COLUMBUS — They’re concentrating now on Michigan, but a new poll released Monday eight days out from Ohio’s primary election shows that Rick Santorum has held on to the lead he built here in recent weeks over Mitt Romney.
Thirty-six percent of likely Ohio Republican voters say they intend to vote for the former Pennsylvania senator with 29 percent saying they support the former Massachusetts governor. That’s exactly where the two were in the last Quinnipiac Poll on Feb. 15, suggesting that Mr. Santorum has not suffered in the eyes of Buckeye Republicans from what critics considered a defensive debate performance last week in Arizona.
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich flags with 17 percent, down 3 points from the last survey. He made just two Ohio campaign appearances several weeks ago, but has since largely concentrated on the Super Tuesday state of Georgia. It’s his home state and is adjacent to South Carolina where he experienced his sole primary election win.
Texas Congressman Ron Paul, who has yet to make his first campaign appearance in Ohio, brings up the rear at 11 percent, up 2 points.
How Ohioans plan to vote, however, doesn’t necessarily translate into confidence that their chosen candidate can beat Democratic President Barack Obama in November. Forty percent said they believe Mr. Romney has the best shot of winning the White House compared to just 25 percent for Mr. Santorum.
Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Connecticut-based Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, noted 45 percent of those questioned said they could change their minds before March 6.
“The situation eight days out from primary day and what happens on primary day often are widely different,’’ he said. “That was certainly the case in Florida. Gingrich was up double digits eight days out. He lost by double digits. Eight days is forever in a primary campaign.’’
Both Mr. Romney and Mr. Santorum have concentrated heavily on Michigan over the last week where they are very close in polls. What happens in Mr. Romney’s native state, as well as in Arizona where he leads in polls, could help to set the stage going into Super Tuesday when Ohio, Georgia, Massachusetts, Virginia, Tennessee, and five other states will hold primary elections or caucuses.
“I would argue that a Michigan win is more important to Santorum, because he hadn’t won,” Mr. Brown said. “I would argue that the three states (Missouri, Colorado, and Minnesota) were somewhat aberrational. They were caucuses. It was a primary. It was a beauty contest.
“It certainly helped his media, but he hadn’t won a lot…,’’ he said. “We haven’t seen the last up-to-date financial numbers, but one assumes that Romney is in better financial shape.’’
Mr. Santorum will waste little time getting back to Ohio. While voting is under way Tuesday in Michigan, he will cross the border to Perrysburg to participate in a “Rally for Rick’’ at 11:30 a.m. at the Holiday Inn French Quarter at 10630 Fremont Pike.
Regardless of what happens in Ohio on March 6, Romney won’t be hobbled, Mr. Brown said.
“We know that Romney is going to win Virginia because Santorum and Newt Gingrich aren’t on the ballot,’’ he said. “And we know there are three districts in this state that we know Santorum can’t win because he’s not on the ballot for those delegates.’’
Mr. Santorum failed to get delegates on the ballot in three of Ohio’s congressional districts, including the 9th District stretching along Lake Erie from Toledo to Cleveland.
“If Romney is able to win in Michigan, it buttresses his argument of inevitability given he was so far back,’’ Mr. Brown said.
Mr. Santorum also fares better among Ohio voters than Mr. Romney in terms of their general opinion of him. Fifty-nine percent have a favorable opinion of Mr. Santorum while 16 percent see him unfavorably.
For Mr. Romney, 52 percent have a favorable opinion compared to a 32 percent unfavorable rating.
Quinnipiac questioned 847 likely GOP voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
First Published February 27, 2012, 1:34 p.m.
