BOWLING GREEN — A moment years in the making has finally arrived for Bowling Green State University’s football team.
The last thing the Falcons want to do is squander a golden opportunity to qualify for the Mid-American Conference championship game.
“I think it’s so much excitement,” said BGSU senior wide receiver Malcolm Johnson, Jr., who quickly embraced the program’s shifting culture when he transferred from Auburn earlier this year. “We’ve been working so hard through fall camp, through summer workouts.
Matchup: Miami, Ohio (7-4, 6-1 MAC) at Bowling Green (7-4, 6-1).
When: Friday, noon
TV: ESPNU
Line: Bowling Green by 3
Follow along: Updates and analysis will be published throughout the game at toledoblade.com.
“This season, there’s been a lot of emotions, so just knowing that we have an opportunity to do something special for BG culture, BG history, for the fans here, for each other, is amazing.”
BGSU (7-4, 6-1 MAC) will host Miami (7-4, 6-1) in Friday’s regular season finale, with the winner advancing to the MAC title game on Dec. 7 in Detroit. If BGSU loses, there is still a path to Ford Field, but the Falcons would need some help from Ohio (8-3, 6-1) and Buffalo (7-4, 5-2), who are still in the MAC title game picture.
The Falcons and RedHawks are the two hottest teams in the MAC. BGSU has won five straight games by an average score of 32 to 14.2 — and has wins in six of its past seven contests — while Miami has collected six consecutive victories by an average score of 32.5 to 13.
BGSU’s four losses have been by a combined 26 points, and three of Miami’s four losses in its first five games were by 11 points or fewer.
Both teams have been clicking since their close early-season losses that included multiple power conference opponents.
“We’ve got a ton of respect for [Miami coach] Chuck [Martin], ton of respect for how they play. Reminds me of playing Iowa back when I was in the Big Ten,” sixth-year BGSU coach Scot Loeffler said. “They do what they do, and they do it really, really well.
“So we’re going to have to bring our ‘A’ game. You’re going to see two football teams that are really good compete, and it’s going to be fun to watch.”
When BGSU has the ball
A lot of what BGSU wants to do could depend on the availability of star tight end Harold Fannin, Jr. Loeffler said on Monday that Fannin will likely be a game-time decision for Friday due to an undisclosed injury he sustained in the third quarter of Saturday’s win at Ball State.
Sixth-year senior quarterback Connor Bazelak leads the MAC and ranks 16th nationally with a 67.6 completion percentage. He has thrown for 2,453 yards, 15 touchdowns, and just four interceptions (none in MAC games), and for his career that includes three seasons at Missouri and one at Indiana, he has compiled 11,759 passing yards and 63 touchdowns in 56 games.
BGSU has been effective on the ground in a variety of ways with Terion Stewart (151 carries, 856 yards, six touchdowns), Jaison Patterson (90, 397, four), Jamal Johnson (20, 138, one), and Rahkeem Smith (18, 119, three). Smith had three total touchdowns, including two receiving, against Ball State.
BGSU ranks second in the MAC in scoring offense (28.1 points per game) and fourth in total offense (378.8 yards per game). Miami has the top-ranked scoring defense (17.8 ppg) and third-ranked total defense (313.6 ypg).
When Miami has the ball
After scoring just 25 combined points in losses to Northwestern, Cincinnati, and Notre Dame to start the season, Miami has scored at least 20 points in every game since. The RedHawks are averaging 30.7 points and 393 yards per outing in MAC games.
Similar to BGSU, Miami has a productive veteran signal caller as sixth-year starting quarterback Brett Gabbert has thrown for 2,355 yards, 18 touchdowns, and eight interceptions. For his career, he has 10,248 passing yards and 77 touchdowns in 50 games. Reggie Virgil (33 catches, 705 yards, eight touchdowns) and Javon Tracy (47, 669, six) have been his top targets, while Keyon Mozee (141 carries, 937 yards, three touchdowns) has made an impact in the backfield.
Miami ranks in the middle of the MAC in passing (225.3 yards per game) and rushing (136.2), while BGSU ranks first in the league and 10th in the FBS in passing defense (174.8). The Falcons allow 152.5 rushing yards per contest, but have given up just 138 total the past two games.
BGSU has held each of their past three opponents to 13 points and ranks fourth in the MAC in scoring defense (19.5 points per game).
Special teams
Since taking over kicking duties when Jackson Kleather went down with an injury, BGSU’s Zach Long has been solid in converting 11 of 14 field goals and all 17 of his PATs in the past six games. He also has 36 touchbacks on 62 kickoffs.
Miami has made and attempted more field goals than any other team in the MAC this season. The RedHawks are 23 of 27, with Dom Dzioban converting 22 of 26 kicks. His 2.0 field goals per game rank third in the FBS.
BGSU will win if…
Protecting the ball has been a strength for most of the season for BGSU, and the Falcons will need to continue that against a Miami squad that ranks tied for first in the MAC and tied for 34th in the country with 18 turnovers forced (10 interceptions, eight fumble recoveries). Getting a big play from their defense or special teams to set up an easy score could go a long way for the Falcons as well.
Miami will win if…
If the RedHawks’ defense dominates like it has been and consistently puts pressure on Bazelak, Miami has a solid chance of coming out on top. In BGSU’s last loss, a 17-7 defeat at home to Northern Illinois on Oct. 12, the Falcons allowed a season-high six sacks and had a season-worst 205 total yards. Slowing down BGSU’s run game on what will be a cold afternoon will be key, as well.
First Published November 26, 2024, 5:57 p.m.
