Exactly how far President-Elect Donald Trump moves America away from environmental-energy policies promoted by the Biden-Harris Administration over the past four years is yet to be seen.
But experts generally agree it’ll be at least as swift and dramatic of a change as when he took over the White House from former President Barack Obama on Jan. 20, 2017.
Coincidentally, the world’s largest summit on climate change begins Monday in Baku, Azerbaijan, days after the U.S. election. Delegates from around the world will meet for two weeks of United Nations COP29 negotiations.
COP stands for Conference of the Parties. The current framework for addressing climate treaty on a global level, known as the Paris Agreement, emerged from the 2015 COP summit in France and was the result of negotiations between 196 parties. It was denounced by Trump throughout his first term. He has repeatedly called climate change a hoax since then, most recently during his presidential campaign.
One of the many post-election events Wednesday was a webinar hosted by Houston-based Bracewell, a global law and government relations firm that specializes in energy, infrastructure, finance, and technology.
The nearly two-hour event, attended by about 400 viewers, began with Scott Segal, head of Bracewell’s Policy Resolution Group, wondering aloud how far Trump might go now that he’s returning to the White House with a Republican majority in the U.S. Senate and the possibility of a Republican majority in the U.S. House of Representatives.
“Does that mean he’s more likely to run with the populist football?” Mr. Segal asked the speakers.
Liam P. Donovan, a Bracewell senior political strategist and a former member of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said there’s “an element of the ‘revenge tour’ that’s probably inevitable here,” but also said that Democrats recognized “the danger of putting climate front and center” in what was expected to be a nail-biter of an election.
“It put them on the defensive, whereas Republicans were able to play offense,” Mr. Donovan said. “It put them in a very uncomfortable position.”
While many people are speculating how much more drilling for oil will occur and how much less renewable energy will be supported by the incoming administration, U.S. Rep. Nikki Budzinski (D., Ill.) said one of the bigger changes could simply be in the regulatory atmosphere.
Ms. Budzinski said she endorses an “all-of-the-above” approach to energy.
“I think we want to be building more and building faster,” she said. “I do think that permitting reform is something that has bipartisan support.”
Mark W. Menezes, president and CEO of the United States Energy Association, said he believes North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum is a lock to join Trump’s Cabinet as Energy Secretary. Several media reports during the summer show the two had preliminary talks about just that.
Mr. Burgum would become the latest governor appointed as Secretary of Energy, following former Texas Gov. Rick Perry and former Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm, Mr. Menezes noted.
“You get a lot of skill sets when you bring a former governor in to run a federal agency,” he said. Mr. Menezes served as deputy energy secretary near the end of Trump’s first term, and as under secretary of energy before that.
He agreed that permit reform, while not so visible to the public, should become one of the bigger issues of the future Trump presidency.
“The hallmark of what I should expect of this Trump administration is to look where restrictions can be lifted,” Mr. Menezes said.
The Energy Department under Trump will “look for opportunities for other technologies,” such as small, nuclear-powered modular reactors or continued investment in making nuclear fusion practical, he said.
The purpose of the DOE’s loan program office is “to take technological risks” on promising technologies, Mr. Menezes said.
“The DOE could help with the technological risk to push out a new technology,” he said.
Mr. Segal said he expects to see, at the minimum, an “aggressive approach to fossil fuel expansion” under Trump.
There will be “an immediate spate” of drilling permits, as well as executive orders for pipeline approvals, including those previously rejected, he said.
Although Mr. Segal did not mention the Keystone XL pipeline by name, Trump harshly criticized President Biden for his opposition to it throughout his campaign. But he also said the U.S. role as a climate change leader could have “serious issues” with Trump’s opposition.
“The Paris Agreement on Climate Change is going to continue to be under fire,” Mr. Segal said.
Closer to home, it is not known how Trump’s presidency might affect the pace of construction Enbridge Inc. believes it is on with its plans to build a tunnel beneath the Straits of Mackinac for a replacement Line 5 pipeline. The pipeline serves the Toledo area, and has become a point of contention between Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer.
“There will be opportunities and challenges ahead for the energy sector and we will work with the new administration, Congress, and all levels of government to deliver affordable, reliable, and cleaner energy that sustains local and regional economies and supports U.S. competitiveness,” Ryan Duffy, Enbridge spokesman, said in a statement to The Blade after the webinar.
Both parties have been supportive of nuclear power to varying degrees over the years, with Democrats such as Mr. Obama and Mr. Biden acknowledging it has a role in keeping down climate-altering carbon emissions.
“We look forward to working with the new administration to advance policies that extend the lives of existing nuclear reactors, usher in a new era of advanced technologies, and support a global marketplace for U.S. exports,” Maria Korsnick, president and CEO of the Washington-based Nuclear Energy Institute, told The Blade in an email.
“Nuclear energy is one of the few issues that receives bipartisan support across the country,” she wrote. “Nuclear generation is uniquely positioned to help the United States achieve our climate and national security goals, while creating a reliable energy system to meet growing demand.”
Several environmental groups expressed fears over what the next Trump presidency will mean to Earth’s natural resources.
The Cambridge, Mass.-based Union of Concerned Scientists said it “is daunting to take stock of the new hurdles we see to progress, especially at a time when the deadly and costly impacts of climate change are so clear across the nation.”
“Trump’s re-election cannot be an excuse for other nations to scale back ambition,” 350.org stated.
Manish Bapna, president of the Natural Resources Defense Council, said America “is in uncharted waters.”
“Americans want our government to confront the climate crisis, not slam climate progress into reverse. President-elect Trump won the election, but his billionaire oil and gas cronies don’t get to rule,” Mr. Bapna said.
American Petroleum Institute President and CEO Mike Sommers said, though, that “voters sent a clear signal that they want choices, not mandates, and an all-of-the-above approach that harnesses our nation’s resources.”
First Published November 6, 2024, 11:17 p.m.
