In the end, Toledo football probably is what we should have expected.

A good team with a fatal flaw.

You might say the wheels came off late in the Rockets’ 24-7 loss to Ohio on Wednesday in front of a couple thousand bone-chilled fans at the Glass Bowl.

But that would suggest Toledo has wheels at all.

As a season that teased with early routs of Mississippi State and Miami (Ohio) continued its crash back to earth, its pursuit of a third straight trip to the Mid-American Conference championship game ended predictably — in its own backfield.

The key stat: UT ran 25 times for 39 yards.

That’s 1.6 yards per carry — an average to which only Blutarsky could aspire — and it dropped the Rockets (7-4, 4-3) to 114th nationally in total rushing.

Maybe we should have seen this kind of season coming with an all-new offensive line, no true feature running back, and injuries forcing UT to MacGyver its way to the finish.

It’s just that, well … the standard is a little higher.

At a time of year when the days shorten, the air cools, and the wind whips, Toledo has usually been able to line up and smash its way to victory.

This is not one of those autumns.

And, ultimately, as much as a dispiriting home loss in a must-win game might suggest the need for sweeping reflection, everything comes back to that.

You can say the night turned on a couple devastating turnovers — fumbles on consecutive second-half drives that helped turn a touchdown lead into a touchdown deficit — and an unfortunate whistle, and that might be true.

To the second point, readers know I almost never talk about the officiating.

The blame game is a loser’s lament, and, besides, the refs — like the players and coaches — are humans performing difficult jobs. Why is perfection demanded only from the men and women in stripes?

Still, sometimes a play is so big — and a call so curious — that it’s impossible to ignore.

That was the case late in the third quarter of a tied game when Ohio quarterback Parker Navarro fumbled at the Toledo 9-yard line.

Navarro was still clearly moving forward and fighting for yardage as the ball came out, but the official ruled his progress had stopped. Because forward progress is not reviewable, the whistle proved as premature as the Rockets’ celebration.

It was a bad miss, and, on fourth-and-goal from the 2 moments later, Navarro punched in a draw for the go-ahead score.

“It was explained to me that they’re not going to give anybody a cheap turnover, whatever that means,” Toledo coach Jason Candle said. “We’ve created a problem in college football — a scenario where we can push the quarterback from behind and the scrum of people continues to move until it hits the ground, and we don’t stop that. On the other side, the minute that a ball carrier is held up, we immediately blow it dead. … It’s frustrating.”

But, in the final accounting, it’s also not why Toledo endured its most lopsided home defeat in six years. (Candle did not suggest it was; he was just answering my question.)

Nor were the mistakes, which were but secondary maladies to the fundamental affliction.

For all the issues — one man’s opinion: quarterback Tucker Gleason is not among them — the one writ largest was Toledo’s inability to control the game.

Which is to say its inability to move bodies and run the ball.

Most years in the Candle era, the Rockets knew where they could go on nights like this, with running backs like Kareem Hunt, Terry Swanson, Bryant Koback, and Peny Boone leading pounding offenses. They led the MAC in rushing last season (198.6 yards) and have finished in the top four in every full season since 2016.

This season, injuries — including to top backs Willie Shaw III and Jacquez Stuart — inexperience, and ineffectiveness have created a disjointed mess.

And never more than Wednesday.

Toledo had all of nine first downs and 212 yards. It lived in third and long and couldn’t stay on the field, which led to the defense — so strong in a scoreless first half that it did not allow the league-leading Bobcats past midfield until midway through the second quarter — finally wearing down late.

Ohio had the ball for more than 41 minutes.

“You guys have followed us for a long time,” Candle said. “We’ve used [the run game] to consistently set the table for everything else. When you can stay ahead of the sticks, sometimes those 5-yard penalties aren’t that big of a deal. When it’s second-and-2, it’s not the end of the world. When it’s second-and-12 and you get a 5-yard penalty, it’s a killer. We've got to find a way to create some type of production there. That’s been an ongoing search for a long time. Trust me, you're not telling me anything I don’t already know. We’ve got to find a way.

“We’re just not getting a lot of traction that way. Injuries have played a part through the course of the season, but I don’t think that tells the entire story. We've got to get better.”

Given the track record, it’s a fair bet the Rockets will — at least next season. (It starts with a much better offensive line, and, while UT has solid pieces in-house, the ability to plug holes through the transfer portal means there are zero excuses.)

But, for now, that’s cold November comfort.

The Rockets on Wednesday showed us who they are.

A good but fatally flawed team, and certainly not a championship one. 

First Published November 21, 2024, 5:38 a.m.