His spunky performance at a Republican Governors Association conference in Florida and his big win on Election Day has vaulted Ohio Gov. John Kasich into the long-shot category of potential Republican presidential candidates.
Mr. Kasich brushes off any suggestion he’ll run for president in 2016 and has not done the early things that potential candidates do — such as hiring a national political consultant, frequently visiting Iowa, or creating an exploratory committee.
But on the campaign trail, he talked much about the nation as a whole learning from Ohio, and he shifted from calling the U.S. Affordable Care Act “Obamacare” to “Hillarycare.”
As a gubernatorial candidate, it would have been political suicide for Mr. Kasich to have been seen as launching a presidential campaign.
But in part because of his record in Congress of negotiating a balanced budget with Democratic President Bill Clinton, Mr. Kasich’s name keeps coming up. He served in the U.S. House of Representatives from 1983 to 2001.
“Given his experience in Washington in the 1990s as chairman of the House budget committee, governor of Ohio, private sector experience, I would say in terms of experience and credentials he’s an an extremely credible candidate,” said Herb Asher, professor of political science at Ohio State University.
Potential field
A Quinnipiac Poll released last week showed that Mr. Kasich at least registers among Republican and GOP-leaning voters, even though he trails nine others. Former presidential candidate Mitt Romney led the pack with 19 percent followed by former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush at 11 percent. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson both scored 8 percent, and Kentucky U.S. Sen. Rand Paul scored 6 percent.
U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee all scored 5 percent. Mr. Kasich was in a four-way tie with Texas Gov. Rick Perry, U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, and Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal with 2 percent.
Mr. Kasich easily won re-election Nov. 4 with nearly 64 percent of the vote after the campaign of his opponent, Cuyahoga County Executive Ed FitzGerald, virtually disappeared from public sight and never was able to air the all-important TV commercials that drive turnout and voter impressions of the candidates.
During the election, Mr. Kasich refused to agree to a publicly televised debate with Mr. FitzGerald and often rebuffed news reporters’ questions when he made campaign appearances.
After the election, Mr. Kasich charmed the pundits who covered the Republican Governors Association winter conference two weeks ago in Boca Raton, Fla. Leaning back comfortably at the far end of the stage, he traded points with fellow governors on the list of presidential prospects as well as NBC’s political analyst Chuck Todd.
And seeming unfazed by the conventional wisdom that the way to the GOP nomination is by appealing to the Tea Party, Mr. Kasich spoke about negotiating with President Obama on immigration, defended his Medicaid expansion under Obamacare, and talked up the controversial Common Core education standards.
Too moderate?
National political expert Larry Sabato said he sees Mr. Kasich — along with Ohio U.S. Sen. Rob Portman — as long-shot presidential contenders.
“[Mr. Kasich] has a giant victory to boast about in the great swing state of Ohio,” the director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics said. “He has federal and state experience galore, which is a nice contrast to what Republicans say about Obama. He can appeal to a strong spectrum of the party, but he’s seen as too moderate for the Tea Party and social conservatives.”
As a Columbus-area congressman, he chaired the U.S. House Budget Committee in 1997 when the Republican Congress ushered through and President Clinton signed the nation’s first balanced budget in nearly 30 years. He and his wife, Karen, live in Westerville — rather than in the governor’s mansion — with their twin daughters.
He briefly competed for the GOP presidential nomination in 2000.
After his time in Congress, Mr. Kasich worked as Columbus manager for Lehman Brothers, the powerful investment firm that collapsed in 2008 under the weight of toxic mortgage-backed investments. After 2008, he had his own talk show on the Fox News network, stepping down when he began his campaign for the Ohio election for governor in 2010.
After seeming to follow the GOP conservative handbook early in this tenure, picking a fight with public employee unions that ultimately blew up in his face, Mr. Kasich has presented himself as more moderate and making a direct play for Democratic votes.
Ohio’s model
Kasich campaign spokesman Connie Wehrkamp said the governor is not focusing on presidential prospects.
“People in Ohio have come together to get our state back on track and, frankly, it’s a model that’s working,” she said. “Washington could learn a lot from what Ohio has done and how Ohio has done it. The governor is very comfortable holding up that success to anyone, and he hopes they can benefit from taking a look at it.”
As of now, Mr. Sabato’s closely followed Crystal Ball has no candidates in the first tier, and ranks both Mr. Kasich and Mr. Portman within a crowded “third tier” of presidential candidates. The second tier currently consists of Mr. Bush, Mr. Paul, and Mr. Ryan, Mitt Romney’s vice presidential pick in 2012. Also in the third tier are Mr. Rubio, Mr. Cruz, Mr. Christie, Mr. Walker, and Mr. Jindal.
While sharing the stage with other potential presidential contenders — Mr. Perry, Mr. Jindal, Mr. Walker, and Gov. Mike Pence of Indiana — Mr. Kasich stood out because of his positions.
Mr. Sabato said Mr. Kasich is too smart to know he can’t run away from his positions, which he took in Ohio to ensure his re-election.
“To win a nomination, you move to the right,” he said. “He had to take his stances for re-election. The long and short of it is he’s stuck with those positions.”
Tea Party
Politically, there may be no way forward in the 2016 election for Mr. Kasich.
Although he tackled public sector unions early in his term and has signed a number of measures into law seen as restricting access to abortion, Mr. Kasich won’t get strong support among Tea Party Republicans in Ohio, said Tom Zawistowski, president of the conservative Ohio Citizens PAC.
“If you’re going to compete in Ohio, how do you do it if you don’t have the Tea Party behind you?” Mr. Zawistowski said. “You can’t do it.
“From the standpoint of national support, [Mr. Kasich] is out of step with virtually every other candidate,” Mr. Zawistowski said. “He’s on the wrong side of Common Core and Medicaid expansion. On immigration, he’s really hurt himself on that. But that’s John Kasich.”
Chris Redfern, outgoing chairman of the Ohio Democratic Party, said he has no doubt that the governor covets the 2016 GOP presidential nomination.
“I think everything Governor Kasich has done over the last three and a half years has been focused on trying to win a Republican primary for President,” Mr. Redfern said.
Mr. Redfern noted that Mr. Kasich was in Las Vegas in March to court GOP mega-donor Sheldon Adelson.
He said Mr. Kasich probably won’t be able to advance far in the GOP primary because of the moderate stances he took as governor of Ohio but that he’ll have to find that out for himself.
“He’s so confident in himself that he doesn’t see the primary as a threat,” Mr. Redfern said.
Contact Tom Troy: tomtroy@theblade.com or 419-724-6058 or on Twitter @TomFTroy.
First Published November 30, 2014, 5:00 a.m.
