With each new report, scientists try harder to make this abundantly clear: Climate change is real, it’s happening now, it’s getting worse, and Americans should stop dismissing it as some faraway, nebulous concept that affects mostly polar bears.
And while it hasn’t become a runaway train in the Great Lakes region yet, climate change — if left to continue along its current trajectory — will wreak havoc on the national economy with annual losses in the “hundreds of billions of dollars by the end of the century — more than the current gross domestic product of many U.S. states,” according to the recently released second volume of the fourth National Climate Assessment.
For this area, it’s not simply a matter of dealing with a little more heat and a little more of western Lake Erie’s noxious algae. Northwest Ohio and southeast Michigan are part of America’s great Midwestern heartland, home of agricultural crops — many of them corn and soybeans — that feed the world.
The Great Lakes, too, remain among the nation’s most treasured natural resources.
For the Toledo area, it’s these two segments of the local DNA most imperiled by modern society’s impact on the environment.
Climate change isn’t just about the decline of iconic polar bears or any other species, but an accumulation of less sexy, more subtle effects: the gradual loss of moisture in the soil from the continued onslaught of greenhouse gases; an increase in the algae-forming runoff flowing into western Lake Erie.
Though the Midwest rarely gets more than the outer tail-whippin’ and after-effects of hurricanes that have slammed shorelines between Maine and Texas in recent years, the greater frequency and stronger intensity of storms often keep farmers from planting seeds on time and can impact their yields.
Joe Logan, Ohio Farmers Union president, said that although future weather predictions are always hazy, it is “very reasonable to expect stronger storms, more protracted droughts, and much higher pest pressure, including a high incidence of mold toxins, like aflatoxin in corn, soy, and small grain crops.
“The net result will be reduced yields and compromised qualities of major commodities,” Mr. Logan said. “Farmers will need to adapt by developing new cropping schedules and different crop choices.”
Additionally, carbon dioxide, methane, and other greenhouse gases are making the atmosphere more sponge-like and, thus, making it harder to keep soil at its optimum dampness, said Jonathan Overpeck, dean of the University of Michigan’s School for Environment and Sustainability
“Think of a sponge,” Mr. Overpeck said. “The atmosphere is becoming a much more effective sponge. The atmosphere is warmer and is trying to soak up more water.”
That’s where the Midwest has something in common with California wildfires: As soil out West gets drier, trees die faster and become better fuel for wildfires.
The new national climate change report notes the Midwest has forests covering more than 91 million acres itself. But Mr. Overpeck said a greater impact to this region could be the gradual cost agriculture will have to assume to make up for moisture losses with more irrigation, which will drive up food costs.
The region also isn’t getting as many of the all-day soakers that farmers need — and, as intense storms become more frequent, the challenges of keeping algae-forming runoff out of western Lake Erie waterways increase, the report states.
“Especially in Lake Erie, runoff from agricultural watersheds can carry large volumes of nutrients and sediments that can reduce water quality, potentially leading to hypoxia [inadequate oxygen supply], an occurrence that is predicted to be more likely as the climate continues to change,” it states. “Increased water temperatures and nutrient inputs also contribute to algal blooms, including harmful cyanobacterial algae that are toxic to people, pets, and many native species.”
The national assessment’s second volume is the latest in a series of clarion calls issued by many of the world’s top scientists, especially in recent years as carbon dioxide gases in the atmosphere have continued to climb beyond 400 parts per million. Though Earth has undergone several climatic cycles throughout its 5 billion-plus years, this is the only known time in which carbon levels have been that high since the human race has been on the planet.
The phenomenon, according to NASA, began in 2003 and shows no signs of reversal. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration records, which date back to 1880, show nine of Earth’s 10 warmest years in modern times have occurred since 2001. The lone outlier was only three years before that, in 1998.
A product of 13 federal agencies and more than 300 federal and nonfederal experts, the 1,600-page report attributes — among other things — nearly $400 billion of losses to the U.S. economy from damaging weather.
For the Great Lakes region and other parts of Midwest, it underscores the need for action because of greater impacts happening now to cold-water fish, wetlands, wildlife, trees, tourism, access to cooling water for power plants, and everything else from expensive, overwhelmed sewage networks to property values.
The report discusses how public health costs are going up because of heat stress, asthma, continued battles with smog, premature deaths from air pollution, a greater spread of tick infestations and Lyme disease, and mosquito-borne illnesses such as the Zika and West Nile viruses. A 2017 report released by the scientific group Climate Central offers a city-by-city breakdown which shows Toledo now, on average, has 20 more days of mosquitoes a year than it did in 1970.
Despite dire evidence of climate change that’s mounting in the Midwest, the effects in this part of the country haven’t been as acute as other parts of North America and the world, leading people to believe the Great Lakes region will be one of the softer landing spots for people seeking to relocate to a more stable climatic region.
Mr. Overpeck said he and his wife, Julia Cole, a professor in the University of Michigan’s Earth and Environmental Sciences department, can be considered climate refugees because, although they have relatives in the Ann Arbor area, their decision to leave their jobs at the University of Arizona after 25 years in Tucson was partly because of how rapidly they see impacts occurring to the arid Southwest.
“One of the things that are clear out there is it’s a crisis,” he said. “Michigan is much more stable now. Down in the southern tier, it’s literally going to drive people out of that region and drive them to the Great Lakes.”
The first volume of the national assessment came out in 2017. The second volume was originally planned for release this December, but the Trump Administration irked Mr. Overpeck and other scientists by moving the release date up to Nov. 23 — a move they consider an obvious attempt to downplay it while the public was distracted by Black Friday shopping.
President Trump further discredited the report by tweeting he doesn’t believe its conclusions.
“It appears the White House and the Republican Party have been taken over by the fossil fuel industry,” Mr. Overpeck said.
Lucas County Commissioner Tina Skeldon Wozniak, a Democrat, went a step farther by saying Mr. Trump is “really being grossly irresponsible” by jeopardizing the “economy, health, and well-being of our citizens” with his rejection of science.
“We’re very vulnerable right now,” she said. “To not take this report seriously is truly irresponsible. There are so many bites at this apple to showcase. Instead, it’s being tossed aside.”
Joe Cornely, Ohio Farm Bureau Federation communications director, said the report appears to echo what’s in several other documents, but said it “validates agriculture’s call to Washington that more agricultural research is essential.”
Frank Szollosi, National Wildlife Federation Great Lakes Climate Policy director, said the physics of the climate system “couldn’t care less” if Mr. Trump believes in climate change or not, and said the report “should be required reading for the new Great Lakes governors and legislators.”
“The report makes it clear that climate is a ‘threat multiplier’,” he said.
Toxic algal blooms will get worse with warmer, wetter weather. Invasive species such as Asian carp will find warmer water conducive to crowding out yellow perch and walleye, Mr. Szollosi said.
“Poor people, children, the elderly and other people at risk will bear the brunt of it, as they are less able to adapt to the excessive heat, increased flooding and the economic disruption all coming our way,” he said. “Pollinators critical to agriculture, such as bees and butterflies, face increasing burdens. Wildlife species already disrupted by land use change will face extinction from the shifting climate. Toledo and Lucas County are not immune from formerly tropical illnesses making their way north, from Zika to West Nile to record cases of Lyme disease.”
First Published December 2, 2018, 3:44 a.m.
