BOWLING GREEN — Saturday’s Battle of I-75 was an uphill climb for Bowling Green State University before it set foot onto the floor for the opening tip.
Playing short-handed, the Falcons, in coach Michael Huger’s words, “ran out of gas” in a 91-78 defeat to archrival Toledo at the Stroh Center. The defeat brought the Falcons back to the .500 mark at 8-8, and their 1-4 Mid-American Conference record sits them in 11th of 12 in the league, only ahead of 4-12, 0-5 Western Michigan.
The Falcons are officially past the halfway mark of their schedule, and Tuesday’s game at Northern Illinois (5-8, 2-1 MAC) is the third in a row against the top three teams in the MAC standings, coincidentally in sequential order (Ohio, 4-0 in MAC play; Toledo, 5-1 in MAC play).
With the team wavering, is it time to panic? Let’s assess the current state of BGSU men’s basketball at the midpoint.
Playing down
BGSU played without six players, including two starters, against the Rockets on Saturday. Kaden Metheny missed his second straight game with ongoing injury issues, and No. 2 scorer Joe Reece was not in the lineup. Reece was injured on a dunk attempt on Tuesday against Ohio, but returned to play in that game.
Thursday’s practice and subsequent in-person media availability were canceled, and speculation rose regarding potential coronavirus issues within the Falcons’ program. Jackson Watson and Caleb Fields were in street clothes on the end of the Falcons’ bench alongside Metheny on Saturday, as they have been dealing with known injury issues, but Reece, Matiss Kulackovskis, and Josiah Fulcher were not in the building for the game.
Despite this speculation, Huger had no thoughts of trying to get his team out of its situation prior to Saturday’s game. The Falcons valiantly tackled Toledo head-on with what it had.
“You could always tweak the system and do what you need to do,” Huger said. “I felt we had enough guys to play. This is why we built this team, to be able to go out and compete. I thought we did a really good job. We just didn’t have enough to sustain, and that’s the difference in what [the game] was. I thought we did a great job of competing.”
Two starters and two key bench contributors in Kulackovskis and Fulcher being off the floor against the best starting five in the MAC that Toledo has immediately put BGSU at a disadvantage. The Falcons sorely missed Reece (11.7 points, 6.1 rebounds per game) and Kulackovskis and were out-rebounded 38-31 overall and 29-20 on the defensive ends.
They missed Metheny and Fulcher defensively at the guard position. Toledo’s Ryan Rollins finished two rebounds shy of a triple-double, and the Rockets scored 18 fast-break points to BGSU’s seven.
Throughout the season, Huger has had to adjust to absences. Only Daeqwon Plowden and Trey Diggs have started all 16 games, and Brenton Mills and Gabe O’Neal are the only others who have played in all 16. Reece had started in all 15 games leading up to Saturday, and Metheny has started all 10 of the games he has played in.
Bench mob
Huger is prone to go deep into his lineup. According to KenPom.com, BGSU’s bench plays 44.5 percent of its total minutes, which is tied for fifth most in the NCAA. BGSU has utilized six different sets of starting lineups this season. The team is 4-2 when it starts the combination of Samari Curtis, Plowden, Diggs, Reece, and Metheny, and they are 4-6 with any other combination in its lineup.
Chandler Turner is one of the most productive and efficient bench pieces in the NCAA. He is 38th in the nation with an offensive rating — or points produced per 100 possessions — of 129.6. Resulting in that is a 52 percent shooting rate, including a 56.8 percent clip on 2-pointers.
Myron Gordon (107.9 offensive rating) is considered to be a major contributor with a 24.8 percent usage rate on possessions, despite starting just five games. In MAC games, Gordon’s usage rate has jumped to 31.9 percent.
Against Toledo, Gordon scored 14 points on 6 of 14 shooting, and Turner had 11 points on 4-of-8 shooting off the bench. Isaac Elsasser and Cam Young combined for 11 points on 5-of-8 shooting.
“We all got to have a ‘next guy up’ mentality,” Diggs said. “One person goes down, you got to be ready, no matter what. Isaac Elsasser came in and hasn’t played in the MAC yet, and he came in and gave us great minutes, and that’s just how it has to be no matter who goes down. Next guy up.
“People stepped up. People who haven’t played a lot came in and gave us good minutes. Cam Young and Isaac Elsasser came in and gave us great minutes.”
Fulcher has improved in nearly every facet in his second season out of Lima Senior. Despite a slight decrease in minutes, his 111.8 offensive rating is a drastic improvement from 94.4 one season ago. He is being used less frequently, but he has cashed in on the opportunities afforded.
Fulcher has a true shooting percentage of 52.2 percent compared to last season’s 48.4 percent, and he already has made one fewer free throw this season (11-for-13) than he made all of last season (12-for-27).
Statistically speaking
Bowling Green has posted a conference-best 83.4 points per game this season. Despite the 1-4 record, BGSU is scoring 82.2 points against MAC opponents, which still leads the conference.
The team’s offense isn’t the issue. The perimeter defense is.
BGSU is 10th in the MAC with 77.2 points per game allowed, and against MAC-exclusive foes, that ranking jumps to last with 87.8 points allowed. Their overall scoring margin is a plus-6.3, but against MAC opponents, that drops to minus-5.6, or an 11.9-points per game swing. Opponents average 9.0 made 3-pointers per game against BGSU, which is second-most in the conference to Miami’s 9.8.
Ironically, BGSU’s lone MAC win so far was against Miami. In that game, the RedHawks nearly made as many 3-pointers (15) as BGSU attempted (19). The Falcons made seven 3s in the 87-83 overtime win at the Stroh Center.
The Falcons are still a strong team in the paint, with a MAC-best 23 blocked shots and 4.6 per game in league games.
They are one of the best rebounding teams in the NCAA, but their production has dipped slightly against MAC foes. BGSU is ninth in the nation in total rebounds per game with 41.69, but MAC rivals Buffalo and Toledo creep behind with 41.67 and 41.06, respectively. Against MAC opponents, BGSU’s rebounding numbers have dropped to 36.2 per game, and they are minus-4.4 per game in margin.
The verdict
KenPom gave the Rockets a 62 percent chance of victory, and ESPN’s College Basketball Power index held the Falcons a bit closer, with the Rockets having a 54 percent chance entering Saturday.
Health and availability, or the lack thereof, are certainly glaring factors in BGSU’s season to date, and missing six players from a lineup against one of the best teams in the conference is no easy feat for any team to overcome.
The good news for the Falcons is, after Tuesday’s game against Northern Illinois, they face Akron (9-5, 2-2 MAC) at home, Western Michigan on the road, and Eastern Michigan (7-8, 2-2) at home, which are all winnable games if the team can get healthy.
“The games come too fast for us to worry about this one,” Huger said. “Northern Illinois can kill us about what just happened. We got to go up to Northern Illinois, we got to regroup. Hopefully we’ll be back at full strength, and if we are, then we’ll go back and compete. If we’re not, then we’ll go with the guys that are able to compete.”
The Falcons played Ohio closer than the 85-78 final score indicated on Tuesday, when Reece, Fulcher, and Kulackovskis were in the lineup. Gaining each of those three plus the eventual return of Metheny will add more depth into the lineup that has hung relatively well with the league’s cream of the crop.
Is it time to panic? The short answer is: No.
First Published January 16, 2022, 11:11 p.m.
