COLUMBUS — For Ohio Democrats these days, state legislative elections have become more about upending Republican super-majorities than aspiring to take over chambers.
In the Senate, Republicans outnumber Democrats 24-9, and it will be more about Democrats trying to stop the bleeding that continued in 2018 with the loss of a traditionally Democratic seat in the Youngstown area.
In the House, the margin is 61-38 after Democrats managed to pick up five seats in the 2018 mid-term election. Two more pickups would be needed to end the GOP's veto-proof super-majority, but Democrats would need an unlikely dozen to take back the speaker's podium.
Northwest Ohio holds few opportunities for Democrats, particularly since the party has failed to field candidates to take on three Republican incumbents — Reps. Jim Hoops of Napoleon, Jon Cross of Kenton, and Bob Cupp of Lima. Granted, the three rural districts — the 81st, 83rd, and 4th, respectively — would be tough for any Democrat.
Incumbent Rep. Paula Hicks-Hudson (D., Toledo), the third-highest ranking Democrat in the House, plans to run as a write-in candidate in central Toledo’s 44th District after a paperwork snafu. But this remains among the most Democratic-performing districts in the state, leaving little room for a Republican pickup here.
Republicans are offering Robert McMahon, of Toledo.
Democrats’ best shot in the region may be the 89th District covering Ottawa and Erie counties, a competitive district that sent a Democrat to Columbus for decades before shifting Republican in 2014. It has since become an even deeper shade of red.
The seat is now held by Republican D.J. Swearingen, a Huron attorney appointed in mid-2019 to replace Steve Arndt, who retired.
“It's not only a top seat for northwest Ohio, it's one of the top seats in state to turn from red to blue,” said Aryeh Alex, campaign director for House Democrats. “It's a good opportunity for a pickup.”
Democrats are offering Alexis Miller, a communications consultant from Sandusky who once served as an intern in the House and Senate.
“She's a very different type of candidate, always going door to door, even in December,” Mr. Alex saiid. “That shows a very different type of grass-roots campaign.”
In most cases, based on preliminary petition filings at the county level, candidates will be able to save their resources for the November general election. In the northwestern corner of the state, just two Senate districts and a single House district offer contests for the March 17 primary election.
The fight for the Republican nomination in the 26th Senate District already has proven contentious.
State Rep. Bill Reineke (R., Tiffin) is leaving his House seat vulnerable as he runs in the rural Senate district stretching from Sandusky Bay south to Union County. He faces a primary fight with Melissa Ackison, a Marysville businessman who ran unsuccessfully in 2016 for the party's nomination for U.S. Senate.
Craig Swartz, an Upper Sandusky Democrat, is unopposed for his party's nomination to battle either Mr. Reineke or Ms. Ackison,
The opening awaits as the term-limits clock of current Sen. Dave Burke (R., Marysville) ticks down. But as chairman of the Republican Senate Campaign Committee, he hopes to help Mr. Reineke replace him.
“He comes from an area of the district that [former Republican lawmaker] Paul Gillmor came from,” Mr. Burke said. “He's very much a statesman that I would want representing my family on difficult decisions like taxation, education, and policy matters that require compromise and experience. I think he is a lot like myself in that first downs matter when it comes to moving the ball.”
He said the 32nd District in the northeastern corner of the state, held by Sen. Sean O'Brien (D., Bazetta), is the prime target for Republican hopes to pick up an unprecedented 25th seat in the 33-member chamber. The district abuts a Mahoning Valley district that shifted red in the era of President Donald Trump, and the performance of Mr. Trump in November at the top of the ticket may set the tone for what happens in down-ticket races.
Democrats, meanwhile, are eying Sen. Stephanie Kunze (R., Hilliard) in the suburban Columbus 16th District as their best chance of reversing its gradual erosion of power in the upper chamber.
Mr. Alex said Mr. Reineke's early departure from the House leaves vulnerable his 88th District covering Sandusky County and most of Seneca.
Three Republicans are seeking to replace Mr. Reineke on the ballot — Gary Click, a Fremont pastor; Ed Ollom, a Fremont environmental engineer; and Shayne Thomas, a Seneca County commissioner. Chris Liebold, a Fremont city councilman and Sandusky County's Democratic chairman, has no opposition in his bid for the Democratic nomination.
Mr. Alex concedes that this district is less friendly to Democrats that Mr. Swearingen's neighboring district.
Democrats are again eying the 3rd District in Wood County, held by Rep. Haraz Ghanbari (R., Perrysburg), and suburban Toledo's 47th District, held by Rep. Derek Merrin (R., Monclova Township), as potential upsets.
Democrats are arming Laurel Johnson, of Weston, and Sylvania retired social worker Nancy Larson, to do battle against them, respectively.
First Published January 6, 2020, 12:30 p.m.
