Here are breakdowns for the Toledo teams and Bowling Green women’s team ahead of the Mid-American Conference tournament this week in Cleveland.
The women’s teams begin tournament play Wednesday, followed by the Toledo men’s first-round game Thursday.
TOLEDO MEN
■ Record: 25-6 (16-2 MAC)
■ Seed, finish: No. 1 seed, outright champions
■ Key stat: The Rockets are elite offensively, ranking No. 1 in the country in offensive efficiency with a robust 1.179 points per possession. Gonzaga is second and Houston is third. According to KenPom, Toledo ranks eighth nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, second in 3-point percentage (40.7), fourth in effective field goal percentage (56.5), seventh in turnover percentage (13.7), and 17th in free throw percentage (77.6). The Rockets are No. 1 in the MAC in seven offensive categories. And the number that is just as important as all of the offensive numbers — maybe even more so — is five. That’s where UT ranks defensively in the MAC. A month ago, the Rockets were near the bottom.
■ Key player: RayJ Dennis. The best player in the MAC is the most valuable player Tod Kowalczyk has had in perhaps his entire tenure at Toledo. The point guard is a scorer, facilitator, and overall offensive maestro. His feel for the game is unparalleled, as he continually makes the right decision at the right moment. Dennis averages 19.4 points, 4.4 assists, 5.9 rebounds, 1.5 steals, less than two turnovers, and shoots nearly 50 percent from the field. He ranks fifth nationally in offensive rating, according to KenPom. Purdue’s Zach Edey, the presumptive national player of the year, is No. 1.
■ Keep an eye on: Dante Maddox, Jr. JT Shumate and Setric Millner, Jr., have been integral pieces on all three MAC title teams, but the emergence of Maddox is an added dimension to Toledo’s offense. The Cal State Fullerton transfer is averaging 13 points during UT’s 15-game winning streak. He’s a 50.5 percent shooter and shoots 46.3 percent from 3. In 30 minutes per game, Maddox only turns it over 1.4 times. If the Rockets need a big shot in the second half, Maddox is the biggest threat.
■ They will win the tournament if...: They don’t lay an egg. With Toledo’s season-long offensive output and the locked-in defense from recent weeks, losing a close game isn’t likely. Dennis will make the plays needed to win, as will others. But if there’s a trilogy to the past two seasons, when the Rockets no-showed against Ohio in 2021 and Akron in 2022, they can easily lose. Toledo is the best team, and it's peaking at the right time. All it has to do is show up and play well, and the automatic bid to the NCAA tournament should be theirs.
■ Fun fact: Three different Toledo players have scored 30 points in a game this season — Dennis, Shumate, and Millner. It’s just another example of the depth of offense UT has. Maddox has proven to be a legitimate scoring threat as well. Is it possible for all of them to be off on the same night? Another feather in Toledo’s cap is its capacity to hold leads. The Rockets have led 23 times this season with five minutes to play. They have won all 23 games. — Kyle Rowland
TOLEDO WOMEN
■ Record: 25-4 (16-2 MAC)
■ Seed, finish: No. 1 seed, outright champions
■ Key stat: The Rockets are a disciplined team, ranking 22nd nationally in assist-to-turnover ratio. Only 13 teams have turned it over less than Toledo this season. Guard play is one aspect that defines the month of March. Another element that’s heightened during pressure moments and close games is free throwing shooting, and UT ranks seventh (79.0 percent). Keeping turnovers at a minimum, converting free throws, and only allowing opponents to score 62.3 points per game is how a team wins 25 games and the outright MAC championship.
■ Key player: Sophia Wiard. Quinesha Lockett is the best player in the MAC, but Wiard is more valuable to the Rockets. The point guard is almost a player-coach on the court, directing the offense and defense at a high level. During UT’s 13-game winning streak, Wiard is averaging nearly 1.5 steals per game. Whether it’s a timely basket, a pass to Lockett, a steal, or a rebound, more often than not, Wiard is the player who makes the plays when they’re needed. Her presence on the court amid tense situations is almost reassuring and calming for the Rockets.
■ Keep an eye on: Sammi Mikonowicz. The Rossford native has one of the best shooting percentages and she’s one of the team’s top 3-point shooters. Mikonowicz is a rebounding machine, averaging 7.7 per game, and her toughness is on display every game. She was an imposing figure in comebacks against Kent State and Bowling Green.
■ They will win the tournament if...: The offense picks up the pace. Toledo is a tremendous defensive team — and the Rockets rank 42nd in scoring offense (73.8 points per game) — but they’ve labored to 64 and 62 points in their past two games. Yes, the opponents were good. But the performances in Savage Arena are red flags. UT’s defense is a dependable unit. If the scoring follows in Cleveland, the Rockets won’t have to worry about securing an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament.
■ Fun fact: In the past 42 games against MAC opponents, Toledo is 38-4. Of course, one of those losses came last season to Ball State in the conference tournament, preventing UT from advancing to the NCAA tournament. It’s a glimpse into how dominant the Rockets have been over the past two seasons and why many believe they will return home from Cleveland with another trophy. — Kyle Rowland
BOWLING GREEN WOMEN
■ Record: 25-5 (14-4 Mid-American Conference)
■ Seed, finish: No. 2 seed, runner-up
■ Key stat: BGSU has dominated the turnover battle all season. The Falcons’ turnover margin of 9.37 ranks second in the country behind only Niagara (9.61), and their assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.36 is eighth. BGSU forces 21.9 turnovers per game (sixth in NCAA), commits just 12.5 (17th), and scores 23.4 points off turnovers per contest.
■ Key player: Allison Day has helped take the Falcons to another level this season with her ability to score in the post. The 6-foot-1 senior forward, who transferred from Loyola University Chicago after scoring more than 1,100 points in four years for the Ramblers, is averaging 12.9 points per game. Day is shooting 54.6 percent from the floor, which leads the MAC and is 34th nationally.
■ Keep an eye on: BGSU’s health. The fact the Falcons put together one of their best regular seasons in program history with several key players being injured or playing through pain shows their depth — and how well Robyn Fralick has coached the team. Senior starting guard Morgan Sharps, BGSU’s best 3-point shooter at 39.4 percent, has missed the past 13 games with a knee injury. Junior guard Lexi Fleming, who does a little bit of everything, has played through pain in her right knee in which she tore her ACL last year. Sophomore starting guard/forward Jocelyn Tate was hobbled by a foot injury and missed a game late in the year, but appears to be better after playing in BGSU’s last two contests.
■ They will win the tournament if...: Their shooting percentage improves. It’s hard to believe a team that leads the MAC in scoring at 78.6 points per game would need to work on its shooting, but the Falcons enter the tournament in a bit of a cold spell. In its past six games (3-3 record), BGSU is shooting 37.7 percent (156 of 413) from the floor, including just 26.5 percent (35 of 132) from 3-point range. With the aggressiveness of BGSU’s defense, the Falcons would be a tough out if they’re knocking down their shots.
■ Fun fact: BGSU has been one of the most successful programs in MAC tournament history. According to BGSU athletics, the Falcons (46-27 record) have the second-highest winning percentage (.630) of any team in league tournament games. Their win total is also second among MAC teams. BGSU has the most league tournament titles (11) and will be trying to win its first since 2011. — Michael Burwell
First Published March 7, 2023, 3:49 p.m.
