For college basketball fans, the annual release of Ken Pomeroy’s preseason rankings is a sure sign that the season is around the corner.
Pomeroy’s initial ratings were released Sunday, and they projected Toledo to finish first in the Mid-American Conference and Bowling Green to finish in a tie for ninth. The ratings — which combine analysis of returning players, new players, schedule, and other factors — tabbed the Rockets to win the MAC by two games over Akron and Kent State.
Here is where the conference’s 12 teams fell in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency pecking order.
86. Toledo
110. Akron
123. Kent State
181. Buffalo
205. Ohio
230. Ball State
262. Miami
268. Western Michigan
276. Bowling Green
284. Northern Illinois
303. Central Michigan
311. Eastern Michigan
Toledo is projected to sweep the Falcons this year, winning at home on Jan. 28 and on the road on Feb. 18.
Toledo
KenPom predicts that Toledo will finish 21-7 overall and 15-3 in the conference, a mark good enough to capture the league title.
The Rockets’ three most difficult matchups by win probability are a Nov. 11 game against UAB in Philadelphia (43 percent), a Dec. 20 trip to Vermont (43 percent), and a Dec. 5 road game against George Mason (45 percent).
In the MAC, Toledo’s toughest tests will come at Akron on Feb. 7 (46 percent), at Kent State on Jan. 10 (51 percent), and at Buffalo on Jan. 20 (67 percent).
Efficiency-wise, the Rockets rank first in the MAC and 52nd in the country offensively, and second in the MAC and 132nd in the country defensively.
Bowling Green
Bowling Green is projected by KenPom to go 13-18 overall and 7-11 in the MAC, tied with Northern Illinois for ninth in the league.
The Falcons’ three hardest matchups by win probability are a Nov. 22 trip to Notre Dame (2 percent), a Jan. 28 visit to Toledo (6 percent), and road games against St. Bonaventure and Kent State on Nov. 19 and Feb. 7 (both 11 percent).
The Falcons’ adjusted offensive efficiency figure ranks eighth in the conference and 218th in the nation, and their defensive efficiency ranks 10th in the conference and 325th in the nation.
First Published October 17, 2022, 2:24 p.m.
