In 2012, Ohio was one of three states where the greatest amount of money was spent on presidential television campaign advertising.
Ohio was considered a “swing state” because of its unbroken record since 1960 of voting for the candidate who ended up winning the election. The last time Ohio voted for the “wrong” presidential candidate was 1960 when Republican Richard Nixon carried Ohio, but Democrat John Kennedy won.
But Ohio’s days as the ultimate bellwether state appear to be over.
Michael Halle, the manager of Democratic governor candidate Rich Cordray’s campaign, told the New York Times that Democratic presidential candidates shouldn’t waste their money trying to win Ohio. It’s turned red, he said.
While the election was a blue wave for Democrats in other parts of the country — including Michigan and Wisconsin — Democrats made only modest gains in Ohio, while Republicans once again swept the five statewide offices and retained veto-proof majorities in both houses of the General Assembly. Ohio’s GOP-gerrymandered congressional districts stood like a concrete wall against the blue wave.
In the 5th Congressional District, Democrat nominee Michael Galbraith ran just about the best campaign possible, offering independent and conservative leaning voters a moderate voice (as financial adviser, son of a former Republican state legislator) in hopes of teasing a few away from the Republican nominee, Bob Latta of Bowling Green.
Voters in the 14-county district didn’t fall for it. Mr. Latta ran his usual blithe campaign of ignoring his opponent and the issues that his opponent cared about, and Mr. Galbraith gained only 35 percent of the vote.
David Jackson, a Bowling Green State University political science professor, noted that Mr. Cordray got fewer votes in 14 counties than did the 2014 Democratic nominee for governor, Ed FitzGerald, whose campaign was a total washout.
Ohio is sticking with the Republicans.
Republicans in the Ohio General Assembly are acting like there was no blue wave at all. GOP lawmakers returning for the lame duck session quickly doubled down on a conservative agenda. No Republican politicians paid a price at the ballot box for the debacle of the Electronic Classroom of Tomorrow e-school or the pay-to-play allegations that forced the resignation of the former House speaker earlier this year.
Democratic number crunchers point out that it wasn’t all bad news for them. Mainly, they cite the outpouring of Democratic votes that were frustrated by gerrymanded statehouse and Congressional districts.
While Republican candidates won 72 of the 116 Statehouse races, Democratic candidates got more votes than Republican candidates.
State Democratic Chairman David Pepper found many silver linings in the Ohio mid-term cloud. He tweeted, “Our unsuccessful statewide candidates ran closer as a group than any year since 2006.”
There’s a campaign slogan in there somewhere.
From a 2020 presidential election point of view, Ohio stayed red while two other Midwest states that voted for President Trump (Michigan and Wisconsin) elected Democratic governors. That’s a sign that those two states are far from safe for President Trump’s re-election. If Ohio comes into play in 2020, the election will already be over for Mr. Trump. The message of Ohio voters is that this will not be considered a swing state in 2020.
First Published November 16, 2018, 12:15 p.m.
