Coronavirus got you down?
Here’s some good news: The western Lake Erie region might be catching a break on algae this summer.
Although it’s preliminary and subject to change, the first summer algae forecast for 2020 came out Wednesday morning and it said we can anticipate one of the milder blooms in recent years.
Rain and other weather patterns have been fairly normal this spring, compared to the relentless downpours of a year ago. In fact, 2019 almost certainly would have produced a record algal bloom if the rain hadn’t been as nonstop as it was back then, because it kept many farmers from planting seed and fertilizing their fields.
But while much of the world has gone haywire over the global coronavirus pandemic, our regional weather patterns — on the heels of an unusually warm and relatively snow-free winter — have been one of the few things that have had a sense of normalcy about them this spring.
Rain is probable at various times over the next two weeks, but it is not likely to move the needle too far off the prediction that a group of scientists have made for a relatively mild bloom, according to Rick Stumpf, an oceanographer with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration who has coordinated western Lake Erie algae forecasts since they began years ago.
“People need to get out and enjoy the lake this summer,” Mr. Stumpf said. “At least it [the forecast for a mild bloom] is going in the right direction so far.”
According to the first of about seven weekly forecasts NOAA scientists expect to issue in collaboration with other researchers prior to the final forecast on July 9, this summer’s bloom severity is projected to be about 4 on a scale of 10.
The margin of error built into the calculation — mostly for unknown rainfall — allows for it to be no stronger than a 6, which is still less than the 7.5 recorded from 2019’s bloom and the 10.5 from the record 2015 bloom.
The 2015 bloom exceed 10 on the severity index because scientists thought the previous record, established in 2011, would never be exceeded.
The severity index includes a bloom’s size, but other factors as well, such as its density.
“There is still uncertainty in the projected maximum severity because of limitations in forecasting the exact location and amount of rainfall the rest of May,” according to the projection, which includes data from Heidelberg University’s National Center for Water Quality Research in Tiffin.
“We’re not looking at weather patterns resulting in huge amounts of rain,” Mr. Stumpf said.
The toxicity of a bloom does not correlate with its size.
The 2014 bloom which caused the three-day Toledo water crisis was the sixth largest on record. Although blooms have occurred almost annually since 1995, the current set of data began with the start of NASA’s aerial surveillance in 2002.
The coronavirus pandemic hasn’t affected NOAA’s ability to get satellite data or images from a low-altitude NASA research airplane, Mr. Stumpf said.
But it made forecasting a little more challenging, and it is expected to complicate efforts for university researchers to pull samples this summer for toxicity research.
Laura Johnson, the Heidelberg University water lab’s director, said the concentration of algae-growing dissolved phosphorus is “pretty much on par” with what would be expected given the amount of farm runoff which has occurred so far this spring.
But she also said her center is “operating under reduced water sampling” this spring because of how the coronavirus pandemic has affected normal shipping of water samples. It also has, in some cases, kept pumps from being replaced on a timely basis. At some locations, thrice-daily sampling was reduced to daily.
Most of the center’s conclusions for western Lake Erie this spring are based on samples along the Maumee River from a station in Waterville, Ms. Johnson said.
She said the center is probably getting only 30 to 40 percent of the data it normally gets from multiple sampling stations across Ohio. It has little or no data this spring from five tributaries it normally samples — including two Lake Erie tributaries, the River Raisin and the Cuyahoga River. The other three are in the Ohio River watershed, the Muskingum, Scioto, and Great Miami rivers.
“We’re doing all the things we can to make sure the data we’re using doesn’t need to have an asterisk,” Ms. Johnson said. “I am concerned about losing a year of toxin data.”
Tim Davis, a Bowling Green State University algae researcher formally employed by NOAA, said no undergraduates will be allowed on research vessels this summer, and the number of graduate students will be limited.
Overall sample-gathering and lab analysis could be slowed by social distancing requirements, which he said the university takes seriously.
“We have gotten clearance to do sampling,” he said, adding that he and other researchers are “committed to doing what we are able to do to collect samples.”
BGSU researchers focus on Lake Erie’s Sandusky Bay, as well as some open parts of the lake.
“We know we don’t want to lose a year of field sampling if we can help it,” Mr. Davis said. “But we need to make sure we’re doing that safely.
Sandy Bihn, Lake Erie Waterkeeper executive director, said her environmental group would like to know how much phosphorus has been added to the Maumee River watershed from manure generated by various animals, including new and expanded concentrated animal feeding operations, or CAFOs, which have thousands of hogs.
“Billions [of dollars] have been spent to reduce algae in Lake Erie with little to no phosphorus/algae reductions,” Ms. Bihn said. “Millions of dollars are lost every year because of the algae. It is time to tally phosphorus reduction and not add more manure/phosphorous to the system.”
First Published May 13, 2020, 4:26 p.m.
