ANN ARBOR — The most notable position battle within Michigan football for this upcoming 2020 season is undoubtedly at quarterback.
But whoever ultimately wins that job could be a dark horse Heisman Trophy candidate.
CBS Sports’ Tom Fornelli took a look at potential Heisman candidates and pointed out at this time last year, hardly anyone was predicting that Louisiana State quarterback Joe Burrow would end the year as a Heisman winner. It was a similar story for Kyler Murray in 2018, Lamar Jackson in 2016, Jameis Winston in 2013, and Johnny Manziel in 2012.
The current favorites to win this year’s Heisman are Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields and Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence — but given recent years, nothing at this stage of the game is a given.
So looking at the situation at Michigan, Fornelli acknowledged plenty is still unknown about who will be starting this upcoming season.
“All we know is that Shea Patterson is gone, and Dylan McCaffrey and Joe Milton are competing to take his place,” he wrote. “Based on Heisman odds, it seems sportsbooks are putting their money on it being McCaffrey. I'm approaching this from the standpoint of the darkhorse being ‘Michigan QB,’ whether that's McCaffrey or Milton.”
Earlier this month, offensive coordinator Josh Gattis said that there was no “front-runner” in the starting quarterback battle. While McCaffrey has spent the last two years as Patterson’s backup, Gattis also said the 2019 depth chart would be irrelevant in picking a new starter.
In 2019, McCaffrey completed 10 of 20 passes for 116 yards and one touchdown, while rushing for an addition 67 yards and a score on 13 attempts — but he did miss a significant portion of the season due to a concussion he suffered in Week 4 against Wisconsin.
Milton saw action in three games and completed 3 of 7 passes for 59 yards and a touchdown, rushing for an additional score and 16 yards on the ground.
If either player is to have a chance in the Heisman battle, Fornelli writes Michigan receivers need to do a better job of catching the ball. He pointed out that Michigan’s two leading receivers, Ronnie Bell and Nico Collins, were two of the biggest culprits concerning dropped passes. Bell dropped 16.9 percent of his targets and had an on-target catch rate of 70.8 percent. Collins had a drop rate of 11.1 percent and an on-target catch rate of 68.5 percent.
“Michigan's receiving corps had a drop rate of 12.6 percent last season,” Fornelli wrote. “That ranked 121st nationally. Even worse, Michigan receivers had an on-target catch rate of 75.2 percent last year, according to Sports Info Solutions. That ranked 129th nationally, with only Buffalo being worse at 73.5 percent.
“This tells me two things. One is that Patterson was better than you thought. His on-target rate last season of 75.2 percent wasn't elite, but did rank No. 32 in the country. It was also a full 19 percent higher than his 56.2 percent completion rate. The second is that it will be hard for Michigan receivers to be worse in 2020.”
But in his analysis, Fornelli said it’s also important to consider Michigan just got through its first season installing a new offense, and this could go a long way in allowing whatever quarterback starts to make a run at the Heisman.
“Like LSU, Michigan broke in a new offense last season,” he wrote. ‘One meant to spread things out and modernize an attack that had grown a bit obsolete. Unlike LSU, Michigan's offense didn't hit the ground running, mostly because it didn't have a Joe Burrow leading the way. Odds are neither McCaffrey or Milton are Burrow, either, but heading into the second season of a new offense — one that improved in the second half of last season — I expect Michigan to be better on that side of the ball.”
First Published May 26, 2020, 5:04 p.m.
