In recent weeks, with almost daily updates on his status, Ryan Rollins’ draft stock has risen faster than gas prices and the housing market.
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That’s just a sampling of the headlines about Rollins, who's projected to be taken in the first round in a USA Today mock draft released last week. The 6-foot-4, 180-pound guard is in Chicago this week for the NBA Draft Combine, an event that could solidify Rollins’ draft status or create uncertainty.
“It’s an opportunity for me to showcase my talents for almost the whole NBA, for GMs and coaching staffs,” the Toledo sophomore said. “It’s a big opportunity. I’m ready for it.”
There’s a reason 23 scouts (and one general manager) from 15 teams attended Rollins’ games last season. And that was just at Savage Arena. The press row seating charts at road games were also littered with NBA personnel.
Rollins has spent the past month training in Dallas, polishing his shooting, enhancing his playmaking, and transforming his slender frame. He wants to be NBA-ready.
“I was all-in from the beginning,” Rollins said. “Seeing my stock rise gave me even more reason and leverage to go.”
The chances of a third season with the Rockets are infinitesimal, but it’s not a breakup with UT. Head coach Tod Kowalczyk and assistant Justin Ingram will be at the combine to support Rollins. And there would be no better recruiting tool for Toledo than Rollins being splashed all over ESPN after being drafted in the first round.
“Ryan is clearly a very talented player,” Kowalczyk said. “He has great feel, unbelievable talent, and because he’s 19 years old, he oozes with potential. If he plays well at the combine, he’s going to have an unbelievable opportunity in front of him.”
Age is a contributing factor in Rollins’ recent surge, as he’s the same age as Paolo Banchero, Chet Holmgren, and most of the other freshmen one-and-dones. The Athletic’s Sam Vecenie called Rollins “one of the most polished 19-year-old scoring prospects I’ve evaluated in a while.”
Last season, the versatile Rollins shot 46.8 percent from the field, 31.1 percent from 3-point range, and 80.2 percent from the free throw line. His 18.9 points per game were 48th-best in the country. He’s lethal off the pick-and-roll with a pull-up jumper and his mid-range game is exceptional.
On the eye test alone, Rollins is a first-round pick, with a fluid almost effortless style of play. He has total control of his body and finishes through contact at a high level, connecting on 47 percent of floaters and 59 percent of shots at the rim, according to Synergy. Three-point shooting is one of the biggest knocks against Rollins, but a 57.5 percent true-shooting percentage is ample proof that he can correct his long-distance game.
“I think teams will have interest getting him in the first round, no doubt,” said Bryan Kalbrosky, an NBA writer at USA Today’s For The Win. “He just has the right blend of skills needed to succeed at the NBA level. He’s still young, still developing, has good length. You can tell he has a plus wingspan. You can tell he’s a great playmaker with a low turnover rate. He’s a monster rebounder. He’s shown that he’s a better defender than you might expect. He’s going to need to put on weight and improve his jump shot, but those are typical criticisms of a player at this point of the draft cycle. He’s definitely someone who can continue to rise on boards during the draft interview process.”
Rollins improved across the board during his sophomore season, starting with scoring as his points per game rose from 13.7 to 18.9. He improved his field goal percentage from 43.1 percent to 46.8. His free throw percentage went from 78.6 percent to 80.2. He went from 5.2 rebounds per game to 6.0, thanks to a 6-foot-9 wingspan. He increased his assists per game from 2.5 to 3.6 (6.5 assists per 100 possessions). Rollins even picked up on defense, increasing his steals from 1.1 to 1.7.
Turnovers decreased from 2.4 to 2.2, but so did Rollins’ 3-point shooting. As a freshman, he shot 32.3 percent from beyond the arc, a number that fell to 31.1 last season. Rollins was one of five sophomores to score 1,000 points over the last two seasons.
“Because of his frame and his length, and he has an unbelievable basketball feel, that tells me he’s only going to get better,” Kowalczyk said. “He’s garnered a great deal of attention, and he’s earned it.”
Rollins has drawn comparisons to guards C.J. McCollum, Fred VanVleet, Bones Hyland, and Austin Reaves for style of play, draft range, future development, and finding the right system to flourish.
McCollum, an All-American at Lehigh, was a top-10 pick who has evolved into one of the best offensive players in the NBA. VanVleet, who starred at Wichita State, went from undrafted to an All-Star and NBA champion for the Toronto Raptors. Hyland was the Atlantic-10 player of the year in 2020-21 at VCU and a breakout star at last year’s combine. He was drafted late in the first round by the Denver Nuggets and averaged 10.1 points, 2.7 rebounds, and 2.8 assists in his rookie season. Reaves, a first-team All-Big 12 selection at Oklahoma in 2020-21, was on nobody’s radar at last year's draft. The Los Angeles Lakers signed him and he blossomed into a solid role player, recording a triple-double in the season finale.
“It’s exciting,” Rollins said. “People have finally figured out about me. It’s intriguing because people have seen highlight tapes, but now they’ll get to see me in the combine. I’ve already risen through word of mouth the past month and a half.”
Not everyone is fawning over Rollins. ESPN doesn’t even list him in its two-round mock draft. The Worldwide Leader ranks Rollins as the No. 65 player available in the draft.
“Overall, Rollins looks like he’s a year away from maximizing his draft stock as there’s still room to grow with his shooting consistency, defensive intensity, and floor game,” said ESPN’s Mike Schmitz, who witnessed one of Rollins’ quietest nights of the season — five points on 2-of-10 shooting, with two rebounds, four assists, three steals, and three turnovers.
“[I] left encouraged by his talent and long-term potential,” Schmitz said. “Calm, cool, and collected on the court, his defensive intensity left much to be desired on film, both on and off the ball. But watching him battle through his offensive struggles to get defensive stops while making several smart reads showed he’s more than capable on the defensive end of the floor when motivated.”
Rollins struggled significantly against Michigan State and Dayton, by far the two best opponents Toledo played last season. He was a combined 13 of 43 from the field and 2 of 13 from 3 for 35 points, with eight rebounds, three assists, five steals, and four turnovers.
In a 72-69 loss at Richmond — Toledo blew a 19-point second-half lead — Rollins scored five points and had five turnovers. He was 7 of 19 from the field and 1 of 6 from 3 in UT’s MAC tournament loss to Akron.
“Every draft is based on potential,” Kalbrosky said. “That’s one of the biggest sells for him. There’s a reason why older players tend to not do as well in the draft. Younger guys seemingly have more potential and more upside and a development curve.”
Rollins is focused on improving his shooting and defense and becoming a better playmaker and ballhandler. He wants to show progress in areas that he already considers strengths of his game. In the NBA, Rollins wants to be a three-level scorer and catch-and-shoot more frequently.
Dallas is where he has established his pre-draft headquarters. Rollins wakes up at 8 a.m. each day, with a lifting workout at 9 a.m. At noon, he does a group basketball workout, relaxes during the afternoon, and then goes through an individual on-court workout at 9:30 p.m.
Every day is geared toward the combine and beyond.
“I have a chip on my shoulder,” Rollins said. “I’ve always been underrated and overlooked. I think I’m finally getting my due a little bit. But I’m still not where I want to be, so I’m going to keep putting the work in. I’m just going to keep my head down and work.”
First Published May 15, 2022, 9:28 p.m.
