate.
Most of the district’s increased expenses are driven by personnel costs. Salaries are predicted to bump up by roughly $36 million over those five years — from $162.1 million to $198.3 million. That increase includes a three-year contract with the teachers union approved by the board last week.
The new contract starts July 1 and includes a 5 percent raise over the first two years and pay boosts across the salary grid in the third year.
The district still is negotiating contracts with two other employee unions.
TPS expects enrollment to hold flat at about 21,862 students. It also projects the number of children who live in the district and opt to attend charter schools — currently about 8,600 — to remain steady.
State support is anticipated to go up modestly each year, though it is tricky for officials to predict funding levels in Ohio’s budget.
Mr. Stechschulte built the forecast using what he knows now — including details from the two-year budget that passed the Ohio House of Representatives — but the amounts for fiscal years 2018 and 2019 could change depending on the Senate version and the final signed document.
How the state will fund schools in 2020 and 2021 is even more uncertain, so he planned for only a minimal increase.
Mr. Stechschulte currently estimates the district will receive $271.1 million in state foundation dollars for the fiscal year that begins July 1. That’s up from $257.4 million this year.
The state requires school districts to prepare a five-year forecast.
The board of education will consider the approval of the fiscal year 2018 budget at its June meeting.
“It’s a very good picture,” Mr. Stechschulte said of the forecast. “If our assumptions are within the ballpark, we should be financially stable through 2021.”
Contact Vanessa McCray at: vmccray@theblade.com or 419-724-6065, or on Twitter @vanmccray.
First Published May 24, 2017, 4:00 a.m.
