Usually, at this stage of the college basketball season, most conferences have started to sift their contenders from the rest of the field.
Luckily, if you’re the type of person who enjoys an air of general chaos, the Mid-American Conference looks to be open season for the rest of 2020.
Through six league games, the East Division is better than the West (as usual), and Eastern Michigan looks like the clear No. 12, but other than that, you could make a legitimate case for seven or eight teams making a run in March.
That brings us to league favorite Bowling Green, which crossed the first of three mile markers in the MAC at 5-1 and 14-5 overall. The Falcons seemingly have all the pieces to make a run, but predicting the MAC is an enter-at-your-own-peril endeavor.
Final record: 21-10 (12-6 MAC)
The first third of Bowling Green’s MAC schedule was the soft part. Now it gets fun. In their final dozen MAC games, BG has to play Toledo, Akron, Buffalo, and Ball State twice each, plus it still has road trips to Kent State, Central Michigan, and Miami.
That’s a rugged stretch of games from which I picked the Falcons to go 7-5, and that’s probably on the optimistic side. The Falcons however, have a shown a propensity to win close games even when their shots aren’t falling — they’re 6-0 in one-score games — and chances are good they’ll see quite a few games down the stretch that come down to the final five minutes.
Postseason fate: MAC tournament championship game
Come March, I want to know three things about a team:
1.Can they get a stop when they absolutely need one?
2. Is their free-throw shooting an asset or a liability?
3. Can the bench win a game?
No. 3 is a confident “yes.” No. 1 needs more data against the MAC’s top teams. Through 19 games, the numbers suggest Bowling Green’s defense has been just OK. The Falcons are allowing opponents to shoot 34.5 percent from the 3-point line, which ranks 256th nationally. Effective field-goal percentage is better, which, at 49 percent, is middle of the pack at 172nd, and defensive efficiency (per KenPom.com) is 104, which ranks 227th.
Their free-throw rate — free-attempts divided by field goals — is BG’s single biggest concern. Their free-throw rate is 11 percent lower than their opponents’ rate against them. Even though the Falcons are pretty good at shooting free throws as a team (74.2 percent), they’re not shooting nearly enough of them.
In an elimination setting, allowing a rash of 3-pointers or losing free-throw margin by 10 or 12 attempts can absolutely end a team’s year. There’s still time, but the Falcons have to improve in these areas to win three consecutive games in the MAC tournament.
One bold prediction: BG will go on a winning streak of three-plus games due to 3-point shooting
Dylan Frye (30 percent) and Justin Turner (34.6 percent) are shooting under their averages from last year. Given the caliber of both players — they’re two of the top guards in the league — this slump likely won’t stretch all season.
A return to averages means a hot streak is on the horizon, and with two players already averaging a combined 31.6 points during the drought, that should spell good things for BG.
First Published January 22, 2020, 10:57 p.m.
