Opening night of the college basketball season is less than a month away, as Toledo travels to Valparaiso on Nov. 9.
But much is still to be done. On Saturday, the Rockets host Hillsdale in their first exhibition game, an opportunity for coach Tod Kowalczyk to see if UT’s got the makeup to repeat as Mid-American Conference champions.
So far, he likes what he sees, with a talented point guard, veteran leadership, a major youth movement, and the deepest bench in years.
“We have high expectations,” Kowalczyk said. “We won the conference by two games last season. Will this team be better? I don’t know. I think we could be. I like to think we will be. I like where we’re at.”
Here are five questions about the 2021-22 Toledo Rockets:
1. Who will replace Marreon Jackson?
The MAC player of the year won’t be easily replaced. He averaged 18.1 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 5.9 assists last season before transferring to Arizona State. For four seasons, Toledo had a reliable point guard who could score in clutch moments. Now what?
Well, Boise State transfer RayJ Dennis might not score as much as Jackson and he probably won’t be the MAC player of the year. But Dennis, a junior, is a point guard in every sense of the position’s definition. He is a distributor and creator, someone who has a knack for getting the ball into the hands of the appropriate teammate.
“I think he’s got all the intangibles a point guard needs,” freshman forward Kooper Jacobi said. “Of course, passing, as well as seeing the floor great. He can see the floor and play defense as well as I’ve ever seen.”
Dennis, a 6-foot-2 Oswego, Ill., native, averaged 8.6 points, 3.0 rebounds, a team-best 2.9 assists, and led the Broncos with 34 steals last season. Dennis’ style of play is an ideal fit for what Kowalczyk hopes to accomplish offensively.
And he can score if needed. During his freshman season, Dennis scored all 19 of his points in the final 3 minutes, 27 seconds of regulation in an eventual 88-83 Boise State victory over Utah State. The Broncos trailed by 18 prior to Dennis’ onslaught.
“He fits really well with Ryan Rollins, and that’s really important. And I think J.T. Shumate fits really well with RayJ Dennis,” Kowalczyk said. “He’s a guy who is bigger than Marreon, stronger, and a different kind of point guard. Marreon was obviously a very good shooter. RayJ is more of a pass-first guy.”
2. Can they replicate last season’s 3-point shooting?
It won’t be easy, as Toledo’s 37.2 percent 3-point shooting rate was ranked in the top 30 nationally. Spencer Littleson, the nation’s No. 1 three-point shooter, was the catalyst. KenPom ranked Littleson as the No. 3 player in the country in offensive rating and ninth in effective field goal percentage.
J.T. Shumate (39.1 percent), Keshaun Saunders (37 percent), Ryan Rollins (32.3), and Setric Millner, Jr. (27.3) all return. Redshirt freshman Ra’Heim Moss, sophomore Jamere Hill, and true freshmen Jacobi, Elijah Wilson, E.J. Farmer should chip in.
“I don’t think we’re going to be as good of a shooting team. I don't know if that's possible when you lose the best three-point shooter in the country,” Kowalczyk said. “But I think we can be better offensively than last year’s team. I think we will distribute the ball better.
“This team has a lot of weapons that can score. We can score better off the dribble and we have more guys that can create their own shot and create shots for their teammates. As far as our three-point shooting, I do think J.T. Shumate and Seth Millner are drastically improved in that area.”
3. Which freshmen will play?
The 2021 recruiting class is one of the best of Kowalczyk’s 12 years at Toledo. Jacobi, Wilson, Farmer, and Miahi Carcoana are all going to play — and some of them could see significant minutes, beginning Nov. 9.
Jacobi is a 6-foot-6 forward who had the second-most points in his school’s history. He’s also an outstanding defender. Wilson and Farmer are both athletic guards that were prolific scorers in high school. Carcoana is a versatile 6-foot-11 center who should stretch defenses in the MAC while giving UT much-needed height on the other end of the court.
“They need to play in some games and see what it’s like,” Kowalczyk said. “I can talk to them until I’m blue in the face about how the intensity is ramped up. They need to see it for real on Saturday. But it is a freshman class we’re high on.
“Kooper Jacobi is a very good freshman. Our two wings, Elijah Wilson and E.J. Farmer, are both really talented. Mihai Carcoana is far from a finished product, but I’ve had other freshmen who’ve been very good that Mihai may be a little more productive than them as freshmen. He can play. He’s all of 6-11 and all of 260 pounds. He knows how to play, and he’s coachable. He wants to learn and he listens.”
4. Where will the rebounds come from?
Rebounding has been a problem for Toledo in the past because of smaller lineups. There’s a push and pull in basketball with an older generation still clutching to a game that required centers and the brand that’s blossomed with three-point shooting. Kowalczyk is a maestro of the latter.
Yes, there are times when it leads to being out-rebounded. Toledo’s offensive track record, however, is proof enough that it’s working.
“We were a good rebounding team last year because we had good guard rebounding,” Kowalczyk said. “Collectively, can we make up some of that ground with Marreon gone? I think we can. People think that we’re small. We’re not small. We’re maybe small at one position, but if you look at the size of our starting five, we’re not small. We have some size, we just don’t have height at the center position. That can also be an advantage.”
A.J. Edu is out until at least February because of another knee injury, taking away a significant rebounding and shot-blocking presence. But Millner (6.8 rebounds per game), Rollins (5.2), and Shumate (4.4) were three of the team’s top five rebounders last season.
“We play really hard,” Dennis said. “Even though we’re a little undersized, we have a good rebounding mindset. Kooper and J.T. really hunt rebounds. Other teams may be bigger, but we play harder and tougher.”
5. What are the realistic expectations?
We’ll get this out of the way early this season: NCAA tournament. That’s not to say it’ll be a failure if the Rockets lose in the MAC tournament. But the goal and belief throughout the season is that the 2021-22 Rockets can end the 42-year March Madness drought.
Even if Toledo doesn’t win the MAC tournament, a strong nonconference schedule is set up for an at-large bid. The Bahamas tournament, plus games against Michigan State, Richmond, and Marshall will not only have UT battle-tested for the MAC, they will be seen as positives in the eyes of the selection committee.
The Rockets have talent, depth, and plenty of offense. Despite losing two of the top players from the MAC champions, UT could still be the favorite in the conference, especially with Rollins leading the way.
“We just need to keep the same tunnel-vision mindset and go out there and win games,” Moss said. “We’re not thinking about the next game. We’re always thinking about the current game we’re preparing for.”
First Published October 19, 2021, 6:46 p.m.
