The United States and Russia appear set to reboot their relations, but that may not be a good thing, at least as long as Donald Trump is our President.
On Tuesday, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo met with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov and then with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who reportedly made him wait three hours.
Russian state media reported that issues discussed by Mr. Pompeo and Mr. Putin included Syria, Afghanistan, and Venezuela, but not Ukraine or human rights.
The news came as Russian media gloated about the United States’ readiness to reverse its policy of containment of Russia and move on with business as usual that was put on hold in November after Russia attacked Ukrainian ships in international waters, seizing sailors it has since been holding.
The Russians may be right this time.
The meeting between Mr. Pompeo and Mr. Lavrov was the first official contact between the two governments since the maritime assault. That unprovoked act of aggression was one of the latest in a series of land grabs and military interventions that Russia has pulled off in recent years, incurring international economic sanctions that have been strangling its economy.
Mr. Pompeo met with the Russians the day after President Trump announced that he would meet with Mr. Putin at the annual G-20 world leaders’ get-together in Japan next month.
Russian state television promptly bragged that it was the United States that requested that the two presidents meet in Japan.
That may well be true, seeing as the news about the intent was released by Mr. Trump while Mr. Putin remained silent on the subject.
At the Sochi meeting, Mr. Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, told Mr. Pompeo it was time Moscow and Washington reversed their mutual mistrust and figured out how to cooperate on issues of mutual interest.
As reported by Reuters, Mr. Pompeo said: “I’m here today because President Trump is committed to improving this relationship ... I hope that we can find places where we have a set of overlapping interests and continue to build out strong relationships, at least on those particular issues.”
He then named counter-terrorism and combating nuclear proliferation as potential areas of cooperation.
To be sure, cooperation in those two areas would indisputably further the United States’ and Russia’s respective national interests.
That’s provided both the United States and Russia pursue such cooperation in good faith — and not as an excuse to advance political agendas of Messrs. Trump and Putin.
Mr. Trump and Mr. Putin have had multiple phone conversations that were not recorded by the American side.
However, what Mr. Putin is seeking from the United States first and foremost is no secret. It is the abolishment of the economic sanctions that are contributing to the slipping living standards and his declining popular support in Russia.
The Russian autocrat is also interested in the United States looking the other way as his efforts to undermine the independent Ukraine continue.
Finally, he is interested in normalizing the bilateral relations so he can meet Mr. Trump publicly, with the latter sure to oblige him with supportive rhetoric, as it happened in the past, most infamously at their July news conference in Helsinki.
Mr. Putin needs that publicity to maintain his international status as the sponsor of right-wing movements and dictatorships that he nurtures as international allies as he pursues aggressive foreign policy to feed Russian chauvinism, on which his grip on Russia is based.
As for Mr. Trump, his motives in translating his personal affection toward Mr. Putin into an official U.S. policy of rapprochement with the aggressive Russia remain to be fully understood pending the results of ongoing Congressional investigations into the matters left open by the Mueller investigation into the Russia scandal.
The most immediate and undesirable outcome of such rapprochement is two-fold.
First — regardless of Mr. Pompeo’s over-reported nominal warning to the Russians not to interfere in the upcoming U.S. presidential elections issued in Sochi — the Trump campaign is sure to use any normalization in relations with Russia to undermine U.S. efforts to prevent Russia from influencing the elections in Mr. Trump’s favor the way Russia did in 2016.
Second, Mr. Trump’s threat of war with Iran may well materialize once Mr. Putin signs off on it as a concession to Mr. Trump for anticipated favors, such as relieving the sanctions.
While helping Mr. Trump to rally his base, such a war would be disastrous — it would exact a human, financial, and moral toll on us by far in excess of what the unwarranted second war in Iraq did.
The war also would hurt the cause of nuclear nonproliferation — which Messrs. Pompeo and Lavrov supposedly care so much about — by demonstrating that there is no other effective way to guarantee non-aggression by another state than access to nuclear weapons.
Two directly opposite U.S. policies — one toward nuclear-armed South Korea and the other toward Iran that has no nuclear weapons — attest to that.
As for Mr. Putin, a U.S. military campaign in Iran would be a godsend.
It’s guaranteed to hurt Iran’s oil production, thus affecting the world oil supply and boosting oil prices. That would significantly benefit both the Russian economy and Mr. Putin’s personal coffers, which rely heavily on oil exports.
The bottom line is the American interest mandates that we steer clear of rapprochement with Russia at least until after the 2020 presidential elections.
Mike Sigov, a former Russian journalist in Moscow, is a U.S. citizen and a staff writer for The Blade.
First Published May 19, 2019, 4:17 p.m.
