The University of Toledo basketball team has now lost five straight games and have fallen to 10th place in the Mid-American Conference with a 3-8 record.
So what has happened in conference play to the team that was picked to win the MAC West?
In looking at some of the advanced statistics, there is a big difference between the offensive and defensive numbers for Toledo in its 11 MAC games so far. Here is a look at some of those numbers and what they mean.
Offensive numbers
108.3
That is the adjusted offensive efficiency, or points per 100 possessions, for Toledo during MAC play. The Rockets have big-time scoring threats in Marreon Jackson and Luke Knapke. Add in Spencer Littleson's 3-point shooting and Willie Jackson's ability to finish down low, and you have a very capable offensive attack.
57.4
That is the percent of assists on made field goals for Toledo. That shows the offense has good spacing and is moving the ball at a high rate. It also shows the Rockets are unselfish offensively and are looking to set up teammates. The best example of that is point guard Marreon Jackson, who is second in the conference in assists at 5.7 per game in league play.
52.8
The effective field goal percentage for Toledo, which ranks second in the MAC. This measures both 2- and 3-point field goals and gives a bit more weight to 3-pointers. It shows Toledo is a very good shooting team, which is obvious when you watch them play. Toledo is also second in the conference in 3-point shooting at 39.3 percent behind only Akron.
Defensive numbers
111.1
That is the adjusted defensive efficiency for Toledo, which is last in the conference during MAC play. The Rockets are struggling to get stops on the defensive end, and this number is a reflection of that. The average efficiency, or points scored per 100 possessions, for an average Division I team is 102.4.
52.4
The effective field goal percentage allowed by Toledo in MAC play. The Rockets are allowing opponents to shoot 39 percent from the 3-point line, which is 11th in the MAC. Guarding the 3-point line is usually a priority for any team, and that is one of the weaknesses of Toledo's defense this season.
28.3
This is the offensive rebound rate given up by Toledo to its opponents. This measures the percentage of offensive rebounds as compared to a team's total rebounds. The 28.3 percent mark ranks ninth in the MAC. So while the other stats show Toledo has had trouble limiting opponents’ scoring, this shows they have had trouble, at times, completing a possession with a rebound and allowing second opportunities for an opposing offense.
Other numbers
35
Three players — Marreon Jackson, Willie Jackson, and Knapke — are averaging more than 35 minutes per game in MAC play. Marreon Jackson is second in the league at 37.3 minutes per game, while Willie Jackson and Knapke are top five at 35.5 minutes per game each. The trio hasn't showed any signs of slowing down yet, but it's worth monitoring how the heavy minutes affect them down the stretch.
18.3
The percentage of total minutes the bench plays compared to the team's total minutes. The 18.3 percent mark, which is for the entire season, is the third lowest amount in all of Division I. This is not too surprising, as several factors have left Toledo with a razor-thin bench. The Rockets have been searching for bench production for most of the season, but haven't gotten much.
6
Toledo has lost its past five games by an average of six points. That number would be even less if the Rockets didn't have a 13-point loss to Kent State at home. The four other losses are by six points or fewer. Toledo has had chances to win most games, but has not come up with winning plays down the stretch.
First Published February 10, 2020, 8:22 p.m.
