The Toledo basketball season — not to mention life as we know it — ended on Thursday.
By Friday, half of its healthy returning scholarship players were in the transfer portal.
I know social distancing is critical, but this seemed a bit much, no?
No sooner had the college season been called off than the tide of departures began.
Out were freshmen Donovan Moore and Aaron Etherington, redshirt freshman forward T.J. Smith, and junior guard Dylan Alderson.
That’s four of the eight Rockets who were active this year and set to return next season.
In other words, enough to temporarily steal our attention from the real world and ask: What in the name of Dr. Naismith is going on here?
Is this a bad look for Toledo basketball? Or an aberration for an otherwise stable program?
Yes.
As usual, the truth lives somewhere in the middle.
Any you slice it, this is not ideal. Even in an increasingly transient landscape — the NCAA reports that 40 percent of men’s basketball players leave their first school by the end of their sophomore year — the loss of four players is too many and opens the door to questions on player evaluation and development.
Notable about the losses is what Toledo didn’t lose. Of the outgoing players, only Alderson played meaningful minutes, and he apparently spent the latter part of the season planning a move to the NAIA Division II level. Alderson, who lost his starting spot midway through this season, announced Friday he is headed to Indiana Wesleyan.
“With our players, the one thing we try to do is be honest with them about what kind of year they had and what we see for them in the future,” Toledo coach Tod Kowalczyk said. “If their expectations and our staff’s expectations don’t meet up, they’re probably going to do what is best for them.”
And perhaps what is best for Toledo.
While Kowalczyk deserves heat for the recruiting whiffs, it is fair to remind that projecting high school talent is hardly an exact science.
It is nice to imagine having 13 happy and productive scholarship players every year. That’s not reality.
“You're not going to hit on everybody you recruit,” Kowalczyk said. “It’s no different than hiring in business. You’re going to make some mistakes.”
The key is hitting more often than not, and, although his teams are rarely deep, his general success suggests he’s on the right side of the equation. (Please, let’s not have this argument in front of the kids. Toledo has won 77 league games since 2013 — second only to Buffalo in the Mid-American Conference. It is not a great program, but it is a very good one.)
Where elsewhere a mass fleeing of Dodge might suggest a broken foundation, that does not feel like the case here.
As for what’s next, good question.
Begin with the players returning. Due back are junior guards Marreon Jackson and Spencer Littleson, redshirt freshman guard Keshaun Saunders, and freshman center Luke Maranka, along with sophomore forward A.J. Edu — a future all-league talent who missed the season with a torn ACL — and, possibly, freshman forward Mattia Acunzo, who sat with a broken foot that refuses to heal. Toledo hopes for the best, but, realistically, I’m not sure Acunzo — who Kowalczyk once told me could be the best recruit of his career — will be the same.
Another wild card: Senior Willie Jackson. If momentum builds to allow seniors who had their careers cut short by the coronavirus pandemic to play an additional season, the forward has informed coaches he “100 percent” intends to return to Toledo next year. (The Rockets’ other senior, Luke Knapke, is set to complete his master’s and plans to pursue his pro career.)
Then there’s the wave of new arrivals, led by signee Ryan Rollins, a 6-4 guard from Macomb, Mich., who averaged 25.5 points, 8 rebounds, and 7 assists this season. (“He’s the real deal,” Kowalczyk said.) Toledo also has commits from RaHeim Moss, a 6-3 guard — and three-star linebacker — from Springfield, Ohio, who chose hoops over football scholarship offers from Kentucky, Cincinnati, and ... UT; Jamere Hill, a 6-3 guard from Joliet, Ill.; and Seth Millner, a 6-6 guard and junior college transfer from Northwest Florida by way of Cleveland State.
As of today, this gives the Rockets a projected 2020-21 starting lineup of Marreon Jackson — the all-league point guard who declared for the NBA draft on Tuesday but is expected back — Rollins, Littleson, Millner, and Edu, though that’s subject to change.
For one, the return of Willie Jackson and Acunzo are real possibilities. For another, Kowalczyk plans to keep recruiting. With three open scholarships, expect him to add another junior college transfer and — presuming the expected passage of a one-time transfer exception — two players currently on power conference rosters.
That’s a lot of potential talent to pair with a talented returning core. It’s also a lot of upheaval, inviting the potential for conflict if agendas and personalities clash.
Can Toledo manage it? We’ll see.
The roster flip isn’t ideal, but, as with life itself, it’s hardly the end of the world.
First Published March 17, 2020, 8:08 p.m.
