The regular season ended with a thud, as the University of Toledo lost back-to-back games against Ohio and Akron, costing the Rockets a chance to play in their third consecutive Mid-American Conference championship game.

Even with a win over Pittsburgh in the GameAbove Sports Bowl, this season will be a what-if. But a second victory over a power conference team would change the perception.

“The physical toughness that (Pitt) plays with and the fabric of that program is rock solid,” Toledo coach Jason Candle said. “I know we’re in for a very stiff challenge and really looking forward to getting to Detroit.”

Toledo and Pitt have had similar seasons — promising early and a reality check in October and November. Both teams have talent spread throughout their rosters. The problem was consistency — or the lack thereof.

Which team will take advantage of its bowl preparation and end the season with a dose of positivity?

“They are tough,” Pitt coach Pat Narduzzi said about the Rockets. “They are well-coached. Coach Candle’s got a reputation of being one of the top football coaches in the country. His name is always on just about every open power court job out there.

“He just does a tremendous job. He’s developed players. He does it with the best.”

Toledo rush offense vs. Pitt rush defense

Toledo’s run game has been a glaring weakness all season. The Rockets rank 106th nationally in rushing, averaging less than 120 yards per game. No running back has 400 yards rushing and only one player averages more than 4.0 yards per carry.

Pitt ranks in the top 25 in rush defenses, limiting opponents to 115.5 yards per game and barely 3.0 yards per carry. The Panthers have 99 tackles for loss, the fifth-most in the country. Two Pitt players rank in the top 20 in TFLs — linebackers Kyle Louis (15.5) and Raheem Biles (14.5).

Defensive lineman Jimmy Scott (11.5) and linebacker Braylan Lovelace (10.5) rank in the top 100.

■ Edge: Pitt

Toledo pass offense vs. Pitt pass defense

Quarterback Tucker Gleason has completed 61.8 percent of his passes for 2,457 yards with 22 touchdowns and seven interceptions. He ranks 27th in TD passes. The Rockets have the nation’s No. 42 passing offense.

Wide receiver Jerjuan Newton ranks in the top 30 with 949 yards (79.1 yards per game). His 11 TD receptions rank in the top five.

Fellow wide receiver Junior Vandeross III has 763 receiving yards and four TDs.

Tight end Anthony Torres is 32nd with eight touchdowns.

Pitt has been exposed all season through the air, allowing more than 3,000 passing yards (258.3 yards per game) and 20 touchdown passes.

Louis has four interceptions, ranking in the top 20. Defensive back Rashad Battle has eight pass breakups to rank 64th. He is the only Panther to rank in the top 100 in pass breakups or passes defended.

Pitt does have the fifth-most sacks (40.0), with Louis (7.0), Scott (6.0), and Biles (5.5) combining for 18.5.

■ Edge: Toledo

Pitt rush offense vs. Toledo rush defense

The Panthers have an excellent versatile tailback in Desmond Reid, who averages more than 5.0 yards per carry. However, Pitt ranks 101st in rushing as a team, with 128.5 per game and only 14 rushing touchdowns.

Quarterback Eli Holstein is the team’s second-leading rusher with 328 yards on 81 carries.

Reid is the only running back on the roster with at least 30 carries.

Toledo ranks 51st in rush defense, surrendering 138.1 rushing yards per game and just 3.6 yards per carry. The Rockets rank in the top 30, only allowing 14 rushing touchdowns.

UT is No. 31 with 81.0 tackles for loss.

■ Edge: Even

Pitt pass offense vs. Toledo pass defense

Holstein was rolling early in the season but has cooled off. He ranks in the top 50 with 222.8 passing yards per game, completing 61.9 percent of his passes for 17 touchdowns and seven interceptions. The Panthers rank 15th in passing offense.

Wide receiver Konta Mumpfield ranks 60th with 67.8 receiving yards per game (and five TD catches). Reid is Pitt’s second-leading receiver with 564 yards and four touchdowns. Wide receiver Kenny Johnson also has 500 receiving yards.

Toledo allows 213.8 passing yards per game. Opponents complete 57.9 percent of their passes, with 14 touchdowns and 10 interceptions.

Cornerback Avery Smith ranks fourth in pass breakups (13) and sixth in passes defended (15). Safety Braden Awls has three interceptions.

■ Edge: Pitt

Special teams

Toledo special teams coach Stanton Weber has dialed up great special teams units across the board:

● 16th in punt returns (13.9 yards)

● 20th in kickoff returns (24.2 yards)

● 22nd in punt coverage (4.7 yards)

● 38th in kickoff coverage (18.3 yards)

And punt returner Bryson Hammer ranks seventh with nearly 15 yards per return.

Placekicker Ben Sauls is 18 for 21, and he’s 12 of 15 from 40 yards and beyond. Reid ranks 12th with 12.3 yards per punt return, while the Panthers limit opponents to less than five yards per return.

■ Edge: Toledo

Coaching

Candle and Narduzzi have had similar head coaching careers. In 10 seasons at Toledo, Candle is 72-40 with two conference titles. Narduzzi is 72-55 with one conference title in 10 seasons.

It’s a bit of a chess match between the head coaches, Candle is a former offensive coordinator, and Narduzzi was the longtime successful defensive coordinator at Michigan State.

■ Edge: Even

First Published December 24, 2024, 2:32 p.m.