toledoblade.com --

Last week marked President George W. Bush's 50th month in office, a tenure that has not been kind to all investors.

Even though the Dow Jones industrial average finished last week down just 1.6 percent from where it stood Jan. 20, 2001, the other major averages have fared worse - the Standard & Poor's 500 was off nearly 13 percent in the 50 months and the Nasdaq composite was languishing 28 percent down.

But if an investor had owned a good crystal ball and could have foreseen a shooting war and rampaging oil prices, he or she would be doing much better than the market as a whole. For example, last year's seven largest defense contractors have had their stocks rise 28 percent, on average, in the last 50 months, and five large oil companies' shares are up an average of 55 percent.

That would be a pretty nifty portfolio of 12 stocks - for a gain of nearly 40 percent from Jan. 20, 2001, through the close of trading Thursday (the stock market was closed Good Friday).

Here's the tally for the oil giants: Exxon Mobil Corp., up 49 percent; ChevronTexaco Corp.,

up 47 percent; ConocoPhillips, up 90 percent; BP PLC, up 21 percent; and Marathon Oil Corp., up 69 percent.

Looking at the seven defense contractors that got a combined $81 billion worth of contracts in fiscal 2004, Lockheed Martin Corp. shares gained 28 percent since January, 2001; the Boeing Co., 2 percent; Northrop Grumman Corp., 28 percent; General Dynamics Corp., 53 percent; Raytheon Co., 30 percent; Halliburton Co., 13 percent, and United Technologies Corp., 43 percent.

But since our crystal balls are not perfect, where does the average investor turn now? There's no guarantee that oil and defense stocks will continue their hot performance in the future. There's also no guarantee that potential changes in the Social Security system will actually benefit brokerage firms and other financial outfits.

And, in any case, it's always dangerous to look at past performance as a guide to the future. For example, as 2001 dawned, a reasonably well-informed investor might have held shares of Enron Corp., WorldCom Inc., UAL Corp. (United Airlines' parent), Global Crossing Ltd., and Adelphia Communications Corp.

But, of course, by the end of 2002, all were bankrupt, and their assets totaling $244 billion were mostly gone with the wind.

There is still plenty of time for President Bush to leave a positive mark on the stock market. There's a good chance the Dow could return to its historic high of 11,722.98. It would take only a couple of pieces of good news to boost the Dow to that level.

But it will be difficult for the market to top, or even approach, the gains made during the tenure of the four presidents before Mr. Bush. During Bill Clinton's eight years in the White House, the Dow gained 227 percent, the S&P 500 210 percent, and Nasdaq 297 percent.

During George Bush the elder's terms of four years, the Dow was up 46 percent, the S&P 500 52 percent, and Nasdaq 78 percent. Ronald Reagan's eight years saw the Dow boosted by 136 percent, the S&P 500 by 118 percent, and Nasdaq by 97 percent.

Jimmy Carter's four years were marked by sharp market downturns, during an energy crunch and the Iranian hostage crisis. But the Dow still eked out a slim gain of about 1 percent, while the S&P 500 was up 30 percent, and the Nasdaq gained 108 percent.

There's 46 months left in Mr. Bush's term. Plenty of time. But the clock continues to tick.

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