A familiar scene unfolded inside Savage Arena on Tuesday night.
Not Toledo’s season-high fifth consecutive victory, but another opening tip won by UT forward Setric Millner, Jr.
He’s 15-5 on the year, and it’s not like Millner is the next coming of Shaquille O’Neal. He’s listed at 6-foot-7 — and 6-6 might be more accurate — but Millner can jump and, more importantly, he’s skilled at leaving the ground when the basketball leaves the official’s hand.
■ Matchup: Bowling Green (10-10, 4-3 MAC) at Toledo (14-6, 5-2).
■ When: Saturday, 2 p.m.
■ How to watch: ESPN3.
■ Series lately: The series has been close of late with the teams splitting the last six matchups, but BGSU has won two of the last three games at UT.
“Sometimes I catch myself jumping a little bit too early,” Millner said. “But as soon as the ref lets the ball out of his hands, I get up there. It’s about me and the ball. I think I have a chance to get the ball against anybody.”
The stats bear out in his favor. One of Millner’s losses came against 7-foot-1 Marshall center Micah Handlogten, but height doesn’t guarantee success. Just ask Richmond 7-footer Neal Quinn, who lost the tip to Millner.
Ben Wallace, Josh Smith, DeAndre Jordan, Tim Duncan, Andre Drummond, Marc Gasol, Marcus Camby, Chris Bosh, Samuel Dalembert, Steven Adams, Joakim Noah, and Marcin Gortat are among the winningest jump ball players in NBA history. None are 7-footers. Wallace and Smith are only 6-9, and they won a combined 1,211 jump balls in their careers.
O’Neal is the all-time leader with 998, owning a 73.2 win percentage.
“For me, it’s a timing thing,” Jordan told the Action Network. “There are obviously some guys who feel like you’re more athletic than, taller than at times, and I know I can get these. But with some guys, they’re the same athletically as you, guys like Andre Drummond, Rudy Gobert, Tyson Chandler.
“Some have little tricks, bumping into your arm, going into your body, stuff like that. I’m not going to say their names because I don’t want them to pick up on it. Then there are certain guys who I’m like, ‘I know what you do,’ so I got to adjust how I’m going at this tip. Some people will dump your arm before you go up or hit your body. They know who they are because I’ll see them and be like, ‘OK, I know what time it is.’”
Toledo’s record is 11-4 when Millner wins the tip. According to dnaofsports.com, the team that wins the opening tip in the NBA wins the game 52.5 percent of the time. There is no statistic available for college.
UT practices tips in practice and pays attention to how the opponent operates. There’s a strategy not just for the opening tip but also if the game were to go to overtime. The angle the official throws the ball can impact who gets the ball.
The Rockets place their players in specific areas related to the opponent’s alignment, and Millner alerts someone to know he’s coming their way.
“He anticipates,” Toledo coach Tod Kowalczyk said. “He’s a quick jumper. He’s good at it.”
In eight of Millner’s 15 wins, Toledo has scored on its opening possession. JT Shumate had the first points on four of those occasions.
“It’s nice to strike first,” he said. “Seth is always undersized, so it’s really impressive. Getting up quick is important. I think there’s something to it. It starts the game trending in your favor. It’s always nice to see the first shot go in. It starts you off on a good rhythm. Seeing a 3 go in is so nice.”
The numbers back up Shumate’s assessment, as Toledo is 7-1 in games it scores on the first possession after winning the tip. In those eight games, the Rockets shot a combined 51.6 percent. The season average is 48.5 percent, lending credence to the belief that early baskets instill confidence.
“You always want to start games fast,” junior guard RayJ Dennis said. “We start with an aggressive mindset and try to get one quick out of the gate. I think there’s a lot of value in [winning the tip and scoring first]. It’s just an energy boost, a confidence boost. Energy is contagious. If you get that first bucket, everyone gets going.”
Ironically, Millner, who fiercely wants to win every tipoff, prefers to play defense first, noting that a defensive stop to start the game actually creates better offense.
“We just want to be aggressive,” Kowalczyk said. “Does it mean anything? I think it does. I think it gives our guys confidence that we’re playing downhill or playing to win. It’s important.”
First Published January 27, 2023, 6:36 p.m.