Russia’s nuclear saber rattling continues, making some wonder what to make of it.

Elon Musk, for example, took it seriously enough to publish his own “peace plan'' on Twitter calling for Ukraine’s neutrality and for Ukraine to cede Crimea to Russia and tweeted that “nuclear war probability is rising rapidly.”

If the world’s richest (according to Bloomberg) person is apparently worried, should we be too?

The answer is no.

That’s not just because the Russian nuclear blackmail dates all the way back to the Cold War and that nothing has changed since then, meaning that the nuclear-weapons parity between Russia and the West with its guaranteed mutual destruction remains as effective a deterrent now as it was then.

Russia’s receding red line also testifies to the emptiness of the threat.

The last threat came last week, issued by Dmitriy Medvedev, a longtime President Vladimir Putin minion, a former Russian president and prime minister now a deputy head of Russia’s security council.

“The quickest way to escalate the conflict to the irreversible consequences of a world war” would be to ship longer-range missile systems to Ukraine, Mr. Medvedev said according to official Russian media outlets.

Mr. Medvedev was referring to what Ukraine has been asking the United States for a while – ATACMs, long-range missiles with a 190-mile range and capable of carrying a warhead containing nearly 400 pounds of explosives.

The warning was issued Tuesday after Russia shelled major cities across Ukraine – killing at least 11 civilians dead and injuring at least 89 – in apparent retaliation against a perceived Ukrainian strike that damaged the massive Kerch Bridge linking the Russia-annexed Crimea to Russia proper.

The humiliating attack came just hours after Mr. Putin celebrated his 70th birthday. The bridge, the longest in Europe, was Mr. Putin’s brainchild and pride. Not only was it meant to be a symbol of Russia’s imperial revival but also served as the main supply venue for the invading Russian forces.

The Kremlin did not follow through with the threat when the sacral symbol of Russia’s imperial revival — the bridge – was struck.

Instead, Russia reacted to that humiliating attack by deliberately attacking civilian targets — which has been its typical response to military defeats in Ukraine.

The irony is that Mr. Medvedev had previously issued a similar threat. Speaking during a broadcast address in July, he said that NATO’s refusal to recognize Crimea as part of Russia is a “direct and clear threat” and warned against strikes at any targets in Crimea.

“If something like that happens, they will all simultaneously face Doomsday — very quick and hard,” Mr. Medvedev said.

Tellingly, that threat failed to materialize after a perceived Ukrainian strike at a major Russian military airfield in Crimea on August 10.

Moreover, Mr. Putin — personally and explicitly — said on Russian television that his warnings of using nuclear weapons in case of perceived threat to Russian territorial integrity and statehood “are not a bluff.”

That was around the time the Kremlin was racing against time to hold sham referendums at the Ukrainian territories it then annexed even as the Ukrainian military counter offensive was liberating parts of them late last month.

The implied message was, “These territories now are Russia proper, so we are free to resort to nuclear weapons if they are attacked.” Independent experts agreed that he was referring to a potential use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine.

As it happened, Russia did not act on the threat when Ukraine liberated almost the whole of one of those four territories in question.

Also, Bloomberg might be wrong, and the world’s richest man might secretly be Mr. Putin, as Fortune wondered in its March 2 edition and as many experts believe.

With billions stashed around the world, Mr. Putin certainly entertains scenarios in which he disappears from the public view and enjoys his riches if Russia slips from his grip as its populace realizes that all that hype about making Russia great again was just a smokescreen for an autocrat pillaging his country.

Mr. Putin may be manic, but he is hardly suicidal. Mass attacks against civilians by means of conventional weapons will likely remain Russia’s standard practice in Ukraine.

The United States and its allies would do well both for Ukraine and for themselves if they stand up to the Russian nuclear blackmail.

We can best do it by doing exactly what Mr. Putin fears the most. Let’s give ATACMs to Ukraine and speed up its victory.

Mike Sigov, a former Russian journalist in Moscow, is a U.S. citizen and a staff writer at The Blade.

First Published October 16, 2022, 4:00 a.m.