As Bowling Green coach Michael Huger said Friday, you can take everything that happened the past 18 games in the Mid-American Conference and throw it out the window.
It's tournament time, and in this one-bid league, only the team that plays its best basketball this week will be rewarded.
The MAC tournament starts with the first round on Monday, followed by the three-game race in Cleveland that begins Thursday.
The contenders
1. Akron
2. Bowling Green
3. Ball State
4. Northern Illinois
5. Buffalo
Under the MAC's current format, in which the top four teams receive byes to the quarterfinals, teams that have to play in the first round almost never make the championship game. The bye is hugely important in the MAC.
Akron is the statistical darling of the conference, by far the highest-rated team in NET ranking, KenPom, RPI, and Sagarin. The Zips are efficient on both sides of the court, they can hang 80 points on anyone in the league, and they have the likely player of the year in Loren Cristian Jackson.
Bowling Green was in the No. 1 seed conversation along with Akron. The Falcons beat the Zips 78-60 on Feb. 25, but then followed with their worst stretch of the year, a three-game losing streak to end the regular season.
The Falcons' MAC point differential (minus-20) suggests they're not as good as their 12-6 record, but they're the deepest team in the conference, plus they have veteran guards who have been here before and possess a penchant for winning tight games. They'll be a tough out.
NIU and Ball State are both rugged defensive teams, albeit with different styles. Ball State tends to live and die with the 3 and NIU doesn't have much secondary scoring behind stud guard Eugene German, but you don't have to win pretty in March — and both defenses will keep them around.
Although the bye is valuable, there are exceptions to every rule, and Buffalo certainly could be one of them.
The Bulls were a bit unlucky to miss out on the bye at 11-7 in the MAC, but they're going to be a problem for anyone. They're fast, they're tough, and their best players are battle-tested and ready for this environment.
Kent State won the MAC as the No. 6 seed three years ago, and Buffalo will have a case to win it all despite playing in the first round Monday.
The darkhorses
No. 6 Kent State
No. 7 Toledo
No. 8 Ohio
These are the teams that can beat anybody in the one-game pressure cooker that is the league tournament, but all have a flaw that will make winning four games in six days a tough sell. Toledo and Ohio are similar: Both played well in the second half of the league schedule, both have a strong group of top-three players, and both could blow one side of the bracket wide open — yet neither has the depth teams need with lots of games in a short time period.
Kent State has the offensive punch to win the MAC — they shoot almost 53 percent inside the arc — but they're wildly inconsistent and often careless with the ball. The Golden Flashes been the hardest team in the conference to judge.
The disrupters
No. 9 Central Michigan
No. 11 Eastern Michigan
In a one-game setting, both CMU and EMU can be an issue, even though they're polar opposites. CMU started well and cratered, losing nine of its last 10. EMU started 0-7 and went 6-5 the rest of the way.
The Chippewas play faster than most teams in the country, but are simultaneously one of the worst defenses in the country; EMU's 2-3 zone is a nightmare to play, but the Eagles are in the running for the worst 3-point shooting team in Division I basketball.
Neither will win the MAC, but both either or both could make it to Cleveland.
The longshots
No. 10 Western Michigan
No. 12 Miami
The records don't always tell the story, but in these two cases, they did. Both struggle defensively, and neither has the overall shooting or athleticism on offense to make up for it. Miami and WMU both will start the tournament in difficult road environments, and the odds are high that their tournament runs will be short.
Storylines to watch
1. Quarterfinal revenge: Nothing gets the blood flowing like spoiling something for a rival, especially when said rival is good, and there are two potential chances in the quarterfinal round. Toledo would earn a third crack at rival Bowling Green — which won the two regular-season meetings — with a victory against CMU in the first round.
And in the always dangerous first game of the day Thursday, Akron would play Ohio if the Bobcats advance Monday. Zips coach John Groce won two MAC titles at Ohio, defeating Akron in the league title game both times.
2. BG’s best chance in a while: The last time Bowling Green played in the NCAA tournament, the Super Bowl was two years old and the MAC tournament wouldn’t exist for another 12 years. The Falcons have waited 52 years, but have their most complete team since the early 2000s and played in the MAC title game last season.
Since the very beginning of the year, this season has been NCAA tournament-or-bust for BG.
3. Dangerous first-rounders: A team seeded sixth or lower almost always pulls a major upset during the MAC tournament, and this year features plenty of candidates. Someone unexpected will make a run — it’s just a matter of figuring out which bye-less team will spoil a party or two.
First Published March 8, 2020, 2:00 p.m.
