Tod Kowalczyk isn’t interested in hearing from anybody who diminishes what Toledo accomplished during the 2022-23 men’s basketball season.
“Very successful season,” Kowalczyk said after UT’s loss to Michigan in the NIT. “A historic season. Look at the history that was made. There were a lot of first times, and we’ve had a lot of first-time things in our program the last five, six years.
“Obviously disappointed by our conference tournament championship game, but not disappointed in our effort. Disappointed that we lost and disappointed that some guys didn’t play well. We’ll all have regrets about that. But zero regrets on our season. And our season will never be defined by one game.”
It’s true that it was historic, as the Rockets won their third consecutive outright Mid-American Conference championship and had a school-record 17-game win streak. But it’s also true that UT came up short of the NCAA tournament for a third straight season as the No. 1 seed in the MAC tournament.
No one should deem the season a failure. Categorizing the ending as disappointing is accurate, though. The drama and euphoria associated with the Toledo women’s first-round NCAA tournament upset further enhanced the yearning for March Madness success on the men’s side.
Here are four keys to the 2023-24 season and how Toledo can break through in the postseason.
Holding on to RayJ Dennis
The most important piece of next season is Dennis, the reigning MAC player of the year. His feel for the game and how to get teammates involved has a significant impact on the outcome. When he isn’t scoring, Dennis is usually facilitating for someone else.
Dennis will almost certainly throw his name into the NBA draft, and he’ll just as likely pull out before the final deadline. It will give him an opportunity to receive valuable feedback and a checklist of items to improve. In the end, Dennis and Toledo will be better for it.
The fear consuming most Toledo fans is the thought that a Power Five school will swoop in and steal Dennis. The likelihood of that occurring is low. Kowalczyk and UT’s staff wanted Dennis out of high school and never cut ties with him, even after Dennis went to Boise State. Their belief isn’t lost on Dennis and neither is Kowalczyk’s system in which Dennis has flourished. Dante Maddox, Jr., and Tyler Cochran are also longtime friends of Dennis.
“I think RayJ Dennis is the ultimate Rocket,” Kowalczyk said.
Ryan Rollins got to the NBA from Toledo. Dennis can, too. A cautionary tale of what can happen when you transfer up is Marreon Jackson’s season at Arizona State.
Find replacements for JT Shumate and Setric Millner, Jr.
Easier said than done, right? The 6-foot-7 Shumate, a Division II transfer, and 6-foot-7 Millner, who came from Cleveland State and a Florida JUCO, developed into offensive forces, averaging a combined 32.1 points, 10.7 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 1.7 steals, and 1.5 blocks per game last season.
Shumate shot better than 50 percent from the field and 40 percent from 3-point range, a big reason why KenPom rated him as one of the top offensive players in college basketball. Millner shot 42 percent from 3 and just under 50 percent from the field.
Javan Simmons, a 6-foot-7 forward who redshirted in 2022-23, is stronger and should be more effective nearer to the basket than Shumate and Millner. His outside range isn’t as good but it was a point of emphasis in workouts with Jeff Massey.
“I feel so good about Javan Simmons, but he’s not in the mold of JT Shumate,” Kowalczyk said. “He’ll be a good player for us, but again, next year he’ll be a freshman. We would like to have more size. There’s no question about that.”
Where will the other replacements come from? The transfer portal, of course. Few coaches have done a better job than Kowalczyk at mining the transfer market for productive players. There’s no reason to think he will miss during this offseason, especially since Toledo has marketed itself as a worthy destination.
“I don’t know why any transfer wouldn’t want to play for the University of Toledo,” Kowalczyk said. “This would be a great infomercial. Look at what they’ve done.”
Play better defense
There were spurts of positive defense for Toledo. But on the whole, it was not a great unit. The downfall was the final two games of the season when Kent State and Michigan each shot 70 percent in the second half. Those numbers aren’t accomplished without bad defense.
The Rockets currently rank 294th in adjusted defensive efficiency, according to KenPom, the lowest ranking since Kowalczyk’s first season. UT gave up 76.9 points per game, more than all but 34 teams.
Opponents shot 46.1 percent from the field and 36.6 percent from 3-point range, numbers that were backbreaking when Toledo’s offense had off nights and when UT played quality opponents.
Take care of business in November and December
Toledo scheduled to put together a notable at-large resume last season. It ended up not being near as difficult as it looked on paper in the preseason, and the Rockets’ own struggles in Florida put their at-large candidacy on life support before Thanksgiving. Another chance to build up solid credentials will be available in 2023-24.
The Rockets will host Northern Iowa, George Mason, Vermont, and Marshall. They play at West Virginia and a holiday tournament in Las Vegas.
The trip to Morgantown is the gold mine for Toledo. A win would significantly boost its NCAA tournament stock, if the Rockets won another MAC title and lost a couple of nonconference games.
First Published March 25, 2023, 2:00 p.m.
