March Madness can be particularly cruel for mid-major college basketball teams.
This season, the University of Toledo men’s team won 25 games, finished second in the Mid-American Conference, and won the MAC West. But an early exit in the quarterfinals of the conference tournament at the hands of seventh-seeded Northern Illinois means thoughts of Toledo ending its nearly 40-year NCAA tournament drought are all but done.
All the goodwill that was built up during the regular season is overshadowed by a March disappointment.
But while Toledo saw its NCAA tournament hopes dashed, the Rockets and coach Tod Kowalczyk have latched their postseason aspirations onto a possible NIT bid.
For a decorated senior class of Jaelan Sanford, Nate Navigato, and Chris Darrington, the hope is there is more basketball to be played this season. Following the loss to NIU on Thursday, Kowalczyk wasted little time in defending his team’s NIT chances.
“I’m proud of our team,” he said. “You know, proud of our effort. I’m excited to continue to play. You know, all the analytics today ... I’d be shocked if we're not in. And we've got great administrators in our league with a great commissioner as well as [associate commissioner] Ricky Stokes. You know, they need to go to bat and get this team what it deserves and that's to play in the NIT, and we'll be very proud to play in that NIT.”
The Rockets, behind only Buffalo in the MAC in terms of metrics, are 62nd in the NCAA NET rankings and have an RPI of 40, a KenPom ranking of 58, and a Basketball Power Index rating of 58 — all better than last season’s team, which finished 23-11 with a loss in the MAC tournament final to Buffalo. Toledo did not receive an NIT bid and declined to play in any of the other postseason tournaments.
Last season, the Rockets finished with an RPI of 70; 113th in KenPom; and 120th in BPI. (The NET rankings are a new metric this season.)
Also helping Toledo’s case is the fact the MAC is ranked ninth in both NET rankings and RPI among all 32 Division I conferences.
According to DRatings.com — a sports ratings, predictions, and analysis site — Toledo is solidly in the field as a No. 4 seed in its NIT projections. SBNation site Mid-Major Madness also predicts that Toledo will make the NIT as a No. 4 seed.
Toledo has a convincing case to make the NIT, although the early MAC tournament exit did the Rockets no favors. And there are no guarantees in March, which is often especially unkind to the perceived little guys.
So Kowalczyk and the Rockets will be left waiting for a potential spot in the NIT on Sunday night.
First Published March 16, 2019, 7:50 p.m.
