Article published November 13, 2009
Race for Michigan governor already shaping up
DETROIT — Even though the election is nearly a year away, the race for Michigan’s next governor is well under way.
Yet when moderate voters begin paying attention, they may find themselves frustrated. Outside of her immediate circle, Jennifer Granholm’s two terms are largely viewed as a disappointment.
“This is the worst and the weakest governor that our state has ever had,“ U.S. Rep. Candice Miller (R., Macomb County) said recently at a GOP gubernatorial candidates’ forum. Granted, that was a partisan attack. Yet there are many independents — and even a few Democrats — who agree.
In any event, the governor is, thanks to term limits, unable to run again. Most party leaders are backing Lt. Gov. John Cherry as their candidate next year; in fact, there is a concentrated effort to lock up the nomination for Mr. Cherry early, in the belief that gives Democrats their best possible chance.
But privately, even some strong partisans think that may be a hopeless cause. Michigan’s lieutenant governors, like vice-presidents, have had a tough time winning on their own even when the executive they succeed is popular.
John Swainson in 1960 was the last sitting lieutenant governor to win the top job. All who have tried since have failed, most recently, Dick Posthumus in 2002.
That task will be much harder next year. Thanks to the economy and the long, dismaying budget battles, only about a third of all voters give Jennifer Granholm a favorable approval rating.
Polls show John Cherry losing badly to nearly every conceivable GOP contender. But Republicans have their own problems, too. Many voters may have been turned off by their uncompromising tactics in the recent budget wars.
Legislative Republicans refused to even talk about possible revenue increases, meaning that public schools suffered crippling cuts. None of the three leading GOP candidates — Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard, Attorney General Mike Cox, and U.S. Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R., Holland) — has offered any ideas for revitalizing the state’s economy, and none has shown much charisma.
So could it possibly be time for an independent candidacy?
That may sound far-fetched but Maine and Minnesota have elected independents in recent years. Vermont and Connecticut have independent U.S. senators.
And there are two heavyweight Michigan politicians — one from each political party — who are reported to at least be considering the idea, though neither is talking about it, on the record, anyway.
Speaker of the House Andy Dillon (D., Redford Township) offered perhaps the most creative deficit-lessening idea this year: a proposal to put all state and municipal workers on the same health plan, thus potentially saving the state hundreds of millions of dollars.
That earned him bitter opposition within his own party, primarily because of interest groups like the Michigan Education Association, whose leaders denounced the plan before they even read it.
Mr. Dillon, a 47-year-old attorney and venture capital manager, is also term-limited, and a race for governor would seem to be a logical next step. He might have far more statewide voter appeal than Mr. Cherry. But he would likely have little chance in the small voter universe that is a Democratic primary.
Former Republican Congressman Joe Schwarz may be even more qualified than Mr. Dillon. He was the legislature’s top expert on education funding during his 16 years in the state Senate. He’s also a physician who has served with distinction in Vietnam in the U.S. Navy and the CIA. He also has been mayor of Battle Creek, and served a term in Congress. But he is even more of a pariah among Republicans these days than Mr. Dillon is among Democrats.
That’s because the blunt-talking, 72-year-old Schwarz says flatly there is no way Michigan can avoid raising taxes, at least temporarily. He thinks it should be split between the sales and income tax. He also thinks abortion should be “safe, legal, and rare.”
That sort of straight talk caused him to be defeated in the GOP congressional primary three years ago by a hard-right conservative who last year lost to a moderate Democrat.
Eventually, the odds may be against either man running as an independent. They would face an uphill battle in fundraising. They’d be denounced by former allies. Yet if ever there were a time that seemed ripe for an independent candidacy, this is likely it.
Getting on the ballot itself would not be especially hard; their campaigns would merely have to file 30,000 valid signatures with the Secretary of State by July 15. Either man would probably have to make a decision by early next year, however.
And there are even those who have been whispering that if the two of them decided to run as an independent ticket, it could change the game in a big way — if not the entire political fabric of Michigan.
Jack Lessenberry, a member of the journalism faculty at Wayne State University in Detroit and The Blade’s ombudsman, writes on issues and people in Michigan.
Contact him at: omblade@aol.com
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