Jason Candle got his second Mid-American Conference championship.
Now, he wants another bowl victory.
The seventh-year Toledo coach debuted with a win in the 2015 Boca Raton Bowl. In the four subsequent postseason games, Toledo has come up empty in two trips to Alabama against Appalachian State and two trips to the Bahamas, losing to Florida International and Middle Tennessee State.
The Rockets are a five-point favorite over Liberty in the Boca Raton Bowl, and a two-game winning streak to end the season — the MAC title and bowl game — would mark a very Merry Christmas at the Candle household.
“We want to do the best job we can to send [our seniors] off with a win,” Candle said.
Toledo rush offense vs. Liberty rush defense
The Rockets are coming off one of their best rushing performances of the season, gaining 236 yards and averaging more than five yards per carry against the MAC’s best rush defense. Toledo has the nation’s No. 49 rushing offense, with 178 yards per game and 22 touchdowns.
Tailback Jacquez Stuart is the team’s leading rusher, with 659 yards and four touchdowns on 111 carries. Quarterback Dequan Finn has 608 yards, and running backs Peny Boone and Micah Kelly have 418 and 376 yards, respectively.
In Boca Raton, UT will face a defense that’s ranked one spot lower than the Bobcats. Liberty gives up 144 rushing yards per game and opponents have scored 19 rushing touchdowns this season. During the Flames’ three-game losing streak, opponents have rushed for 599 yards and 10 touchdowns.
The biggest run stuffers for Liberty are defensive end Durrell Johnson, who leads the nation with 22.5 tackles for loss, and defensive tackle Dennis Osagiede (12.5 TFLs). Linebacker Ahmad Walker (11 TFLs) entered the transfer portal.
■ Edge: Even
Toledo pass offense vs. Liberty pass defense
Toledo’s passing offense has lagged slightly all season, accounting for 227.8 yards per game. The Rockets have 30 touchdown passes and 15 interceptions. One year after Dequan Finn only threw two interceptions in seven starts, he’s tossed 12 in 10 starts.
Finn has completed 59.1 percent of his passes for 2,127 yards, with 22 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Backup Tucker Gleason, who started two games, is 56-of-118 passing for 834 yards, with eight touchdowns and three interceptions.
The biggest deep-play threat is Jerjuan Newton, who has 48 receptions for 788 yards and nine touchdowns. Seven of those receptions have gone for 30-plus yards and four have been at least 40 yards.
Liberty has the nation’s No. 28 pass defense, allowing just over 200 yards passing per game. The Flames have given up just 15 TD passes. They rank 15th nationally with 14 interceptions. Safety Robert Rahimi is eighth with five INTs.
Johnson has eight sacks and Osagiede has six.
■ Edge: Liberty
Liberty rush offense vs. Toledo rush defense
Liberty averages 178.5 rushing yards per game and has 23 rushing touchdowns this season. But the Flames are without Dae Dae Hunter, the team’s leading rusher, who is out with a season-ending injury.
Next in line is Shedro Louis, who has 492 yards and seven touchdowns on 114 carries. TJ Green only has 43 carries on the season, but he’s averaging north of five yards with the ball in his hands.
Toledo allows 146.3 rushing yards and has yielded 24 rushing touchdowns. In the past two games, opponents have rushed for 233 total yards and the Rockets have 15 tackles for loss.
Defensive tackle Desjuan Johnson ranks 11th nationally with 16.5 tackles for loss, linebacker Dallas Gant is 17th with 113 tackles, and fellow linebacker Dyontae Johnson is 40th with 103 tackles.
■ Edge: Even
Liberty pass offense vs. Toledo pass defense
Liberty has used two quarterbacks this season because of a groin injury to Kaidon Salter, who has completed 58.1 percent of his passes for 1,002 yards, seven touchdowns, and five interceptions. The dual-threat signal-caller has 221 rushing yards.
Backup Johnathan Bennett has completed 58.5 percent of his passes for 1,534 yards, 12 touchdowns, and nine interceptions. He has 181 rushing yards.
Notice a trend? They’re very similar quarterbacks, so it shouldn’t matter who is behind center for the defense, though Salter is the projected starter. Similar to Finn, since returning from injury, Salter’s big-play ability has been lacking.
Whoever plays quarterback for the Flames must contend with one of the top pass defenses in the nation, anchored by All-American cornerback Quinyon Mitchell. The Rockets rank 15th nationally, allowing just 185.5 passing yards per game. Opponents have 15 touchdown passes and 12 interceptions.
Mitchell leads the nation with 25 passes defended.
■ Edge: Toledo
Special teams
Toledo punt returner Adam Beale averages 8.3 yards per return, ranking in the top 30 nationally, but overall, the Rockets have struggled on special teams this season. They rank near the bottom of the country in punts and kicks blocked, kickoff returns, kickoff return defense, and net punting.
Liberty is in similar territory on punt returns, punting, field goals, and punt return defense. The Flames are ranked highly in kick returns, thanks to Louis, who averages nearly 25 yards per return and took one to the house.
■ Edge: Even
Coaching
Candle might have a four-game bowl losing streak, but he has two MAC titles and seven years of experience as a head coach. Liberty interim coach Josh Aldridge does not. He hasn’t been a head coach at any level. But it doesn’t mean this is a coaching mismatch. Aldridge is considered one of the top up-and-coming defensive coordinators, and he was a 2021 Broyles Award nominee.
■ Edge: Toledo
First Published December 18, 2022, 3:52 p.m.
