BOWLING GREEN — It’s almost time.
Bowling Green has closed the book on 2021 for good, relegating last year’s highs (Minnesota) and lows (a four-game October losing streak) to the history books. In a week, the Falcons will be in sunny California, and for better or for worse all will be made new.
Let’s take a look at the road ahead for Bowling Green as it tries to reach a bowl game for the first time since 2015.
Sept. 3: at UCLA
So much for a soft landing. The Falcons dive headfirst into the 2022 slate by becoming the first MAC team in the FBS era to play in the Rose Bowl. Chip Kelly’s Bruins are perpetually a hard team to read — they got a signature win over LSU last year, lost to Fresno State, and then blew out Colorado, USC, and California in succession to close 2021. After being one of college football’s most talked-about programs this offseason for its move to the Big Ten, look for UCLA to live up to its pedigree on the field to start the year.
■ Winner: UCLA
Sept. 10: Eastern Kentucky
The Colonels weren’t awful by any stretch in 2021. They went 7-4, including a midseason five-game winning streak, after early-season losses to Louisville and Indiana State. They’re also experienced, with a four-year quarterback in Parker McKinney. It won’t be enough for Eastern Kentucky to topple Bowling Green in a matchup of programs with similar postseason droughts (the Colonels haven’t reached the FCS playoffs since 2014).
■ Winner: Bowling Green
Sept. 17: Marshall
The Falcons, MAC lifers, start their season with a team that will change conferences in two years, a team that has undergone two conference changes in two years, and a team changing conferences this year. Whew. The Thundering Herd are a good team, but have numerous factors working against them: the Sun Belt transition will be tough, they visit Notre Dame before Bowling Green, and star running back Rasheen Ali is out for the foreseeable future. This could be a huge momentum boost for the Falcons with an eye toward MAC play.
■ Winner: Bowling Green
Sept. 24: at Mississippi State
Bad news for Bowling Green: The Falcons have to play Mississippi State in Starkville. Good news for Bowling Green: The Falcons represent Leg 4 of a brutal eight-week opening slog in which the Bulldogs face Memphis, Arizona (in Tucson), LSU (in Baton Rouge at night), Bowling Green, Texas A&M, Arkansas, Kentucky (in Lexington), and Alabama (in Tuscaloosa). The trap game potential is off the charts, especially with Mike Leach steering the ship. Look for a close game in which Will Rogers and Mississippi State pull out a win in the final quarter.
■ Winner: Mississippi State
Oct. 1: at Akron
Speaking of both Mississippi State and treacherous September schedules, the Zips and their new head man – former Bulldogs coach Joe Moorhead – get this three-game doozy to close the season’s first month: Michigan State (in East Lansing), Tennessee (in Knoxville), and Liberty (in Lynchburg). Akron is the only team in the division truly starting over, and figures to have a long climb back from a 2-10 abyss in 2021. If the Falcons are to blow out any FBS team in 2022, the road-weary Zips stand as the most compelling candidate.
■ Winner: Bowling Green
Oct. 8: Buffalo
The Bulls were the victim of Bowling Green’s second-strangest win of 2021, a 56-44 win during which Falcons coach Scot Loeffler was ejected in the third quarter after incurring two unsportsmanlike conduct fouls. A second straight bizarro Buffalo-Bowling Green game seems highly unlikely — a development that would favor the Bulls, who should be improved after losing several close games last season. Buffalo boasts a rock-solid defensive front led by lineman Daymond Williams and linebacker James Patterson, a toxic combination for an offensive line that struggled a year ago.
■ Winner: Buffalo
Oct. 15: Miami (Ohio)
This is a tough call and a game that something as trivial as home-field advantage could easily swing. The Redhawks’ Brett Gabbert threw 26 touchdown passes across 10 games in 2021, and is widely considered the conference’s best returning quarterback. What separates Miami, however, is its offensive line, statistically one of the best in the nation a season ago. The Redhawks will be well-equipped to neutralize a Falcons’ area of strength — their defensive front.
■ Winner: Miami
Oct. 22: at Central Michigan
Conference road trip No. 2 — Bowling Green’s last Saturday game — brings the Falcons to Mount Pleasant for a crossover game. It’s the two teams’ first meeting in three calendar years; the Chippewas topped the Falcons 38-20 in 2019 when both Central Michigan coach Jim McElwain and Loeffler were rookie head coaches. The Chippewas lost a ton of talent on both sides of the ball, but have a competent quarterback in Daniel Richardson and just enough firepower to edge out Bowling Green.
■ Winner: Central Michigan
Nov. 2: Western Michigan
This could be a key game for Loeffler if 2022 unfolds in a similar fashion to 2021 for the Falcons. The Broncos should be gettable a year after upsetting Pittsburgh, with the terrific tandem of quarterback Kaleb Eleby and wide receiver Skyy Moore gone. A Wednesday night home win over Western Michigan will serve as a nice balm after a brutal October stretch.
■ Winner: Bowling Green
Nov. 9: Kent State
The Golden Flashes’ offense simply overwhelmed teams in 2021, scoring 30 points or more in nine of Kent State’s 14 games. That list of teams, believe it or not, did not include Bowling Green, which “held” the Golden Flashes to 27 points in a 27-20 loss. Can the Falcons keep Sean Lewis’s high-powered offense in check for a second straight year? It’s a tall ask, even with quarterback Dustin Crum having moved on.
■ Winner: Kent State
Nov. 15: at Toledo
Here it is: The Big One. Some years, as in 2019 when Bowling Green shocked the Rockets 20-7, you can throw the record book out the window in the Battle of I-75. Some years, as in 2020 and 2021 when Toledo dismantled the Falcons, you can keep it out and open. Dequan Finn returns for a Rockets team that will rank among the MAC favorites and seems bound for improvement after losing a spate of close games last year. Please turn your record book to Page 2022…
■ Winner: Toledo
Nov. 22: at Ohio
After the season reaches an emotional crescendo, one final road game looms against the Bobcats in Year 2 under coach Tim Albin. The usually steady Bobcats hit a major speed bump in 2021, dropping to 3-9 and losing at home to Duquesne. Like Toledo, though, Ohio lost multiple close games, including three in a row by seven points or fewer in a particularly grueling midseason stretch. Kurtis Rourke and Co. will be better this season — but not good enough to deny Bowling Green a fifth win, and a one-game improvement from 2021.
■ Winner: Bowling Green
First Published August 26, 2022, 11:39 a.m.
