BOWLING GREEN — Tuesday will be the biggest game at the Stroh Center this year, and for a plethora of reasons.
Akron and Bowling Green are tied for first place in the Mid-American Conference with just four regular-season games to go, and the second meeting between the Zips (21-6, 11-3 MAC) and Falcons (20-7, 11-3) will play an outsized role in determining seeding in the MAC tournament.
For the Falcons, a win Tuesday would go a long way.
To earn a first-round bye in the MAC tournament
Scenario 1: Just win
The top four teams in the MAC earn the right to skip the first round and head straight to Cleveland, and BG is on the doorstep of earning one of those four spots.
Five MAC teams already can’t catch BG in the standings, and a win Tuesday against Akron would add three more to the pile, thereby clinching a bye.
Kent State and Central Michigan cannot win more than 11 league games — BG’s next win would be its 12th — and the Falcons own a head-to-head tiebreaker against Ball State, which cannot finish better than 12-6.
Seeding still would be up in the air, but a victory against Akron assures that Bowling Green would be fourth at the absolute worst when the MAC tournament starts next month.
Scenario 2: The long odds
BG still could clinch a bye with a loss Tuesday, but this scenario is about as likely as winning $1,000 from a scratch-off lottery ticket.
If the Falcons lose to Akron, they would need three bottom-feeders to win on the road Tuesday. To clinch without winning, BG needs Toledo (5-9 MAC) to win at Central Michigan, Western Michigan (4-10) to win at Ball State, and Miami (3-9) to win its first MAC road game of the year at Kent State.
BG would be fortunate to get one, let alone all three.
The race for the No. 1 seed
A Bowling Green win would…
■ Give the Falcons the top spot in the MAC with three games to go.
■ Neutralize a potentially key tiebreaker.
■ Temporarily swing two tiebreakers in BG’s favor against Akron.
If the Falcons and Zips split the two games — Akron won the first meeting — the first MAC tiebreaker of head-to-head competition would be a draw in the event that Akron and BG finish with the same record. It would then come down to division record. The winner of Tuesday’s game will have a 5-2 East Division record, and the loser will drop to 4-3.
BG also beat 9-5 Buffalo the first time around, whereas Akron did not, a possible third tiebreaker if needed. Both teams still play Buffalo again.
An Akron win would…
■ Establish a tiebreaker against BG.
■ Make the Zips the heavy favorite for the No. 1 seed.
If Akron sweeps the season series, Bowling Green would face what is essentially a two-game deficit with three games to play. The Falcons still could earn a share of the East Division and regular season MAC titles by finishing with the same record, but Akron would break any tie with BG thanks to a 2-0 record against the Falcons.
Put simply, if Akron wins Tuesday, the MAC is the Zips’ to lose.
First Published February 24, 2020, 4:27 p.m.
