Miscommunication, and the resulting miscalculations, escalate tensions and risks in any showdown between nuclear powers. It is, therefore, essential the United States and its allies make clear that a cyberattack on American or allied domestic infrastructure is a red line that will invoke the Article V mutual defense pact of NATO, meaning an attack on one is an attack on all.
In Ukraine, the world is witnessing a first-of-its-kind conflict contested with a variety of nontraditional weapons, including those of finance and, potentially, cyberspace on an unprecedented scale. Scholars and historians will study the use of sanctions, social media, and other indirect interventions for generations to come.
Like any innovation in war and statecraft, however, these new weapons require prudence and restraint to avert a series of dangerous escalations. The most precarious decisions are made when one side misunderstands what the adversary will consider unacceptable.
The Cuban Missile Crisis underscores the risks of nuclear brinksmanship.
American missiles in the east Mediterranean triggered panic in the Kremlin, resulting in a move to station nuclear weapons in Cuba. This, in turn panicked Washington. It took the famous Thirteen Days of diplomacy to end the crisis and restore something close to trust between the superpowers.
Today, the red-line tripwires are even vaguer. At what point is undermining a nation’s currency and central bank, or restricting the movement of its people and goods, an act of war?
Nobody knows.
Even so, Russian President Vladimir Putin has every reason to act with restraint. NATO and nuclear weapons together present an assortment of flaming red lines that he knows he cannot cross without courting destruction of his people, and all people.
There is no question about what happens if a rocket intentionally lands in Warsaw. Even Mr. Putin should understand no one wins in the aftermath.
But some red lines are much less clear. What about American electrical grids and pipelines and water treatment plants?
A cornered strongman might think he could strike a blow against American or allied infrastructure and avoid a catastrophic escalation.
For the sake of Americans’ safety, and the stability of this unpredictable conflict, President Biden ought to make it clear to Mr. Putin that domestic infrastructure is no less a tripwire than a column of incoming tanks.
Last June, Mr. Biden reportedly gave Mr. Putin a list of American assets that would trigger retaliation. Some commentators complained the President had given his Russian counterpart a checklist of targets, but now the move looks prescient.
Mr. Putin can’t claim ignorance if he greenlights a cyberattack on one of these assets.
Mr. Biden and NATO need to make clear, publicly and unequivocally, that potentially deadly cyberattacks on domestic infrastructure would trigger Article V.
This is a new kind of war, where the rules and risks are unclear. To avoid miscommunication and the resulting escalation or brinkmanship, the United States and its allies must make sure Mr. Putin clearly understands his limits.
First Published March 1, 2022, 5:00 a.m.
