Owners of small and medium-sized businesses in Ohio are expressing caution about the state’s economic picture over the next six months, a reaction stemming from a volatile stock market and rhetoric from the ongoing presidential election campaign.
According to PNC Bank’s spring 2016 survey of business owners, 41 percent are pessimistic about the economy compared to 40 percent last fall. Last spring, only 31 percent were pessimistic.
Another 35 percent are pessimistic about their local economies, compared to just 26 percent last fall.
Approximately 61 percent of the owners surveyed indicated they were not satisfied that any of the potential candidates are addressing in their positions the key issues facing businesses.
For its survey, PNC conducted 502 interviews nationally, including 152 businesses in Ohio. The survey had an error margin of 4.4 percent.
Despite the pessimism for the next six months, just 9 percent of Ohio businesses surveyed said they expected a decrease in their profits, the lowest figure in seven years. Last fall, 18 percent of Ohio businesses in the survey said they expected their profits to decrease.
Nationwide, the survey found that only 12 percent of businesses plan to hire more workers over the next six months, down from 19 percent last fall and up from 10 percent a year ago.
Just 23 percent said they expect to increase wages, down from 36 percent in the fall and 26 percent a year ago. Even so, 38 percent say they are finding it harder to find qualified employees compared to last fall and a year ago.
The results indicate that business owners expect manufacturing, healthcare, and professional services to lead Ohio’s job growth. Education, finance, and leisure and hospitality also look strong.
Improvements to consumer finances nationwide stimulated a record year for auto sales, production, and income, the survey said. But risk was seen coming from a weak global economy and a strong dollar that could hurt exports more than expected.
PNC said that based on the survey results it forecasts real GDP to grow at 2 percent for 2016, a slight slowdown from 2015.
— Jon Chavez
First Published April 1, 2016, 4:00 a.m.
