Two years ago, when the Toledo men’s basketball team lost the best player in the Mid-American Conference, no problem.
A year ago, same deal.
Both times, coach Tod Kowalczyk confided that his next Rockets teams would be even better, and, wouldn’t you know it, he was right. Toledo just kept rolling, capturing three straight league titles for the first time since ... ever.
This offseason, the vibe is a little different.
The Rockets are losing their three biggest stars, two to graduation, one to reputedly greener pastures, with league player of the year RayJ Dennis unexpectedly tossing his name into the transfer portal on Wednesday.
While Toledo lately has proven more recession-proof than toilet paper, it goes without saying no one is predicting the program will take another step forward next season.
“Yeah, I can’t say that,” Kowalczyk said in an interview in his office.
But ...
If you expected me to find him bowed like Atlas struggling to hold up the weight of the world — or, in this case, a falling sky — you’d be mistaken.
Just the opposite, Kowalczyk — now 56 and in his 14th year at Toledo — appeared as energized as ever.
“We’re going to have a very talented team ... and I’m excited for the challenge, to be honest,” he said. “The challenge of people thinking we’re not going to be very good, that’s exciting to us, to myself, and my staff. We take that as a personal challenge. Now, we have a lot of work to do, no question about it.”
Count us fascinated to watch the puzzle come together.
For the moment, there’s no spinning the Dennis news.
The loss of Toledo’s most valuable player since the Bob Nichols era is a seismic blow.
Dennis was the eight-cylinder engine who made a Ferrari offense go, a talent as gifted as he is instinctive. The 6-2 point guard averaged 19.5 points and a league-high 5.8 assists for the second-highest-scoring team in the nation last season, a portfolio so special that — even in a conference so divided that you couldn’t get coaches to agree on the time of day — he was the unanimous choice as MAC player of the year.
Better yet, the fourth-year junior figured to be back for one more season.
Dennis entered the NBA draft, but if he withdrew his name — as it appears he will — he planned to return to Toledo. There’s a reason he didn’t go through senior day ceremonies last season, despite having already graduated from UT.
But minds change.
Put yourself in his position, and, after receiving less NBA interest than he might have expected, it’s not hard to see why the opportunity to prove himself on a bigger college stage — and land a six-figure NIL deal — could seem appealing.
Is it a gamble? Sure (e.g., Marreon Jackson, who, after a remarkable career at UT struggled in a fifth season at Arizona State). Is it a gamble worth taking? Only Dennis can say, and he’s deferred comment until after his next move. (The guess here is the suburban Chicago native goes to Illinois.)
“RayJ Dennis was remarkable for this program,” Kowalczyk said. “Had it not been for the [free] COVID year, he would have been graduating anyway. There is zero ill will. My love for him hasn’t changed. Now, do I disagree with the rationale for going into the portal? I do. I disagree.”
Still, he’ll keep cheering Dennis on.
And all Toledo fans can do is wish him the best, while shaking their fist at the basketball heavens.
Go ahead, before we move on, it’s OK to hold one final moment of silence for the opportunities missed and now lost.
What might have been? We’ll always wonder.
If ever the atmospheric conditions were right to end the Great March Drought of Northwest Ohio, it was during these past three seasons.
Truly, the Rockets had a generational alignment of stars, led by the MAC player of the year in 2021 (Jackson), an NBA draft pick in 2022 (Ryan Rollins), and Dennis last season, and all they did was win. They had the 13th-most victories (74) in Division I the past three years.
But it wasn’t to be.
They remained the kid at Christmas time with his nose pressed against the department-store window, the one thing they want most so close yet just out of reach.
As historically good as the Rockets were, it still wasn’t enough to make their first NCAA tournament since 1980.
That doesn’t wipe out the joy they produced along the way. It is just ... damn.
“It certainly stings,” Kowalczyk said. “I’m not going to say it doesn’t. It certainly does. But the [NCAA tournament] is also not the end all. If it is, and that’s the only thing that matters, then we need to change our recruiting philosophy and not care about character and academics.”
OK, great, we’ll have our popcorn ready!
Just kidding.
Truth is, of course, you can have it all — winning the right way — and Toledo will remain in hot pursuit.
It might be hard to share Kowalczyk’s excitement for next season, with the Rockets losing their Big Three (Dennis, J.T. Shumate, and Setric Millner, Jr.) and five of their top eight scorers.
But UT hasn’t won a league-high 220 games the past decade without being more than a little resilient, and, in a conference that will feature more turnover than a pastry shop, who’s to say it won’t be right back in the mix?
At least, the Rockets will be interesting, with a team as gray as it is green.
Half the team will be really old, with four players having two years of DI starting experience: guards RaHeim Moss, Dante Maddox, and Tyler Cochran, and William and Mary transfer post Ben Wight. The other half will be really young, with UT set to welcome a five-member freshmen class that Kowalczyk calls the “most talented group we’ve ever brought in.” Most notably, that includes the blue-chip Sonny Wilson, a 6-foot point guard from Detroit ranked by 247Sports as the No. 137 overall prospect in the 2023 class.
“We're not lacking for talent,” Kowalczyk said. “We're not lacking for experience.”
Ask me today, and I’d expect Moss and Wilson to share time at the point, Maddox and Cochran to fill the other guard spots, and ... I have no idea about the frontcourt. UT has Wight, redshirt freshman Javan Simmons, and Andre Lorentsson, among others, but don’t be surprised if one of its starters is not yet on the roster.
Toledo has two scholarships available, both of which will likely go to transfers.
“We need a tall wing with skills like Seth Millner,” he said, “and we’re involved with a couple we feel really good about.”
For the Rockets, there’s a ton of uncertainty, but, just as Kowalczyk likes it, plenty of potential, too.
“The beauty of our program is we’re based and built on development and culture,” he said. “Our culture will be excellent again. Our development will be excellent.
“You look at RayJ Dennis. He was not even all-conference as a junior and, as a senior, he’s player of the year. It happens because he has an intense desire to work and because I have assistant coaches who are phenomenal at developing players. That’s our biggest priority. At this level, you don’t win with recruiting. People will think I’m crazy by saying that.
“You win by evaluating talent and developing.”
First Published April 29, 2023, 1:30 p.m.
