Mayor Carty Finkbeiner, looking for a way to kick the city into a full growth mode, is considering hiring a data analysis firm based in Washington to conduct a "neighborhood market analysis" of the entire city.
The cost for such a study: approximately $100,000.
At the same time, the firm could help the city to challenge in advance the 2008 U.S. Census Bureau's Toledo population estimate. If successful, higher numbers could make it easier for leaders to attract new businesses and get more state and federal funding. Social Compact Inc. would charge $5,000 to $10,000 for that service.
Mr. Finkbeiner said the city and region have potential and he wants more evidence that investments into its future will have strong legs and financial viability.
"We're going to do it not only for the census We are going to do [the analysis] in terms of examining the targets - the targets for economic development in Toledo that haven't been tapped," Mr. Finkbeiner said last week. "In Houston, Texas, they came back and said you could do a central-city mall and it will work."
"Nobody thought that would work, and now it employs, I'm told, 2,000 people full and part-time," he said.
Social Compact is a nonprofit firm that specializes in an "inner-city neighborhood market analysis called the Drill Down. The mayor said the group has advised cities to look beyond their major employers and bastions of strength.
A Nov. 26 memo from Mike Badik, commissioner of housing, to the mayor said Social Compact would work with the city to raise 50 percent of the $100,000 cost through foundations and corporate sponsors.
Social Compact analyzes business-oriented data to "reveal the hidden strengths of traditionally undervalued communities," Mr. Badik wrote.
"The population census challenge is the beginning, and then they finish with what they call their drill down market analysis, which identifies by neighborhood, as well as by city, the economic strength of each of those neighborhoods," Mr. Badik told The Blade.
The Finkbeiner administration is making plans for Social Compact's chief executive officer, John Talmage, to visit the city, Mr. Badik said.
Mr. Talmage did not return telephone calls seeking comment.
The cost would have to be approved by City Council if it exceeds $10,000.
Council President Michael Ashford said he would not support hiring the firm - even at $50,000.
"Just recently, council voted to spend $35,000 for a survey, which I voted against," Mr. Ashford said. "You don't need to do these studies, you don't need to do this analysis, it's all common sense. We are about surveys and analysis to death, and right now I don't know where they are going to get any additional money to do a neighborhood analysis."
The council voted 10-1 on Dec. 11 to authorize the administration to hire ETC Institute of Olathe, Kan., to conduct a multilevel survey of Toledoans.
The city plans to use the survey to supplement a new performance and outcome-based budgeting process to replace traditional line-item budgeting.
Mr. Finkbeiner's chief of staff, Bob Reinbolt, said the city would proceed in hiring the Kansas-based firm even though the University of Toledo's Urban Affairs Center is conducting a survey of its own.
"As far as the citizen survey, I think it's our responsibility to ask people what they think," Mr. Reinbolt said.
He said the UT study doesn't appear to cover everything that ETC could.
Councilman Mark Sobczak, chairman of council's economic development committee, said on Friday he would reserve judgment on the Social Compact analysis.
"I know we are going to do a citizen survey for the outcome-based budgeting," he said. "As far as this comprehensive study, I guess I'd have to take a look at it."
But Mr. Sobczak said receiving a bump in the census estimate could be extremely beneficial.
City leaders would agree, Toledo has had its ups and downs.
Huge cranes are helping build a new arena downtown. But just blocks away, workers are preparing to padlock downtown's family-friendly science museum.
Southwyck Shopping Center and the Marina District are both slated for redevelopment, but both projects have had their share of obstacles. Home foreclosures countywide are on the rise, the former North Towne Square mall in north Toledo is basically deserted, and major employers like Owens-Illinois Inc. have moved to new digs in the suburbs.
And although Toledo's Westfield Franklin Park usually has a healthy crowd of shoppers, the suburbs are home to the area's newest malls. The Shops at Fallen Timbers opened recently in Maumee, and Perrysburg's Levis Commons opened in 2005.
Still, Mr. Finkbeiner is optimistic and believes that the firm's independent report could uncover new opportunities within the city.
"We have North Towne mall, for example, sitting out there next to the fastest-growing neighborhood [near] the city of Toledo, Bedford Township," he said. "I would hope this study could look at that and see what buying opportunities and recreational opportunities there are along the Alexis Road corridor."
Detroit hired Social Compact to conduct a study, and city leadership organized its own challenge to the U.S. Census estimate.
Olga Savic, director of strategy and external affairs for the Detroit Economic Growth Corp., said data from the U.S. Census or traditional sources like Claritas don't tell the full story.
"They were not able to capture the dynamic changes that were going on in some of Detroit's neighborhoods, particularly those downtown and near downtown," she said.
After its challenge in October, Detroit went from 871,121 to 918,849 people.
Ms. Savic said the census makes assumptions that include discounting people from areas where there are older homes, and the way to challenge that is to submit building permit, new construction, and demolition data.
Mr. Badik said Social Compact's leadership thinks Toledo's census challenge would be successful.
The fact that Toledo has built more houses and apartments than it has demolished over the previous five years would go a long way in that effort. According to the city division of building inspection, permits were issued for 1,599 new dwelling units from 2002 through 2006, while 1,521 units were demolished.
In July, the U.S. Census Bureau said Toledo's suburban townships, villages, and counties have absorbed thousands of new residents over seven years.
Annual population estimates from the census bureau showed that Harding Township in rural western Lucas County had a 37.2 percent population increase since 2000, making it the fastest-growing jurisdiction in metropolitan Toledo.
Bedford Township, just over the state line in Michigan, had the greatest increase in growth - an estimated 2,745 more people than in 2000.
The population estimates showed that the residential areas of Toledo, Maumee, and Oregon in Lucas County and Perrysburg and Rossford in Wood County declined since the last head count.
Overall, the Toledo Metropolitan Statistical Area, which includes Lucas, Wood, Fulton, and Ottawa counties, was estimated at 653,695 residents as of July 1, 2006, down from 659,184 in 2000, a decline of almost 1 percent.
Toledo's population also sank below 300,000 for the first time since the 1940s. In 1940, Toledo's population was 282,349, and the city was less than half its current size, 80.6 square miles.
In each of the last two years, the city has met the mayor's goal of demolishing 300 houses.
Terry Glazer, executive director of the Lagrange Development Corp., said new houses are being built in older areas of Toledo, including the Lagrange area and around new Toledo Public Schools in the central city and North Toledo. "Our challenge is competing against the malls and big-box stores and creating neighborhood businesses," Mr. Glazer said.
Developer Larry Dillin, creator of the Levis Commons outdoor mall who has been tapped by Toledo to revitalize Southwyck and the Marina District, said he generally relies on what retailers tell him instead of studies.
"There have been a couple of studies done, not on the city as a whole, and I would say that kind of information is a benefit for someone thinking of making a financial investment in the community," Mr. Dillin said. "We study those kind of things in market analysis very carefully. It doesn't mean we always agree with it."
Contact Ignazio Messina at:
imessina@theblade.com
or 419-724-6171.
First Published December 24, 2007, 12:10 p.m.
