toledoblade.com --

COLUMBUS - Democratic stronghold New Jersey ousted its incumbent governor. Virginia, a state Barack Obama turned "blue" last year, repainted the governor's mansion "red."

Toledo rejected the endorsed Democrat for mayor in favor of an independent, and, in a stunner, Dayton threw out a two-term mayor and standard-bearer of a local Democratic political dynasty.

Don't read too much into Tuesday, cautioned Ohio Democrats and Gov. Ted Strickland, as they look ahead to 2010 when the governor, all statewide executive offices, a U.S. Senate seat, and control of the Ohio House will be up for grabs.

Read everything into it, Republicans said.

"Looking at those numbers, if I was Ted Strickland, I'd be concerned that Democrats lost an open seat in Virginia, but I'd be terrified that they couldn't even hold an incumbent gubernatorial seat in staunchly Democrat New Jersey with a self-funded candidate," said Ohio Republican Party Chairman Kevin DeWine.

2010 RACES TAKE SHAPE

GOVERNOR
Democrat: Ted Strickland, incumbent
Republican: John Kasich, former congressman

U.S. SENATOR
Democrats: Lee Fisher, lieutenant governor; Jennifer Brunner, secretary of state
Republicans: Rob Portman, former congressman; Tom Ganley, auto group owner

ATTORNEY GENERAL
Democrat: Richard Cordray, incumbent
Republicans: Mike DeWine, former U.S. senator; Dave Yost, Delaware County prosecutor

SECRETARY OF STATE
Democrat: Jennifer Garrison, state representative
Republicans: Jon Husted, state senator; Sandra O'Brien, former Ashtabula County auditor.

AUDITOR
Democrat: David Pepper, Hamilton County commissioner
Republican: Mary Taylor, incumbent

TREASURER
Democrat: Kevin Boyce, incumbent
Republican: Josh Mandel, state representative Filing deadline for races is Feb. 18.

The close of polls at 7:30 p.m. Tuesday essentially marked the close of one election season and the start of another.

Mr. Strickland is seeking a second four-year term at a time when Ohio's unemployment rate has been above 10 percent for seven months and polls show a public backlash against President Obama's health-care reforms and spending.

Mr. Strickland does have to worry, said Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.

"Already, the polls show he's on notice," he said. "I don't think it's because [Republican candidate] John Kasich is that popular. I don't think people know who he is. But as with an incumbent like [New Jersey Gov. Jon] Corzine, in the end the election is a thumbs-up or a thumbs-down on the governor."

Mr. Strickland did find some bright news in the de-
feat of Mr. Corzine, a former Goldman Sachs executive, by Republican Chris Christie.

"What happened in New Jersey is that the people sent a strong message that they don't like candidates who have ties to Wall Street," Mr. Strickland said.

"His background made it difficult for him to overcome the image of being unable to identify with the regular person."

This was a polite reminder that Mr. Kasich, a former central Ohio congressman and Fox News talk show host, was an executive with Lehman Brothers before the financial giant's collapse in 2008 became a symbol of Wall Street greed.

"What happened in New Jersey and Virginia is very similar to what happened in New Jersey and Virginia following past presidential elections," Mr. Strickland said. "Those states seem to embrace candidates of the opposing presidential winner's party. Things change often and sometimes rapidly."

Kasich spokesman Rob Nichols said that Tuesday's lesson is that voters will hold elected officials accountable for results, not intentions.

"You're not going to get a trophy for showing up at work each day," he said. "We will make the case that [Mr. Strickland's] record is one of high unemployment, high taxation, and broken campaign promises. People are hurting. People were hurting in New Jersey, and we saw them hold [Mr. Corzine] accountable."

Ohio Democratic Party Chairman Chris Redfern said the 2009 results suggested the 2010 elections will be "very close."

Like Mr. Strickland, Mr. Redfern drew parallels between Mr. Corzine and Mr. Kasich.

"There is a disconnect between John Kasich and the voters," Mr. Redfern said. "He can run from his Lehman Brothers past, but as Jon Corzine just showed, he can't hide."

Mr. Kasich joined Lehman Brothers in 2001 as managing director of its investment banking group after leaving Congress. He has disputed suggestions that decisions he made from Columbus played a role in the Wall Street institution's bankruptcy.

"If the governor truly thinks that's the central issue of this campaign, then he hasn't learned anything," said Mr. Nichols from the Kasich campaign. "What about the 329,000 jobs that fled Ohio under his reign? They'll talk about anything other than his failures as a leader of the state of Ohio."

Although Mr. Obama probably would campaign for Mr. Strickland in 2010, Mr. Sabato said he's not sure how much good it would do in a state where Democrats preferred Hillary Clinton in 2008.

"Ohio never really took to Obama," he said. "We saw that in the primary. We saw it in the general election. If you compare Ohio to the votes in similarly placed, north-central states, Obama did poorly there relatively speaking. He won, but it was not a landslide."

Contact Jim Provance at:
jprovance@theblade.com
or 614-221-0496.

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