COLUMBUS — Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton remain locked in a statistical tie in the battle for Ohio’s presidential election vote.
The latest Quinnipiac University Poll released today gave Mr. Trump a slight one-point edge over Mrs. Clinton, 46 percent to 45 percent, in a head-to-head matchup, but that’s well within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
Mr. Trump’s lead widens in a four-way contest that also includes Libertarian Gary Johnson and the Green Party’s Jill Stein. In that scenario, Mr. Trump holds 42 percent; Mrs. Clinton, 38 percent; Johnson, 14 percent, and Stein, 4 percent.
Both Mr. Johnson and Dr. Stein have seen their support rise since Quinnipiac's poll last month.
That suggests that Mrs. Clinton is hurt more than Mr. Trump by the presence of minor party candidates on the Ohio ballot.
“The obvious take-away from these numbers is that Donald Trump has staged a comeback from his post-Democratic convention lows, especially in Pennsylvania and Ohio,” said Peter A. Brown, the Connecticut-based poll’s assistant director.
“Taking a bit longer view, however, we see a race that appears little changed from where it was as the GOP convention began in July and, at least in these four key states, is very much up for grabs,” he said.
The Connecticut-based poll has routinely focused on the battleground states of Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida because no one since 1960 has won the White House without carrying at least two of the three.
But this time Quinnipiac added North Carolina, where Mrs. Clinton leads Mr. Trump 47 percent to 43 percent head to head and 42 percent to 38 percent in a three-way race with Mr. Johnson. Dr. Stein is not on the North Carolina ballot.
North Carolina could take on the role of spoiler for Mr. Trump. To get to the 270 electoral votes to win, the Republican hopes to hold onto the red states Mitt Romney carried in 2012 and flip additional states such as Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida that supported President Barack Obama.
But a win for Mrs. Clinton in North Carolina, which backed Mr. Obama in 2008 but Mr. Romney in 2012, could deepen the hole from which Mr. Trump must start his climb.
A Real Clear Politics averaging of national polls gives the Democrat a 2.8-point edge over the Republican, but the Electoral College race largely comes down to a handful of battleground states.
In a four-way race, the two major party candidates are tied at 43 percent in Florida.
Mrs. Clinton continues her lead in Pennsylvania, 44 percent to Mr. Trump’s 39 percent, in a four-way race in Pennsylvania, but the New York real estate mogul has tightened the race significantly there with the former secretary of state.
Last month’s Ohio poll also had Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Trump in a statistical tie, but with Mrs. Clinton holding the edge at 44 percent to 42 percent—as part of a four-way race with Mr. Johnson, at 8 percent, and Dr. Stein, at 3 percent.
Contact Jim Provance at: jprovance@theblade.com or 614-221-0496.
First Published September 8, 2016, 7:36 p.m.