The path to a third consecutive outright Mid-American Conference championship begins Tuesday as the University of Toledo welcomes Ball State to Savage Arena.

Not since Cincinnati from 1947 to 1950 has a team won three straight MAC titles all to itself.

“We would be delighted to accomplish that, especially since [a current MAC team] hasn’t done it. Sure, it’s one of our goals,” senior forward Setric Millner, Jr., said. “But, ultimately, we would like to make an NCAA push and make it past the MAC tournament.”

Despite winning the previous two regular-season titles, Toledo was not the preseason favorite in 2022-23. Kent State received six first-place votes, Toledo had four, and defending MAC tournament champion Akron had two.

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After 13 nonconference games, the Golden Flashes remain in the catbird seat. They are 10-3 with an impressive resume that includes road losses to No. 3 Houston and No. 10 Gonzaga by a combined 12 points.

Toledo and Ball State are 9-4, and Akron and Ohio are 8-5.

“I’m happy with our 9-4 record against really good competition combined with tough travel, but I would like to think we’re better than that,” Toledo coach Tod Kowalczyk said. “We need to get better.”

Here is what we know and don’t know about Toledo men’s basketball at midseason.

Know: Toledo’s offense isn’t a problem

The Rockets have put up gaudy offensive numbers, a growing trend under Kowalczyk. They rank 22nd in adjusted offensive efficiency, according to KenPom. If UT remains at that level all season, it would be the second-best offense of the Kowalczyk era.

Toledo is No. 19 in turnover percentage, 32nd in three-point field goal percentage, 44th in effective field goal percentage, and 50th in free throw percentage. Through 13 games, the Rockets have scored 100 points twice, 90 twice, and 80 five times. Their 85 points per game rank eighth nationally.

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“I think we can play better, but I think that’ll also come with our defense playing better,” junior point guard RayJ Dennis said. “I’m encouraged. I’m excited to see our offensive numbers go up.”

Dennis and JT Shumate are both averaging at least 19 points per game, making Toledo and Marshall the only schools to have two players eclipsing the 19-point mark. UT has six players scoring eight or more points per game.

“I think there are some percentages that have to increase,” Kowalczyk said. “RayJ Dennis is better than a 45 percent shooter. Seth Millner is better than a 44 percent shooter and a 31 percent shooter from 3. Those numbers need to go up. Ra’Heim Moss’ numbers continue to rise. If we can increase some of those guys, there’s no reason why this team can’t be a 50 percent [from the field]/40 percent [from 3] shooting team.”

Don’t know: Can the defense play at a championship level?

There is no question about Toledo’s weakest link  defense. Only 14 schools allow more points than the Rockets’ 79.5 per game. Opponents have scored 80 points in seven of 13 games, including NAIA Lourdes (88 points). UT only allowed 80 points in four games all of last season.

In its four losses, Toledo has surrendered 100, 86, 83, and 80 points.

“Individually, we have to have guys who talk more, take more pride in it,” Kowalczyk said. “We have to coach it a little bit harder. Certainly, we’ve been inconsistent on the defensive end. We have to make people a little more uncomfortable without getting silly fouls. We’re not as connected defensively as we were last year, and we should be better defensively this year. We gotta fix it.”

UT currently ranks a paltry 259th in adjusted defensive efficiency, which would be its worst mark in more than a decade. Opponents have an effective field goal percentage of 51.9 percent, the highest number since 2013-14.

The Rockets rank sub-300 in three-point percentage defense (36.7 percent) and 184th in two-point percentage defense (50.1).

“It’s communication and connection,” Millner said. “The more we talk, the more connected we will be. Let’s face it, [Tyler Cochran] has been out six weeks and he’s a huge part of what happens on the defensive end. Getting him back should make things better for us.”

Know: The returning starters are rock solid

Dennis, Millner, Shumate, and Ross — the core four from last season’s MAC title team, minus Ryan Rollins — have picked up where they left off. It hasn’t been perfect, but they’ve provided plenty of bright spots and are reliable in crunch time.

The quartet averages 61.2 points, 20.2 rebounds, 11.6 assists, 4.8 steals, 2.3 blocks, and 7.3 turnovers per game. They shoot a combined 48.4 percent from the field and 36.4 percent from 3.

“I think we’re in a good place,” Dennis said. “Obviously, we aren’t playing our best ball yet. But we’re encouraged and have a chance to be playing our best ball. We know what we need to fix and clean up.”

Don’t know: Will Tyler Cochran stay healthy?

This is one of the biggest questions surrounding Toledo basketball. The 6-foot-2 transfer guard from Ball State (and Northern Illinois) has proven to be one of the top defenders in the MAC and a player who makes those around him better when he’s on the court.

The problem for the Rockets is that Cochran’s only played once since Thanksgiving.

“He’s just so tough,” Kowalczyk said. “He doesn’t need the ball to be successful. When you add a guy like that, you’re adding a lot.”

Cochran suffered a toe injury late in the second half against East Carolina in the Gulf Coast Showcase. He sat out two games before returning for UT’s loss at Georga Mason.

Kowalczyk has been aiming for Cochran to return for the MAC schedule, but his status remains uncertain.

Cochran is averaging 9.0 points, 5.2 rebounds, 1.2 assists, and 1.8 steals per game.

“He makes us way, way, way better,” Millner said. “He’s so versatile on both ends of the court. He can guard the 1 through 5 and play the 1 through 5. Getting him back will give us a heck of a push.”

Cochran’s value was never more evident than during Toledo’s 93-85 win over Alabama-Birmingham, a 2022 NCAA tournament team that’s in line to make the Big Dance a second consecutive season. He had 13 points on 5-of-7 shooting, seven rebounds, three assists, four steals, and one blocked shot in 29 minutes.

Cochran had 11 steals in the first five games.

“When he’s on the floor, even if we’re not guarding as well, he’ll make our defense look good,” Dennis said. “He’s going to make us so much better at both ends. We’ve had some great practices defensively, and we know that’s the elephant in the room. I think it’ll be interesting to see how we defend from here on out.”

First Published January 2, 2023, 5:22 p.m.