Halfway through their early season projections, scientists still believe western Lake Erie’s 2022 algal bloom will be a relatively mild one.
At worst, it should be no more intense than last summer’s bloom, according to the latest National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration bulletin issued Tuesday.
That one was a 6 on a 10-point scale.
Odds are, though, it will be more like the 2020 outbreak, NOAA stated.
That one was only a 3 on the same scale, which NOAA calls its severity index.
The 2015 bloom is the worst since record-keeping began in 2002, followed by the 2011 bloom, records show.
NOAA began the early season predictions following Toledo’s 2014 algae-driven water crisis, after water-treatment plant operators, businesses, and others asked to see modeling as it was taking shape.
Assisting the federal agency with that work is Heidelberg University’s National Center for Water Quality Research, which maintains the Great Lakes region’s only continuous set of water-quality sampling going back to 1974.
When the first of several early season predictions for 2022 was issued May 11, NOAA said it appeared that only a mild bloom was likely.
But it also cautioned there were many variables — heavier than expected rain, for example — that could change that prediction because it was so early in the season.
Now, nearly a month later, the science has gelled a little more.
NOAA still cautions that things could change before it issues its formal prediction for this summer three weeks from now, on June 30, though.
“If precipitation for the rest of the spring continues to match the early season forecast of near average rainfall, a smaller bloom, similar to 2020, is likely,” NOAA stated in its latest bulletin. “While June and July are expected to have average rainfall, there is still uncertainty in the size of rain events.”
Scientists believe runoff between March 1 and July 31 is the most crucial window of time for determining the size and intensity of a bloom each summer.
The new information was released a day before state agency directors are scheduled to meet at Put-in-Bay for their Ohio Lake Erie Commission quarterly meeting. The 10 a.m. Wednesday meeting, open to the public, is at the Aquatic Visitors Center, 360 W. Shore Blvd.
In addition to being briefed on the bloom outlook, the commission plans to hear a special presentation from the Ohio Department of Natural Resources about Lake Erie fisheries. The Lake Erie Marine Trades Association also will provide an update on recreational boating on Lake Erie.
First Published June 7, 2022, 8:06 p.m.
