WASHINGTON — As election day approaches, the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics has revised its projections for possible winners.
Monday, the center changed its ratings of six states, including Ohio, moving all of them farther from Republican Donald Trump. Pennsylvania, which has the most electoral votes of the six, moved from “leans Democratic” to “likely Democratic” for Hillary Clinton.
The new ratings put states such as Ohio as even more of a target for the candidates.
Ohio shifted in the ratings, too — from “leans Republican” to “leans Democratic.”
But with polling showing the thinnest of margins, Ohio is becoming an even more important battleground for the candidates.
Real Clear Politics, which calculates averages of major polls, puts Mrs. Clinton ahead in Ohio by 0.5 percent.
The last three Ohio polls — all conducted before voters over the weekend heard an old recording of Mr. Trump making lewd comments about grabbing women sexually — showed Mrs. Clinton up by a few percentage points. But the six polls before that had Mr. Trump leading.
“Ohio is one of the closest states in terms of margins now,” said Geoffrey Skelley, associate editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, the Center for Politics’ nonpartisan newsletter. “Ohio is just gravy for Clinton, but it’s a must-win for Trump.”
Ohio, which has picked the national winner in 17 of the last 18 presidential contests, is less of a bellwether than it’s been in the past. That’s because it has a greater percentage of non-college-educated whites (41 percent) than the country as a whole (33 percent), and that demographic tends to favor Mr. Trump.
That means Ohio could vote more Republican than the rest of the country, making it either candidate’s state to win or lose.
Mrs. Clinton seems to know that. She has held campaign events in Toledo, Akron, and Columbus over the past week. Bill Clinton also has been campaigning in the state for his wife, and President Obama is expected to speak on her behalf in Columbus on Thursday and Cleveland on Friday.
Mr. Trump hasn’t been to Ohio in about three weeks, but running mate Mike Pence campaigned in Cleveland and Rossford last week, and is expected in Cincinnati on Thursday.
Mr. Trump is more focused on Pennsylvania, where he campaigned Monday, but political scientists say he could be fighting a losing battle in the increasingly blue state.
Pennsylvania is solidly in Mrs. Clinton’s hands now, and likely to stay there. “I don’t see how Trump can make a comeback. I can’t say Clinton is absolutely going to win Pennsylvania at this point, but it would be stunning if she didn’t,” Mr. Skelley said.
G. Terry Madonna, pollster and political scientist at Franklin & Marshall College, agreed that Mr. Trump’s chances of winning Pennsylvania are low.
Still, Mr. Trump isn’t going to toss his hands up and walk away.
He made that clear Monday during a rally in Ambridge, Pa., where he was repeated a promise he made during Sunday’s presidential debate to try to jail Mrs. Clinton for her handling of classified emails.
His best chance of picking up steam again is to keep Mrs. Clinton on the defensive, Mr. Madonna said, noting that every swing in the polls has come after a gaffe or revelation that made one candidate or the other look bad — such as Mrs. Clinton calling Trump supporters deplorable or Mr. Trump insulting the Khan family.
“The Trump campaign is going to have to run the most negative campaign in the next 30 days, dumping everything on Clinton,” said Herb Asher, Ohio State University professor of political science.
“They’re not going to change the minds of Clinton supporters and get them to vote for Trump, but maybe they can reduce their enthusiasm and depress turnout,” Mr. Asher said.
The Block News Alliance consists of The Blade and the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Tracie Mauriello is a reporter for the Post-Gazette.
Contact her at: tmauriello@post-gazette.com, 703-996-9292, or @pgPoliTweets.
First Published October 11, 2016, 4:00 a.m.
