Tom Lemming is the pioneer of the football recruiting industry, and he has not lost a step.
Each year, he makes a point to see the top thousand or so prep prospects in person, driving 60,000 miles to catch the big showcase camps and visit hundreds of high schools.
Naturally, most of these players commit to colleges in the power conferences. But, lately, Lemming has taken note of an interesting phenomenon.
He’s become almost as familiar with the recruiting classes at Toledo as he is with those in the Big Ten and SEC.
By phone the other day, Lemming rattled off the Rockets’ 2025 commits.
Gavin Jenkins, the Florida cornerback with three Big 12 offers? “Saw him.”
Shawn Simeon, the Florida running back with offers from Florida State and a half-dozen other name-brand suitors? “Real big catch.”
Maddox Arnold, the Cincinnati linebacker with an open invitation from Purdue? “One of the top linebackers east of the Mississippi.”
And that’s not to mention Toledo’s eye-popping pair of pledges in its 2026 class, including four-star Indiana quarterback Bo Polston, who had offers from Georgia and Michigan.
“I try to see all the Power Five guys in a class,” said Lemming, 69, now an analyst for CBS Sports. “In the MAC, at most, I’ll usually see a third of the guys. With Toledo, I’ve seen almost all of them. This is unusual. This is different.”
This is … pretty damn impressive.
And, honestly, kind of crazy.
Toledo has always recruited well under coach Jason Candle. But in a refreshing paradox — just when the NIL era was supposed to doom all but the richest schools — the Rockets are raising the bar to remarkable new heights.
They signed the highest-rated class in MAC history in 2024 and are off to a stronger start with their ‘25 and ‘26 targets.
With a half-dozen commitments this month alone, the only thing hotter than the pavement lately has been Toledo on the recruiting road.
UT is up to a dozen commits in a ‘25 class now rated 63rd nationally, per 247Sports’ composite rankings — ahead of all Group of Five schools and seven power programs. (By the way, is it too early to mention its ‘26 class — all TWO members of it — is rated as high as 14th by Rivals.com, just behind Ohio State and Georgia and just ahead of Michigan and Oregon?)
Dig a little deeper, and you appreciate that perch isn’t just a reflection of quantity, either. The average player rating of the Rockets’ commits (84.56) has them well ahead of schools like Boise State, Brigham Young, Oregon State, and Washington State, and on pace to surpass their record average in ‘24 (84.55).
“Toledo is the Group of Five team that college football coaches around the country are looking at thinking, ‘That was a great pickup,’” said Greg Smith, a national recruiting analyst for Rivals. “The Rockets have several players that could be on Power Four-school commitment lists right now. Credit to Jason Candle and his staff.”
So, how in the world are they doing it?
There are global reasons a bigger prospect might choose a smaller school — early playing time, the consequences of free agency (read: fewer spots for high school recruits), and so on — but those apply to all G5 programs. .
What’s separating Toledo?
Ask around, and the secret sauce features three key ingredients:
■ Consistent leadership: It’s hard to believe, but the 44-year-old Candle — entering his ninth season leading UT after seven years as a Rockets assistant — is now the 16th-longest tenured FBS head coach in the country. (By contrast, 78 of the 134 FBS coaches are in one of their first three seasons.)
His top deputies are no strangers, either. In these looney and transient times, that stability — and loyalty — counts more than ever.
“The kids see that,” Lemming said.
■ The track record: A lot of schools can tell recruits: “If you come here, you can play on a top-25 team and be a first-round NFL pick.”
Few schools can show the proof.
The Rockets just did it, climbing into the national polls last season, then celebrating cornerback Quinyon Mitchell’s big draft night.
The Toledo football brand is hot right now, and that’s on top of its already strong reputation for player development. Consider: In the Candle era, Toledo’s had 10 players drafted — a total unsurpassed in the MAC during that span. It’s also the most draftees UT has produced in an eight-year stretch since 1969-1976 when the draft was 17 rounds.
■ Relentless recruiting: The main ingredient, by a long shot.
“It all comes down to the power of the head coach and the assistants in recruiting,” Lemming said. “Even with NIL and the portal and everything else, it still comes down to the personality and perseverance of the coaches.The big schools, too — Notre Dame, Michigan, Ohio State — it comes down to recruiting ability, and, when they don’t do well, they’ll blame it on this or that. But it’s all about relationships.”
And Candle and his staff — including player personnel director Bryan Gasser — are all in on building them, in a real way. (Worth noting: They genuinely embrace what college should be about, with 94 percent of their players turning their scholarships into diplomas within six years, per the NCAA’s latest academic report. That’s the highest graduation success rate in the MAC.)
If the changing landscape was supposed to leave G5 programs in the dust, Candle said: “I’m not in the school of thought to take punches when we can throw them ourselves. We're going to be aggressive.”
Which means going after some big fish, including Polston, the quarterback whose commitment to Toledo turned heads nationally. The rising junior called the Rockets’ coaches “the most genuine people I’ve ever met in my life.”
“This is going to be my place,” Polston told our Kyle Rowland last month. “I’ve seen some people saying I’m using Toledo as a stepping stone, and that is not true. I’m going to be there for four to five years, three to four years, whatever it is, because I know coach Candle and [QBs] coach [Robert] Weiner are going to help me get to the NFL.”
Of course, we’ll see.
And, naturally, there remain plenty of skeptics who wonder if Polston will come to Toledo at all. Eighteen months is a long time and Polston is merely “1,000 percent” committed. I suspect UT’s coaches will not be comfortable until that percentage is a million.
Same with all their big-time pledges.
But, until then, this is fascinating just the same, a program’s moment yielding to an opportune swell of momentum.
It should be lost on no one that Toledo’s recruiting heater coincides with the start of the expanded playoff, which for the first time will guarantee the top G5 team a true seat at the table.
We haven’t seen anything like it, just as we haven’t seen a whole lot like these UT classes.
This is unusual.
This is different.
This could be special.
First Published June 22, 2024, 6:49 p.m.
