When it comes to Broadway predictions, St. Francis de Sales’ musical theater director Ward Ensign has a 50 / 50 hit rate.

In an email response to my Broadway in Toledo predictions column, Ensign correctly called that Shucked and A Beautiful Noise: The Neil Diamond Musical would land on Toledo’s shores for the American Theatre Guild’s 2025-26 season.

Considering the two dozen or so touring musicals racing theaters around the continent, two out of four is pretty good. Ensign’s results were certainly better than mine; if I hadn’t hedged my bets with The Wiz, I would have been zero for five.

“A Beautiful Noise is just totally Toledo to me,” Ensign said in an interview. “The jukebox kind of musicals, they’re not my personal favorite, but I think whoever plans these knows that they’ll play well in a city like Toledo.”

Familiarity does well here, Ensign said. This can be in concept — MJ: the Musical was another one of Ensign’s picks — or in actuality, with frequent appearances of fan favorites like The Lion King and Hamilton.

“The newest show that nobody knows anything about might not play well if it doesn’t have really good name recognition or songs that you’re familiar with,” Ensign said.

At least, that was the thought; the five 2025-26 shows are all new to Toledo, the result of feedback from the Toledo market, according to ATGuild’s Craig Aikman. The Glass City will also see two current Broadway shows, & Juliet and The Great Gatsby, during the first year of their national tours.

Not all dreams come true: Ensign and I both hoped to see Moulin Rouge! join the lineup.

I thought the movie musical-turned-musical would be a crowd-pleaser choice. For Ensign and St. Francis musical theater associate director Grant Grisier, it was personal. Amara Berhan, a 2020 graduate of St. Ursula Academy, joined the cast last year of Moulin Rouge! in December, 2024.

Because the all-boys school sources female roles for its musicals from either St. Ursula or Notre Dame Academy, Ensign and Grisier had worked with Berhan on shows.

“We were secretly hoping that Toledo would be a stop so that we would get to see her in town and have a really big homecoming for her. But unfortunately, that wasn’t in the cards for this upcoming season,” Grisier said.

Ensign heads to the Great White Way in person at least once a year. In recent times, he’s attended the Broadway Teacher’s Workshop, a three-day program that provides theater educators with directing, writing, and other instruction with award-winning theater performers, including tickets to the latest shows.

Ensign’s zeal for musical theater is how he stumbled across Holiday Inn, a 2016 musical based on the 1942 film of the same name.

Reworked for a contemporary audience, Holiday Inn is also a showcase for the music of Russian-born American composer and songwriter Irving Berlin. No longer a household name, Berlin’s oeuvre nevertheless includes works like “White Christmas,” “God Bless America,” “There’s No Business Like Show Business.” His awards include a Presidential Medal of Freedom; his contributions to the United States have been eulogized as the heart of American music.

Starring Bing Crosby and Fred Astaire, Holiday Inn follows Jim Hardy’s escape to the country after a career in show business. When Jim finds himself missing the big city after all, his friends put on shows for him at all times of the year.

The movie introduced the beloved “White Christmas” to nationwide audiences, but it’s not a Christmas musical.

“It’s like a Hallmark movie on stage,” Ensign said. “And of course, he finds love in the small town and all that.”

St. Francis senior Robbie LeBlanc plays Ted Hanover, Jim’s foil and former dance partner who can’t quite seem to stop messing things up for his erstwhile companion.

Taking over a role that once belonged to Fred Astaire gives LeBlanc big shoes to fill — metaphorically. Astaire’s feet measured in around a men’s size six.

“I’d never heard of [Holiday Inn], but once I listened to the music, I was hooked. I absolutely love the music from the show and the aesthetic. It’s so much fun,” LeBlanc said.

Holiday Inn’s musical rendition streamlines the movie’s story, omits an offensive blackface scene, and adds more of Berlin’s repertoire to Holiday Inn’s dance highlights.

“St. Francis musicals have always been known for the big chorus dance numbers, and so this offers the opportunity with songs like ‘Shaking the Blues Away’ and ‘Blue Skies,’ you know, the opportunity for our cast of 60 kids to get out on stage and dance,” Grisier said.

Holiday Inn’s classic Broadway feel is a departure from St. Francis’s musicals of recent years, its nostalgic setting changing up the look for St. Francis’s loyal audience.

“The kids are really enjoying singing the harmonies and learning more about an era that is probably more about their great-great grandparents,” Ensign said.

Old Broadway or new, St. Francis students aren’t keeping as close an eye on Broadway trends as their musical director, but St. Francis senior Alex Hargen couldn’t be more excited for one of next season’s shows.

“Christmas last year, my family and I, we took a trip to New York, and I saw Shucked on Broadway, and it was one of the funniest things that I’d ever seen,” said Hargen, who plays the KENO radio host and is the understudy for Jim and Ted’s manager Danny.

Headed to Michigan State University next year, Hargen is hoping to use Shucked’s appearance at the Stranahan as an excuse to visit home.

For now, he and LeBlanc have one last high school musical ahead of them.

“Opening night is such a magical experience,” Hargen said. “I remember my first opening night my freshman year, and that was one of the greatest nights of my life, just seeing all the people who come out and support the arts program at St Francis.”

Coming up:

● A Bench in the Sun, Friday-Sunday, by the Playmakers Civic Theatre, at 604 W. 6th St., Port Clinton.

● The Cat in the Hat, Friday-Sunday, at the Croswell Opera House, 129 E. Maumee St., Adrian.

● Murder at the Pie Auction, Friday-Sunday, by the Black Swamp Players, 115 E. Oak St., Bowling Green.

Toledo Voices, Friday-Sunday, at the Toledo Repertoire Theatre, 16 10th St., Toledo.

First Published March 13, 2025, 11:58 a.m.