Four games into the 2022 season, Toledo’s offense hasn’t quite hit its stride.
There have been quarters, halves, and possessions where the Rockets resembled the high-powered unit of years past. But the consistency hasn’t materialized, as the offensive line, run game, and lack of a true game-breaking wide receiver have limited UT.
“It’s just one guy off,” offensive lineman Nick Rosi said. “It could be an offensive lineman one play, it could be another position another play. Our offensive coordinator coach [Robert] Weiner said it best: It’s like a symphony, it’s not a rock band. Everything has to be in place. If one thing is out of place, everything is messed up. It’s important to realize that we’re so close. We’re going to turn the page here soon.”
Perhaps a must-win game is what will get the offense in sync.
A year ago, Toledo was in a similar situation when it traveled to Mount Pleasant. The Rockets lost in overtime, but they discovered an offensive identity in the process.
Dequan Finn started for the first time in his career and engineered a comeback from down 20-3. Toledo scored 20 points on 226 yards in the second half and averaged nearly seven yards per play in the fourth quarter.
Central Michigan, 1-3 with competitive losses to Oklahoma State, Penn State, and South Alabama, has holes in its defense, ranking 94th nationally in total defense, 116th in pass defense, 47th in rush defense, and 102nd in scoring defense.
It could be the elixir that the UT offense craves.
“We still think it’s a week-to-week process,” Toledo coach Jason Candle said. “But the magnitude of this football game is, we’re facing a team that was picked ahead of us. We’re chasing them so to speak. This one almost counts as two because you carry the tiebreaker. These conference games early on seem to mean more and more every year, because in October and November, it gets crazy.”
Bryant Koback’s announcement in January that he was leaving for the NFL was expected. What wasn’t anticipated was the Rockets’ struggles to run the football.
Finn is Toledo’s leading rusher by nearly 100 yards. The top four running backs — Jacquez Stuart, Peny Boone, Micah Kelly, and Willie Shaw III — have 405 yards and four touchdowns on 104 carries, an average of 3.8 yards per rush.
Last year, Koback averaged 6.7 yards per carry.
“If the quarterback is running for 70 yards a game rather than zero yards, then that would be 70 yards the running backs could get that they’re not getting because the quarterback is,” Candle said. “There’s give and take here. There’s a total number of yards you’re trying to accomplish. You’re trying to maintain balance offensively. You’re trying to play as evenly as possible. You’re trying to distribute the football to as many guys as you can to keep defenses off balance.
“When you can supplement the running game with the quarterback, I think that’s a different element. You have to be careful. You don’t want to put him in harm’s way. He’s done a good job of making some plays on his own. I think the running back room, like every room, is striving for consistency and trying to figure out what exactly that looks like so we can put the best plan around them to be successful. In fairness to the backs and the offensive line, the four teams we’ve played have thrown a lot of different stuff at us. It’s a different front every week. We’ve had our moments, but we’ve had moments where we haven’t been at our best either.”
There are multiple reasons why the Rockets have been stymied, including Candle’s explanation. But the offensive line’s protection issues are at the root of UT’s No. 85 total offense number.
According to Pro Football Focus, Toledo ranks 103rd in pass blocking and 77th in run blocking.
“We’ve had some injuries, but I think a lot of guys are stepping up,” Rosi said. “We have to be the tightest knit group of any team. These five guys have to think with one brain. As far as thinking with one brain and being there for each other, this is the best I’ve seen since I’ve been here. I’m really proud of this group.
“The numbers are going to show. Each week, we’re going to keep getting better. We’re going to make improvements and fix the mistakes from the previous week. This unit can build into something special.”
The first step is punching the ball into the end zone. Toledo has reached the red zone 14 times this season and only scored eight touchdowns. The Rockets rank 93rd in red zone offense, and their touchdown conversion rate is 90th. Three times they’ve come away with zero points.
In MAC games, where offenses generally control the outcome, maxing out on scoring opportunities is paramount.
“We got to take a plus-four mentality,” Candle said. “Get those extra four points instead of settling for a field goal.”
On Saturday, it doesn’t matter if it’s a dominant performance or unimpressive. If the Rockets win, the entire tenor of the season will flip.
“I think it’s crucial,” Rosi said. “These next three games are three of the top teams. The season is going to boil down to how we handle these next few weeks. It’s important, though, when coming off a win or a loss not to get too high or too low. You got to make sure you meet every challenge the same way. A win Saturday will set us off in the right direction. We need every win if we’re going to make it where we want to go.”
First Published September 28, 2022, 3:58 p.m.