For 365 days, last season’s loss to Bowling Green has never strayed far from the minds of Toledo’s players and coaches.
Since that November night in the Glass Bowl — a last-second 42-35 victory for the Falcons — UT has won 11 times, including a Mid-American Conference championship and a bowl game. But there’s a nagging pain in their gut.
On Tuesday, the Rockets have an opportunity to extinguish the foul taste in their mouths. If they can get the W, the wait will have been worth it.
“The game obviously affects so many people in our community,” Toledo coach Jason Candle said. “It’s really important to both the cities Toledo and Bowling Green, Lucas County, northwest Ohio. It’s really a branded game nationally. Because it’s midweek, the entire country gets to watch us play.”
Here are three keys for the Rockets:
Ride the running backs
Peny Boone is the nation’s 11th-leading rusher with 1,042 yards, averaging more than seven yards per carry. He’s eclipsed 100 yards six times this season, including a career-best 211 yards against Western Michigan. (Boone had 100 receiving yards last week.)
The 6-foot-1 junior lost nearly 20 pounds during the offseason after ballooning to 250 last year. The weight loss combined with an attitude adjustment has refocused Boone and unlocked the untapped potential in the former four-star recruit. His 13 total touchdowns are the 11th-most in the country.
And when Boone isn’t in the backfield, Jacquez Stuart is. The smaller and quicker tailback has 399 yards on 84 carries. If the quarterback decides to keep the football, chances are he’ll move the sticks. Dequan Finn has 499 yards, averaging more than five yards per carry.
Boone, Stuart, and Finn all rank in the top 13 in rushing in the MAC. The Rockets have the nation’s No. 7-ranked rushing offense, with 214.2 yards per game and 24 rushing touchdowns.
In MAC games, Bowling Green has the league’s sixth-ranked rush defense, as opponents are gaining 136.0 yards on the ground. The Falcons have given up the fourth-fewest rushing TDs to MAC teams (eight). Overall, they rank 48th nationally with eight rushing touchdowns allowed.
Make Bowling Green throw
It’s a double dose of bad news for the Falcons when Connor Bazelak stands in the pocket to pass. Bowling Green’s pass game is inefficient and Toledo has one of the best secondaries in the country. According to Pro Football Focus, it’s No. 1.
Bazelak, a transfer from Indiana, is completing less than 60 percent of his passes this season for 1,211 yards with eight touchdowns and seven interceptions. In MAC games, he’s 57 of 100 for 553 yards, four TDs, and four interceptions.
BG has the nation’s No. 118 passing offense. Only 11 schools have thrown more interceptions (13) and the Falcons’ 12 touchdown passes rank 101st.
They’ll be going against the No. 12 pass defense, as Toledo is only allowing 172.9 passing yards per game. Opposing quarterbacks are completing 51 percent of their passes against the Rockets, the third-fewest in the country. Their nine touchdowns allowed rank in the top 10. UT is 21st with 11 interceptions.
Three Toledo players grade out among the top 33 in coverage, according to Pro Football Focus: Quinyon Mitchell (20), Maxen Hook (32), and RJ Delancy III (33). PFF ranks Mitchell as the third-best overall defensive player in the country. Delancy is sixth.
Mitchell is second nationally with 14 pass breakups and third with 15 passes defended. Chris McDonald has seven pass breakups and nine passes defended, and Delancy has seven pass breakups and eight passes defended.
Hook’s three interceptions rank 31st.
Don’t turn the ball over
In its only loss of the season, Toledo had a costly pick-six, and in four one-score wins, the Rockets have turned the ball over five times. They have six total turnovers in the past two games.
On the season, UT ranks 109th in turnovers with 17. Meanwhile, BG is 17th in turnover margin (0.70). The Falcons have 13 interceptions and 11 fumble recoveries.
First Published November 12, 2023, 6:55 p.m.