WINDSOR, Ont. — Warmer, wetter, and — yes — even a bit wilder.
While the planet continues to warm, the 40 million people who live in the Great Lakes region can expect more of what they’ve encountered in recent years with a few more twists — such as even drier summers and milder winters, with less ice cover and fewer freezing days.
Those were some of the take-home messages on Friday from two of the Great Lakes region’s leading climatologists.
They made their remarks on the final day of the International Association for Great Lakes Research conference across from Detroit in Windsor, Ont. The event is the largest annual gathering of Great Lakes scientists, with about 800 people in attendance this year.
It will be in Milwaukee in 2025.
Both gave presentations tailored as closely as possible to the Great Lakes region, based on science they said that — while always prone to having some variability, like almost anything in nature — has coalesced with a little more certainty.
Richard B. “Ricky” Rood, a University of Michigan professor emeritus of climate and space sciences and engineering, went so far as to say that people should stop thinking in terms of “a new norm.”
“We are currently in a state in which every 10 years is different than the previous 10 years,” he said.
Don Wuebbles, a University of Illinois professor emeritus of climate, meteorology, and atmospheric sciences, said precipitation in the Great Lakes region has risen 10 percent over the past 100 years and is likely to rise another 10 percent before the end of the century.
Mr. Wuebbles, a lead author of Midwest chapters for previous IPCC and National Climate Assessment reports, said he is part of a team that has refined Great Lakes climate predictions for a scientific paper that is coming out soon.
The difficult thing for some people to understand will be drier summers following winters and springs marked by excessive rain, he said.
Impacts won’t be evenly spread across the Great Lakes region or other parts of the country, the two speakers said.
“We're particularly seeing this increase in winter and spring, and we predict summers will become drier in the Great Lakes region,” Mr. Wuebbles said of his research team’s upcoming report. “When it does rain or snow, it's likely to be a more significant event because of more energy in the atmosphere.”
Much of the Great Lakes region precipitation is a result of changes to the Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico, they said.
There will likely be more flooding events around mid-century, in part because major storm events are expected to last longer and be more frequent.
Even some of the Great Lakes region’s colder areas, such as Michigan’s Upper Peninsula, northern Wisconsin, and northern Minnesota, won’t reliably freeze as often as years past, Mr. Rood said.
“I think it’s important to convey there’s no one thing climate change will do,” he said.
Drought-and-flood cycles will likely continue across the Great Lakes region and the continental United States for the next couple of decades.
Even with precipitation having the edge across much of the Great Lakes region, the possibility for occasional periods of drought should not be overlooked, Mr. Rood said.
“The responsible planner also has to plan for drought,” he said.
Deanna Fielder, a physical scientist for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers district office in Detroit, said during her presentation there have been signs of variability in water levels across the Great Lakes in recent years.
But Lake Erie and Lake Ontario have shown a long-term, increasing trend since 1918.
Precipitation in general has been on the rise across the Great Lakes region since at least 1950, according to her presentation.
Another presenter talked about research into attitudes related to agriculture.
Stephen P. Gasteyer, a Michigan State University associate professor of sociology, said he found that farmers and others in the agricultural industry are more likely to participate in water-conservation efforts when shown more respect for experiences they’ve had with their land.
“Young farmers and women farmers tend to be more conservation-minded,” Mr. Gasteyer said.
But his research also showed that demographic — while more likely to adopt best-management practices — also struggles with land and equipment costs.
Such concerns need to be taken more seriously, he said.
“They feel like they sort of get brushed aside,” Mr. Gasteyer said.
First Published May 24, 2024, 10:23 p.m.
