For the second consecutive week, Toledo will play the biggest game of its season.
The Rockets began their Mid-American Conference schedule with a rousing homecoming victory over Central Michigan, a 60-minute demolition that offered a glimpse of what many thought UT could be this season.
Now, it's off to DeKalb, Ill., a place Toledo knows well and a site that has derailed several seasons in the past 15 years. If UT can give a repeat performance of last week's win against the Chippewas, I-75 from Toledo to Detroit could be paved in midnight blue and gold.
“You understand what this week means, not only for this team but for alumni," Northern Illinois coach Thomas Hammock said. "We're struggling right now, but the focus is to play our best game against who we consider to be our rival. That's what we're trying to do on Saturday.”
When Toledo has the ball
The Rockets had their best half of the season last week, slicing through the Central Michigan defense. UT will key on trying to start fast again at Northern Illinois.
Dequan Finn can stretch defenses thin with his legs, but he's an underrated passer, often creating big plays with his arm. And the Huskies are susceptible through the air as they rank 129th out of 131 in pass defense.
Northern Illinois is 114th in total defense, 50th in rush defense, and 118th in scoring defense. There's an avenue for Toledo to not just win, but put a pounding on the Huskies.
When Northern Illinois has the ball
Toledo's defense dealt with injuries last week, but the backups performed admirably. In the eight quarters since the Ohio State debacle, UT has looked like the defensive unit everyone expected. The next challenge is a Northern Illinois offense that ranks 77th in total offense, 95th in passing, 42nd in rushing, and 66th in scoring.
Quarterback Rocky Lombardi is reportedly out for the season with a knee injury, although there are rumors that he will attempt to play Saturday. Backup Ethan Hampton has completed 57.5 percent of his passes for 514 yards, five touchdowns, and two interceptions.
Running back Harrison Waylee (445 yards, four touchdowns) is the nation's No. 34 rusher. He had 138 yards of offense and two touchdowns against the Rockets in 2020. Last week, Waylee had 230 yards and three touchdowns on 30 carries in a loss against Ball State.
Special teams
UT kicker Thomas Cluckey is six of eight on field goals, with a long of 45 yards. Punter Jonathon Batzke was enjoying an impressive debut season until last week's disaster, which featured two blocked punts and another that was nearly blocked.
The Rockets rank near the bottom of the country in kick return yardage.
Northern Illinois has been poor at punt and kickoff returns, and the Huskies are just four of eight on field goals. Two things they do well are cover kickoffs and punting.
Toledo will win if…
The Rockets play well defensively. Chances are Toledo will put up some points against Northern Illinois' subpar defense, so if UT can keep the Huskies' offense in check, the path to victory is made much easier. A fast start isn't imperative, but it would provide Toledo with a boost, especially playing against either a hobbled QB or a backup.
Northern Illinois will win if…
The Huskies hit Toledo in the mouth, and the Rockets don't respond. Northern Illinois deserves credit for its 2021 season, but it no doubt was a charmed run. It looks like their luck has run out, as injuries and losses mount in 2022. But the Huskies have had the upper hand against Toledo for more than a decade, especially in DeKalb. If NIU gets up early on the strength of running back Harrison Waylee, the pressure (and past) could creep into the minds of the Rockets.
View from the other side
Eddie Carifio, DeKalb Daily Chronicle sports editor: “It's weird talking about backs against the wall in a Week 2 contest, but that's where NIU is. A loss and the Huskies are essentially three games behind Toledo after just two MAC games. We don't really know what the NIU starting lineup will look like, especially at quarterback with Rocky Lombardi having missed the last two games. While Ethan Hampton has looked good at times and Justin Lynch (yes, Jordan’s brother) has come on as a kind of wildcat relief quarterback, the team hasn't been making the key plays Lombardi has. If he's back, it's a very good sign the Huskies can turn things around. If not, not that another loss is imminent, but it certainly makes things more difficult. Toledo 41, Northern Illinois 35.”
First Published October 6, 2022, 4:21 p.m.
