It’s coming down to the wire.
The Toledo Mud Hens are chasing down the International League West Division title with 10 games left in the season. Through play Monday, the Nashville Sounds occupy first place of the IL West with a 5½-game lead over the Mud Hens and a five-game lead over the Columbus Clippers.
But Toledo, which won the Triple-A East Midwest Division title last year, is on a roll.
The Mud Hens have won 10 straight games, including a six-game sweep of the Indianapolis Indians last week. It’s Toledo’s longest winning streak since 1980 and has matched the franchise’s record for the longest winning streak. In that stretch, Toledo’s pitching staff has held opponents to 3.8 runs per game, while the Mud Hens lineup has averaged 7.3 runs per game.
The road to a division title is filled with obstacles. Toledo’s elimination number is five. The Mud Hens play 10 games in nine days and face the second-place team, the Columbus Clippers, for seven contests.
Here is a breakdown on how Toledo could tie or win the division outright.
How the Mud Hens could tie for the division
The Mud Hens (80-60) have little room for error as the season winds down. Here is how they could tie for the division and send the title to a tiebreaker.
■ If Nashville goes 4-5 and Toledo goes 10-0. Both teams end at 90-60
■ If Nashville goes 3-6 and Toledo goes 9-1. Both teams end at 89-61
■ If Nashville goes 2-7 and Toledo goes 8-2. Both teams end at 88-62
■ If Nashville goes 1-8 and Toledo goes 7-3. Both teams end at 87-63
■ If Nashville goes 0-9 and Toledo goes 6-4. Both teams end at 86-64
The Sounds (86-55) are 6-4 in their past 10 games and are 11-6 in September. Nashville began a six-game set with the Louisville Bats (55-86) on Monday, winning 8-6.
If the Sounds and Mud Hens tie, the league’s first tiebreaker is head-to-head record. Nashville and Toledo split their lone series this season.
The next tiebreaker is best winning percentage over a set amount of games, starting with the past 20. If the teams have the same winning percentage over 20 games, that number of games would increase until one team establishes itself with the best winning percentage across those contests.
Given Toledo’s 10-game winning streak, if the Mud Hens play well enough down the stretch to tie for the division, their chances of winning this tiebreaker (and the division) could be high.
How the Mud Hens could win the division outright
The Mud Hens need to be near spotless in order to win the title outright. Toledo can win the division if:
■ Nashville goes 3-6 and Toledo finishes 10-0. Nashville would end at 89-61, and Toledo at 90-60
■ Nashville finishes 2-7 and Toledo goes 9-1. Nashville would end at 88-62, and Toledo at 89-61
■ Nashville finishes 1-8 and Toledo goes 8-2. Nashville would end at 87-63, and Toledo at 88-62
■ Nashville finishes 0-9 and Toledo goes 7-3. Nashville would end at 86-64, and Toledo at 87-63
Toledo begins its final home series against another team in the hunt: the Columbus Clippers. The Mud Hens and Clippers begin a seven-game series, across six days, on Tuesday at Fifth Third Field.
Columbus, whose elimination number is six games, is ahead in the season series, 9-5, but Toledo won three of five at home the last time the teams met.
The Triple-A postseason begins Sept. 30 with the top division winners from the Pacific Coast League squaring off at Las Vegas Ballpark in Summerlin, Nev., in a single game. On Oct. 1, the winners of the IL divisions meet for a single game. The winners of the PCL and IL will determine the Triple-A champion on Oct. 2 in a winner-take-all contest.
First Published September 19, 2022, 7:19 p.m.
