If you’re an Ohio State fan looking for another reason to believe this season, I have some bad news.
I do not think the mighty Buckeyes are the best team in the country.
I also have some great news.
I do not think the mighty Buckeyes are the best team in the country.
This is my 10th season as one of the 62 voters in the Associated Press Top 25 poll, and just once has the team I voted No. 1 in the preseason gone on to win the national title.
In 2017, I decided to live a little and picked … Alabama, and, lo and behold, the beach ball I tossed out of a boat landed in the ocean. Alabama won the championship.
This year, I have Georgia atop my ballot, just ahead of Ohio State.
Will a broken clock prove right twice a century?
Easy as it might seem to pick the winner in a sport with such limited parity — maybe four teams have a real chance in a given year — probably not. (In fairness, we’re all a little Nostradamrusty after a long offseason. Since Southern California went wire to wire in 2004, the ‘17 Crimson Tide are the only preseason AP No. 1 to win the big trophy.)
Meantime, let’s print out the receipt for future amusement. Here’s my ballot for the first 2024 poll, due out Monday:
1. Georgia: Truthfully, this season feels like a case of 1A and 1B. There are the varying classes of traffic citations handed to Georgia football players and there is the battle for No. 1 between the Bulldogs and Buckeyes. You could go either way, but we’ll start with the team that might have the nation’s best quarterback (Carson Beck) and offensive line — two areas where the Buckeyes have questions.
2. Ohio State: On the other hand, the Buckeyes probably have the best assemblage of running backs … and receivers … and defensive linemen … and defensive backs. They are positively loaded, and the only thing bigger than their pile of blue chips appears the chip on their shoulder. As long as Ryan Day wins every game by at least six touchdowns, everything will be just fine.
3. Oregon: It is easy bein’ green when you’re the Ducks and 86-year-old mega-billionaire booster Phil Knight is determined to keep up with the Joneses and Buckeyes and bring his alma mater a title if it’s the last thing he does. Like Ohio State, they spent the offseason reinforcing an already elite roster with a shopping spree on Fifth Avenue — returning with a haul that included Oklahoma QB Dillon Gabriel, the active FBS passing leader (14,865 yards).
4. Texas: The real UT? With respect to Texas and Tennessee — who are busy squabbling over the designation now that the Longhorns have joined the SEC — that’s the University of Toledo, of course (at least since its name change from Toledo U in 1967). The best UT? That’s Texas, which brings back the core of last year’s playoff team, including star passer Quinn Ewers.
5. Alabama: It was fun to see Nick Saban visit Chicago Bears coach Matt Eberflus on the latest episode of Hard Knocks — Saban coached the Whitmer grad at the real UT — and probably even more fun for the rest of the SEC. Still, even without the GOAT, life has gone on in Tuscaloosa. Kalen DeBoer led Washington to the title game last year with half the talent he has at Alabama. The Crimson Tide aren’t going anywhere just yet.
6. Notre Dame: The Irish add a top QB (Duke’s Riley Leonard) and bring back nine starters from a top-five defense. If Marcus Freeman is the man for the job in South Bend, he’ll prove it in Year 3.
7. Mississippi: All aboard the Lane Train; next stop … playoffs? It’s hard to trust Lane Kiffin, but he’s got himself a hell of a roster, with the Rebels returning 16 starters from last year’s 11-win team and cleaning up in the portal. I’m hopping on.
8. Missouri: Same deal with the Tigers, who return 14 starters from an 11-win group — and have the SEC’s best schedule, avoiding Georgia, Texas, Ole Miss, and Louisiana State.
9. Penn State: Will any coach benefit from the 12-team playoff more than James Franklin? His past Nittany Lions teams would have made the field in 2016 (pre-bowl ranking: No. 5), 2017 (9), 2019 (10), 2022 (11), and last year (10). Expect another very good season, this time with a great result — Penn State’s first trip to the playoffs.
10. Michigan: Not sure if this is too high, with Jim Harbaugh beating the NCAA posse out of town and the Wolverines replacing 16 starters. Or too low, with three likely first-round picks (defensive linemen Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant, and defensive back Will Johnson) back on what should be an elite D.
Best of the rest: 11. Utah, 12. Florida State, 13. Clemson, 14. Miami, 15. Tennessee, 16. LSU, 17. Iowa, 18. Oklahoma State, 19. Oklahoma, 20. Texas A&M, 21. Kansas State, 22. Iowa State, 23. Southern Methodist, 24. Virginia Tech, 25. Wisconsin.
First Published August 9, 2024, 1:13 p.m.
