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When Tom Noe walks into a federal courtroom today to change his not guilty plea on charges he illegally funneled thousands of dollars to the Bush-Cheney re-election campaign, his options will be severely limited.

Rarely do U.S. attorneys accept “no contest” pleas, court observers said, and a “not guilty by reason of insanity” plea is highly unlikely.

While federal authorities continue to remain mum on what they expect Mr. Noe to do, all indicators point to a guilty plea on one or all three of the charges.

If his plea is accepted by U.S. District Court Judge David Katz, Mr. Noe likely will be sentenced within the next couple of months. It is unclear how long he could be imprisoned.

By admitting his guilt, Mr. Noe would substantially reduce his possible prison sentence, local attorneys familiar with federal court said.

While a defendant can agree to cooperate with other investigations in exchange for a lenient sentencing recommendation, that has not happened with this case.

A source familiar with the case has told The Blade that the U.S. attorney’s office has not made a deal with Mr. Noe for a reduced sentence.

“There is no deal,” the source said.

Unlike in state court, there is far less wiggle room in a federal criminal plea, said George Gerken, a Toledo defense attorney who is a veteran of federal court. He has no connection to the Noe case.

Mr. Gerken said the U.S. attorney’s office can agree to drop charges, however. The obvious benefit of a guilty plea is a reduced sentence, Mr. Gerken and others said. But recent court rulings have given judges more latitude as well.

No longer are they constrained by sentencing guidelines, he said. Now, they just have to justify their sentences.

“If they go above [the guidelines], they have to say why. If they go below, they have to say why,” he said.

Mr. Noe pleaded not guilty in October and faced a maximum of 15 years in federal prison and a fine of nearly $1 million if convicted of all charges.

Federal prosecutors have alleged that Mr. Noe gave more than $45,000 to two dozen people to contribute to the Bush-Cheney campaign in October, 2003. For helping to raise more than $100,000 for the campaign, Mr. Noe was labeled a Bush “Pioneer.”

In October, after months of grand jury testimony, a federal grand jury indicted Mr. Noe for exceeding federal campaign limits, saying that he “knowingly and willfully” used others to make the contributions, and that he caused the Bush campaign to file a false campaign-finance statement.

$350,000 bond posted

After pleading not guilty in October, Mr. Noe, 51, posted a $350,000 bond on the federal charges. He lives in the Florida Keys with his wife, Bernadette. Both are former Lucas County Republican Party chairmen.

David Bauer, the assistant U.S. attorney in charge of the Toledo office, could not be reached for comment.

Mr. Bauer’s office began investigating Mr. Noe’s political activity in October, 2005, following a referral from the Lucas County prosecutor’s office, which uncovered the alleged scheme after looking into unrelated — and later unsubstantiated — claims by Bernadette Noe against one of the conduits, Joe Kidd.

At the time, Mr. Kidd was executive director of the Lucas County Board of Elections; Ms. Noe was chairman of the board.

In April, 2005, the U.S. attorney’s office acknowledged its investigation as it issued search warrants and as federal agents swept through the Toledo area to gather evidence and interview witnesses.

In June and July, a federal grand jury heard testimony from a number of the alleged conduits, including Mr. Kidd, Lucas County Commissioner Maggie Thurber, Toledo City Councilman Betty Shultz, former Toledo mayor Donna Owens, and former state representative Sally Perz. Each had received money from Mr. Noe and then gave a similar amount to the Bush campaign.

Charges still possible

Those four women still face potential state ethics charges — all were state appointees at the time of the fund-raiser — for failing to disclose that Mr. Noe gave them money. A special prosecutor is mulling criminal charges against the women.

In Lucas County Common Pleas Court, Mr. Noe faces 53 felony counts related to allegations he stole from the $50 million in rare-coin funds he managed for the Ohio Bureau of Workers’ Compensation. That trial is set to begin Aug. 29.

He has pleaded not guilty to the state charges and is free on $500,000 bond.

Mr. Noe was once a prominent Republican fund-raiser and gubernatorial appointee. The scandal surrounding the coin funds has triggered repercussions in Columbus and Washington.

At the time of his indictment, prosecutors said the Noe case represented the largest campaign money-laundering scheme prosecuted by the U.S. Justice Department since 2002, when Congress enacted new campaign-finance laws.

A guilty plea could change the stance of the Republican National Committee, which has been waiting for a resolution of the case before deciding whether to return thousands of dollars Mr. Noe raised for the party.

$4,000 returned

Last year, President Bush returned $4,000 in campaign contributions from Tom and Bernadette Noe.

Since then, the Democratic National Committee repeatedly has called on Mr. Bush to also return the $100,000 that Mr. Noe raised to become a Bush “Pioneer.” Yesterday, the DNC repeated that call.

Aaron McLear, a spokesman for the Republican National Committee, said it was unclear yesterday afternoon what effect a guilty plea would have on the contributions that Mr. Noe raised for the Bush-Cheney campaign.

“It’s premature to change our stance until we find out what happens [today],” said Mr. McLear. “I don’t know if what happens [today] will necessarily change that, either.”

Although state officials have said no deal is in the works, State Sen. Marc Dann, a Youngstown-area Democrat who is running for attorney general, said Mr. Noe “has every incentive” before sentencing to provide information to investigators, including information on the role of Jim Conrad, who resigned last year as administrator-CEO of the Bureau of Workers’ Compensation.

“He knows where a lot of the bodies are buried, and not buried. He knows what Jim Conrad knew about this, who in Bob Taft’s office facilitated the second $25 million, who in George Voinovich’s office facilitated the first $25 million investment, and so he has a lot of information that only he knows about the rare-coin investment,” Mr. Dann said.

Contact Mike Wilkinson at: mwilkinson@theblade.com or 419-724-6104.

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