Another week, another opportunity for redemption.
And we’re not just talking about Toledo’s trip to Northern Illinois.
As we work to get our college football picks train back on track, here’s our look ahead at Week 6:
Toledo (3-2) at Northern Illinois (1-4), 3:30 p.m., Saturday, ESPN+
■ Line: Toledo by 5½
On paper, the Rockets should beat Northern Illinois. The Huskies are 77th nationally in total offense and could be without starting quarterback Rocky Lombardi for the third straight week. And they’re a mess defensively, allowing an average of 436.8 yards per game.
But, alas, games aren’t decided on paper.
This one will be decided on your TVs and computer screens, and in Dekalb, Ill., where the Rockets haven’t won in a non-pandemic season since 2006.
More than anything, this matchup of MAC West contenders will be a test of Toledo’s mental strength.
How many times in recent years have we seen the Rockets enjoy a big win, only to read their proverbial press clippings and get clipped the next week? Can Toledo show the consistency it has lacked in recent years? It will have to show us.
■ Pick: Northern Illinois 24, Toledo 23
Buffalo (2-3) at Bowling Green (2-3), noon, Saturday, ESPN+
■ Line: Buffalo by 2
If Bowling Green has serious designs on a bowl game — and what are we waiting for? — it better win this one. But that’ll be easier said than done. Buffalo has looked as good the past three weeks as it did awful the first two weeks, throwing a scare into unbeaten Coastal Carolina and defeating Eastern Michigan and MAC East favorite Miami.
■ Pick: Buffalo 31, Bowling Green 24
No. 3 Ohio State (5-0) at Michigan State (2-3), 4 p.m., Saturday, ABC
■ Line: Ohio State by 27
The Spartans of yore might have been a thorn in the Buckeyes’ side, but the Spartans of Payton Thorne (and company) are just plain overmatched. Even a four-touchdown spread feels light, considering Ohio State has won the schools’ last five meetings by an average of 36 points, and MSU couldn’t stop a tortoise in an alley, let alone the most dangerous offense in the country.
■ Pick: Ohio State 55, Michigan State 14
No. 4 Michigan (5-0) at Indiana (3-2), noon, Saturday, Fox
■ Line: Michigan by 23
I’m sure I’ll regret it, but with the Hoosiers coming off unsightly road losses to Cincinnati and Nebraska the past two weeks, here’s betting a circle-the-wagons effort prevents the Michigan cover.
■ Pick: Michigan 35, Indiana 14
No. 17 TCU (4-0) at No. 19 Kansas (5-0), noon, Saturday, FS1
■ Line: TCU by 6½
Turns out, what was once billed as the game of the year — Texas A&M-Alabama — is just one of the games of the week. The biggest game Saturday? This delightfully out-of-nowhere battle of unbeatens featuring two of the country’s most exciting quarterbacks: TCU’s Max Duggan and Kansas’ Jalon Daniels.
■ Pick: TCU 27, Kansas 24
Texas A&M (3-2) at No. 1 Alabama (5-0), 8 p.m., Saturday, CBS
■ Line: Alabama by 23½
Jimbo Fisher might talk a big game in the offseason, but the $95 million man sure doesn’t coach one. Even with Alabama quarterback Bryce Young’s status uncertain, Nick Saban will put his old assistant squarely back in his place.
■ Pick: Alabama 44, Texas A&M 17
First Published October 7, 2022, 2:08 p.m.
